Brexit or not, the ties that bind the Gulf and the UK will only strengthen

As Britain staggers towards its scheduled departure from the European Union at the end of this month, the country is divided. Amid limited progress on trade deals and frequent economic warnings, British MPs cannot agree on a suitable path forward. Prime Minister Theresa May might be in power, but she does not appear to be in charge, and millions of Britons are looking on restlessly. And yet, Brexit is not merely a British challenge, but a global one.

Markets dislike uncertainty, and business leaders in the UAE and wider GCC will be keen for the process to reach a stable resolution. In truth, there is cause for optimism. The UK and the Gulf have a long history of fruitful relations. Not only will this relationship endure Brexit – it could grow even stronger.

One of the most convincing arguments wheeled out by the exponents of Brexit is that by unshackling itself from an overbearing EU, Britain will be able to negotiate its own trade deals and reap the rewards. Given the UK's established trade links with the GCC, the likes of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait will be in pole position. Gulf states are already the fourth-biggest non-EU export market for the UK. And on a recent visit to the UAE, the UK's international trade minister Liam Fox laid out plans for bilateral trade amounting to £25 billion by 2020.

For decades, the GCC has tried to negotiate a free-trade deal with the 28-member EU, but it is yet to materialise. Negotiating one with Britain alone is likely to be less thorny. Meanwhile, the dip in the British pound after the Brexit vote in June 2016 has made British imports more economical for Emirati businesses, and trips to the UK cheaper for UAE residents. Some 400,000 UAE visitors are expected on UK streets in 2019 alone. After Americans, they are the highest-spending and longest-staying tourists in Britain.

The future looks bright for the relationship between Brexit Britain and the UAE. But Brexiteers should not underestimate the complexities of negotiating trade deals. In reality, such accords can take years, as Britain has no doubt discovered since invoking Article 50 in March 2017. And with the boycott of Qatar by the Arab Quartet, who accused Doha of supporting international terrorism, the GCC, Britain will have to deal with more than one entity. Britain cannot necessarily offset the immediate negative impacts of Brexit with an expeditious GCC trade deal. But there is no doubt that the longstanding ties between Britain and Gulf states will continue to strengthen, long after Brexit reaches its messy conclusion.

The National in Davos

We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.

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Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.

Pad Man

Dir: R Balki

Starring: Akshay Kumar, Sonam Kapoor, Radhika Apte

Three-and-a-half stars

UAE currency

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Key facilities

Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
Premier League-standard football pitch
400m Olympic running track
NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
600-seat auditorium
Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
Specialist robotics and science laboratories
AR and VR-enabled learning centres
Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills