Over the past few weeks, the world sighed a collective sigh of relief as science has gained ground in the fight against Covid-19. With Christmas and New Year approaching, hope spread that the end of 2020 could symbolise humanity's triumph over the most difficult chapter in the pandemic.
While progress remains significant and worthy of celebration, recent news in Europe has checked the world’s optimism. On Saturday, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the imposition of "Tier 4" lockdown measures – the most stringent action the government can take to control the virus – on large parts of south-eastern Britain, including the capital, London. For people in these areas, hopes of something akin to a normal Christmas have been dashed.
Elsewhere in Europe, Italy became the latest country to order a Christmas lockdown. In the Netherlands, severe measures have been imposed on Amsterdam for five weeks. Germany will also go into a Christmas lockdown. In France, President Macron continues to recover from the virus, while experts predict no return to normal in the country until autumn 2021.
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During a press conference announcing the new restrictions, the UK’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty was asked what he would say to people who had packed their bags to visit family for the festive season. “Unpack them," he replied.
Dr Whitty’s response demonstrates the government's frank assessment of the critical juncture at which Britain now stands. The country’s fears now centre on the rapid spread of a new mutation of the virus, estimated to be up to 70 times more contagious than before. There is also worry in Westminster that people's discipline in adhering to measures is waning. And as Brexit negotiations continue to show no signs of a breakthrough, Mr Johnson is forced to confront the imminent possibility of a no-deal situation with the EU. Such disruption, at the same time as a possible third wave of coronavirus infections, would be immensely difficult to manage. Therefore, however regrettable, it is necessary to rein in this year's celebrations.
All of that said, people should not lose hope. Medical experts predict that the vaccines being rolled out in several countries could be as effective at combatting the new mutation as they are with older strains. The scientific community is discovering more about how the virus works and spreads every day, and that will be crucial to protecting lives and jobs. All of this means that governments can dedicate more effort to planning post-pandemic recovery.
Restraint this festive season increases the chance that Christmas 2021 will be spent with family and friends.
Disruptions to religious celebrations, in addition to personal milestones, across the world are a reality of life with the virus. There is comfort to be sought in reflection on the central messages underpinning them. At the core of the Christmas nativity story is the joy of the arrival of a newborn in a stable during the struggle of a particularly harsh winter. For Muslims, Eid – muted earlier this year due to the pandemic – is the end of Ramadan, a spiritually significant period of fasting intended to remind people of the gifts given to them after the Prophet Mohammed's first revelation.
As we emerge from the worst of the virus, fatigue and a lack of discipline is not an option. This is of global, but also personal significance, as restraint this festive season increases the chance that Christmas 2021 will once again be spent with family and friends. In the meantime, we should bear in mind that in our great traditions, hardship and its lessons amplify our celebrations. Through enduring difficulty we build faith and hope in a better future.
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What should do investors do now?
What does the S&P 500's new all-time high mean for the average investor?
Should I be euphoric?
No. It's fine to be pleased about hearty returns on your investments. But it's not a good idea to tie your emotions closely to the ups and downs of the stock market. You'll get tired fast. This market moment comes on the heels of last year's nosedive. And it's not the first or last time the stock market will make a dramatic move.
So what happened?
It's more about what happened last year. Many of the concerns that triggered that plunge towards the end of last have largely been quelled. The US and China are slowly moving toward a trade agreement. The Federal Reserve has indicated it likely will not raise rates at all in 2019 after seven recent increases. And those changes, along with some strong earnings reports and broader healthy economic indicators, have fueled some optimism in stock markets.
"The panic in the fourth quarter was based mostly on fears," says Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. "The fundamentals have mostly held up, while the fears have gone away and the fears were based mostly on emotion."
Should I buy? Should I sell?
Maybe. It depends on what your long-term investment plan is. The best advice is usually the same no matter the day — determine your financial goals, make a plan to reach them and stick to it.
"I would encourage (investors) not to overreact to highs, just as I would encourage them not to overreact to the lows of December," Mr Schutte says.
All the same, there are some situations in which you should consider taking action. If you think you can't live through another low like last year, the time to get out is now. If the balance of assets in your portfolio is out of whack thanks to the rise of the stock market, make adjustments. And if you need your money in the next five to 10 years, it shouldn't be in stocks anyhow. But for most people, it's also a good time to just leave things be.
Resist the urge to abandon the diversification of your portfolio, Mr Schutte cautions. It may be tempting to shed other investments that aren't performing as well, such as some international stocks, but diversification is designed to help steady your performance over time.
Will the rally last?
No one knows for sure. But David Bailin, chief investment officer at Citi Private Bank, expects the US market could move up 5 per cent to 7 per cent more over the next nine to 12 months, provided the Fed doesn't raise rates and earnings growth exceeds current expectations. We are in a late cycle market, a period when US equities have historically done very well, but volatility also rises, he says.
"This phase can last six months to several years, but it's important clients remain invested and not try to prematurely position for a contraction of the market," Mr Bailin says. "Doing so would risk missing out on important portfolio returns."
