Deadly Israeli bombings of schools in Gaza, attacks in the West Bank, a wave of indiscriminate sabotage explosions across Lebanon, dozens of rockets fired into northern Israel by Hezbollah and a Houthi missile breaching Israel's air defences – these are just some of the major but incremental steps taken towards full-scale war in the Levant over the past 11 days. This train of events ought to alarm the international community as it meets at the UN General Assembly in New York.
Yet, despite being faced with the dire consequences of such a war – more lives lost, populations displaced, infrastructure destroyed and economies ruined – the actors involved seem intent on intensifying the tension. Yesterday, Lebanon's Health Ministry reported at least 100 people dead and more than 400 wounded, including children, women and paramedics, in an extensive Israeli air assault on southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. Earlier, Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem said the Iran-backed militants had entered an “open-ended battle of reckoning” with Israel. Israeli media outlets on Sunday quoted the country’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, as saying a plan to use siege tactics against Hamas in northern Gaza, the site of an ongoing humanitarian catastrophe, was being examined.
It is not hyperbole to suggest that the horrors of Gaza could be repeated in Lebanon if all sides do not take an immediate step back. Speaking to The National last week before the annual gathering of world leaders at the UN, the organisation’s Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, made it clear that he felt such a scenario could happen, warning that “we are seeing the risks of this conflict spreading to Lebanon, to other parts of the Middle East”.
Sadly, all sides in this conflict seem unwilling to recognise the scale of the disaster that is approaching. Hezbollah’s fiery rhetoric of revenge and defiance may resonate with those who are fearful, angry and frustrated at Israel’s attacks but it offers little to the very people the militants claim to champion – Lebanon’s civilians. The reality is that the country is singularly ill-prepared for a major Israeli offensive. As The National reported from Beirut on Sunday, those Lebanese who can afford to are trying to rent apartments in the mountains, away from the likely targets of Israeli warplanes. Andira El Zouhairi, president of the Lebanese Association of Properties, revealed that only 10 per cent of buildings have a shelter for civilians to hide in.
Although it would be naïve to suggest that Hezbollah – a paramilitary movement – could sit back and absorb Israeli blows, the organisation can only act offensively; it lacks the ability to intercept Israel's attacks, and its rockets and missiles have not proven to be a deterrent to an emboldened Israeli military. On the contrary, increased attacks on Israel may remove the last vestiges of restraint from one of the region’s most well-equipped militaries. Given the already asymmetrical and lop-sided nature of this conflict, the brunt of any escalation would be borne primarily by Lebanon’s population.
Israel’s role in this volatile situation is also significant. Its military claims to carry out targeted, surgical strikes but the facts paint a different picture. In the past week alone, more than 170 people in Lebanon have been killed by Israeli actions, and thousands more injured. After the detonation of booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to Hezbollah members – apparently without concern for their proximity to civilians.
Rocket attacks, air strikes on urban areas and the displacement of civilians in Lebanon, Gaza and Israel run the risk of creating an unstoppable momentum to a conflict that no one will win. In an interview with The National published on Saturday, US Department of Defence press secretary Maj Gen Pat Ryder said Washington had been “very clear to Israel and others from the very beginning that we don't want to see a wider regional conflict; no one benefits from that. Everyone loses”.
There are also fears that the US may be dragged into a war; in an interview with Sky News Arabia broadcast on Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov suggested some attacks had the “goal of making the United States’ interference in the war inevitable”.
But on the issue of a war in the Levant, Maj Gen Ryder is right – there is nothing to be gained from further escalation. In fact, there is everything to lose.
