In the decades-long cycle of talks, inspections and sanctions surrounding Iran’s nuclear programme, much has changed. Negotiators and governments have come and gone, agreements have been struck and abandoned, and the regional picture has become even more complex – particularly after June’s 12-day war between Iran and an Israel backed up by US bombers.
One thing has remained the same, however – the fact that it is the Iranian people, rather than the country’s elites, who will feel the consequences for Tehran’s evasion. Iran is now under broad UN “snapback” sanctions for the first time in a decade after Britain, France and Germany initiated a procedure to bring back restrictions that had been removed in 2015.
Embargoes, asset freezes and other punitive measures now threaten to damage Iran’s already fragile economy. The US dollar was trading at about 1.12 million Iranian rials on the black market on Saturday, a record high according to several currency tracking websites. AFP reported brisk business at Tehran jewellery stores as people rushed to buy gold.
Western powers are far from blameless in this situation; US President Donald Trump announced in May 2018 that he would pull America out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Iranian leaders have claimed that they lack a good-faith negotiating partner since then. But the return of UN sanctions is largely the consequence of Iran’s leadership acting against its own country’s interests and those of its people.
International unease about Iran’s nuclear capabilities is not the product of paranoia. Writing in The National shortly after June’s Iran-Israel war, Elena Sokova, executive director of the Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, said Tehran was “on the verge of having everything, including significant stocks of highly enriched uranium, but the bomb itself”.
More worrying developments may follow the return of sanctions. Tehran could further reduce co-operation with International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and the country’s future as a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons may be in doubt. Now that negotiators on all sides have effectively been sent back to the drawing board, fresh ideas are needed.
Iran’s leadership has a path to peaceful nuclear power, the kind that’s been embraced by several of its Gulf neighbours. The UAE, for example, has struck what is known as a ‘123 Agreement’ with the US in which it commits itself to not acquiring sensitive nuclear technologies that are open to weaponisation. At first glance, such a deal between Tehran and Washington would seem unlikely but the US currently has more than two dozen 123 Agreements that cover 50 countries, including rivals such as China and Russia. Regional models have potential too, such as a Mena version of the Brazilian-Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials, a bilateral verification arrangement.
Such ideas are at least worth considering because the consequences of further stalemate are so severe, not least for Iran’s long-suffering population. Although it is true that Tehran can count on diplomatic support from some countries in the Global South, the reality is Iran found itself isolated after years of problematic policies. In addition, Iran’s economic future hinges on the West’s powerful economies and finance systems. More widely, no-one in the international community benefits when a country’s leadership decides to take its nuclear programme underground.
Given these outcomes and the fact that Iran’s neighbours want a good, functional relationship with Tehran, it is time for diplomats, experts and negotiators to renew efforts to end this cycle once and for all, giving Iran’s people the opportunity to live without this perennial issue hanging over their heads.
