"We are at the threshold of an agreement that will reduce violence and open the door for Afghans to sit together to negotiate an honourable and sustainable peace." So wrote US envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad, even as Taliban insurgents targeted the northern city of Kunduz, killing civilians and security forces in a triple-pronged attack to overrun it. It failed, but Afghanistan continues to be gripped by violence, despite claims from US negotiators that they are close to a peace deal with the Taliban. The attacks have been seen as an attempt by the Taliban to strengthen its hand in the ongoing talks and to show its military prowess. But the blood of innocent civilians is being spilled in this gruesome display of bloody showmanship. The spiral of violence must end and the Taliban must show its seriousness to being committed to a meaningful, long-lasting deal.
The nine rounds of talks between the US and Taliban officials have been punctuated on each occasion by violence outside the negotiating room. Key to the discussions are the withdrawal of US forces. The Taliban, in exchange, are expected to promise that international militant groups will not be allowed to thrive on Afghan soil. Yet such a condition is meaningless if the greatest threat to Afghans is homegrown. What is more, the Taliban have shown little sign so far of honouring the political process, which should lead to elections later this month. They have refused to acknowledge the legitimacy of Afghan president Ashraf Ghani and said they will continue their fight against the Afghan government.
Nevertheless, it is important that diplomatic efforts continue unabated. There are precedents in engaging with militants, as demonstrated by the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland, which led to a decommissioning of weapons and a peace that has lasted more than 20 years. Similarly, the 2016 peace accord between the Colombian government and Farc rebels ended a war that claimed more than 260,000 lives. The fact that agreement is now threatening to unravel, with some Farc leaders declaring war once again, shows how fragile any peace process is and how imperative it is that talks do not end with signatures on paper.
For Afghans, the Taliban are an inevitable part of the landscape. The group controls more territory than it did in 2001. However, they must show a commitment to laying down arms and putting Afghans first if they expect to be taken seriously. An agreement can only be conditional on a full and total ceasefire. US President Donald Trump’s recent announcement to reduce troops in Afghanistan from 14,000 to 8,600 comes with risks at a time of great volatility. His haste to end an 18-year war before the 2020 US presidential election cannot come at the cost of more lives. There are fears a speedy withdrawal could see Afghanistan plunge into civil war once again and herald a return of Taliban rule and the stripping of rights of citizens. Afghans have a right to self-determination but the coming weeks and months will require cautious steps to ensure they all have a say in their future.