President of South Sudan, Salva Kiir attends the signing of a final power-sharing deal in Khartoum. Ashraf Shazly / AFP
President of South Sudan, Salva Kiir attends the signing of a final power-sharing deal in Khartoum. Ashraf Shazly / AFP

A rebuilt economy gives South Sudan peace the strongest chance



The scenes of South Sudanese celebrating in the streets of Juba, matched by jubilation across the border in Khartoum, were both uplifting and inspiring as two men whose rivalry ignited a civil war promised to uphold the peace, this time for good. It is hard to exaggerate the significance of the pact for the world's youngest country, where daily atrocities have seen tens of thousands killed and four million displaced in just five years.

Although a similar pact collapsed in 2015, there are reasons for optimism this time. Small rebel factions that stormed out of previous negotiations committed their support this time round. Multiple regional governments, including Sudan, Uganda and Ethiopia, got involved.

On signing the deal with Riek Machar, his former deputy-turned-nemesis, South Sudan's President Salva Kiir said peace would hold because it was not “forced on us”.

There is certainly much to be said for African solutions to intrinsically African problems.

But perhaps a greater cause for optimism relates to South Sudanese oil. When the country broke away from Sudan in 2011, its lands produced 350,000 barrels daily of crude oil.

Yet as war raged on, the economy shrivelled and inflation rose to 160 per cent. In turn, oil production stalled. However, Sunday’s peace deal included an agreement between Sudan and South Sudan to rehabilitate and patrol the latter’s oilfields. And Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir said on Sunday that his nation would import its neighbours oil from September.

With the participation of the China National Petroleum Company, South Sudan is well placed to become a regional exporter in East Africa.

Peace and prosperity are interwoven. Growing Juba’s economy by rehabilitating oil production will increase the likelihood of a durable peace. With economic growth comes domestic stability and international investment. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy – one that is essential for post-conflict societies looking to the future.

Peace is far from guaranteed, in spite of the desperation of the people of South Sudan, who have endured five years of bloodshed, displacement and economic ruin at the hands of two men at war. Their plight is symbolised by the great African proverb: "when elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers".

But South Sudan’s fragile peace is more likely to hold if its economy can be salvaged. That is why, with clauses to revamp the country’s oil production, this peace agreement stands the strongest chance of lasting.

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At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

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Analysis

Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more

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The smuggler

Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple. 
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.

Khouli conviction

Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.

For sale

A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.

- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico

- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000

- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950