Last month, the US launched large-scale air strikes on Yemen, killing at least 31 people. Aimed at stopping Houthi rebels from targeting shipping in the Red Sea, these strikes amounted to the largest American military operation in the Middle East since President Donald Trump took office in January. More force is expected in the coming days and weeks. But without a political plan in place, force alone against the Iran-aligned militants risks backfiring, with devastating consequences for Yemen and the surrounding region.
Last week, Mr Trump posted a video purporting to show deadly strikes on the Houthis, who control much of Yemen and have wreaked havoc on international trade by attacking ships crossing the Red Sea – purportedly as a response to Israel’s war in Gaza. “They will never sink our ships again!” Mr Trump wrote recently on social media. A few days later, Mr Trump’s Defence Secretary, Pete Hegseth, said Washington’s military campaign against the group was only just beginning. “It’s been a bad three weeks for the Houthis and it’s about to get worse,” he added. Indeed, on Tuesday the militants said American strikes that hit the western province of Hodeidah killed four people and wounded 13, a day after the group said it had attacked Israel and US warships.
The Houthis have undoubtedly posed a threat to global commerce and there is also little disputing that millions of Yemenis living under Houthi rule remain impoverished and malnourished. Yet force alone will not be enough to weaken an entrenched extremist group. Speaking to The National recently, several experts said that US air strikes would not defeat the rebels nor deter them from attacking shipping, calling instead for a diplomatic push and – crucially – the empowering of Yemen’s legitimate government.
This is a critical point. As with Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis have exploited a governance vacuum in Yemen ever since they took over the capital city of Sanaa in September 2014, and subsequently, large parts of the country. The group may operate an economy of sorts, but its tyrannical rule has been marked by a gross mismanagement of governance and chronic poverty throughout the country. Yet, the civilian casualties from the US air strikes, while being tragic losses, play into the Houthis' twisted “resistance” narrative against the US and Israel.
As Thomas Juneau, a Middle East analyst and professor at the University of Ottawa in Canada, told The National: “As long as there is no viable, unified anti-Houthi front in Yemen, the Houthis will continue to dominate domestically and pose a threat regionally.” Therefore, eroding Houthi domination over Yemeni society – and reducing its military effectiveness – requires providing the country’s people with an alternative that can offer them a better future.
Empowering Yemen’s government to provide an answer to Houthi misrule means friends and allies should consider making political and financial commitments to the Yemeni people. They should also offer expertise and manpower to put together a programme for the country that exposes the rebels’ inability to govern and holds out the possibility of a return to stability.
In other words, a more nuanced, long-term strategy is the need of the hour. The Trump administration should pay heed.
