When Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed on X this week that talks between his country and the US would take place in Oman on Saturday, he said the moment was “as much an opportunity as it is a test”. He is right.
The possibility of constructive re-engagement with the US arrives at a timely moment for Iran given the country’s recent domestic and foreign setbacks. Its sanctions-hit economy is under strain, its currency fell below the psychologically important level of 1 million rials to the US dollar two weeks ago and high inflation is one of the many persistent problems facing ordinary Iranians.
Looking overseas, Tehran is confronted by yet more inauspicious developments. The collapse of much of its “Axis of Resistance” proxy network, damage to its military facilities from last October’s Israeli strikes and general international isolation leave Iranian negotiators with a weaker position than they enjoyed ahead of JCPOA talks. News this week that some Iran-backed militias in Iraq may disband and merge with the country’s armed forces suggests a further weakening of Tehran’s foreign influence.
In this context, it makes sense for Iran to repeat the policy of rapprochement it undertook with important Gulf Arab neighbours such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE in 2023. But, as Mr Araghchi said, this will be a testing moment for both sides too. A disagreement about whether these will be direct or indirect talks has already revealed the distance between the two sides. Iran is facing a US that, under President Donald Trump’s leadership, has embraced an unpredictable, turbulent and force-backed Middle East policy, an example of which can be seen in Washington’s repeated strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. For its part, Iran has a history of involvement in long, drawn-out talks that often seem to be more about dissembling than diplomacy.
Nevertheless, there are signs that should encourage some cautious optimism. It currently seems unlikely that the US has any appetite for launching strikes on Iran directly. Last week, Mr Trump’s pick to become chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Lt Gen Dan Caine, told senators at a confirmation hearing that stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons could take more than military force alone. War is not in either side’s interest and this alone may be reason enough for a return to diplomacy.
Morgan Ortagus, the US deputy special presidential envoy to the Middle East, recently made it clear how Washington viewed these important talks. Speaking to The National in Abu Dhabi yesterday, she said: “Let's have some initial meetings and see if there's a way to find common ground to do what the President wants to do, which is to find a peaceful resolution and negotiation to these tough and difficult problems.” Given the circumstances, seeking a way forward while managing expectations is the right way to proceed.
One group that would benefit from re-engagement between Washington and Tehran is the Iranian people, many of whom are tired of a hobbled economy, costly foreign adventurism and the chronic threat of regional armed conflict. An Iran that is at peace with its neighbours and re-integrated into the global economy is the best outcome for its people and the region. For this to happen, diplomacy must be given a chance to succeed. No one is suggesting that this will be easy, but the alternative is much worse.
