UK election is a chance to renew Gulf relationships

Seven months ago, thousands of British people living in the UAE got the news that they would have the right to vote in UK general elections, no matter how long they had been living outside the country.

These Britons and the thousands more who live and work in other GCC countries are a reminder of the close historical and contemporary links between the UK and the Gulf. No matter which party emerges victorious from tomorrow’s vote, Britain is headed for political change, and the country’s friends and allies, in addition to foes and rivals, will be watching closely. The Gulf countries, with their close and historic ties, will be following the vote and government make-up.

It is worth reflecting on the fact that in the years since Brexit, Britain has intensified its co-operation with Gulf states. In February, the UK in a Changing Europe think tank noted that Britain had struck several co-operation agreements with individual GCC states, such as the March 2018 Strategic Partnership Council with Saudi Arabia that was set up to develop energy, defence and trade collaboration. Last year, the UK and Qatar launched a Strategic Dialogue, and in February, UAE Minister of State Ahmed Al Sayegh said 2024 was set to be “critically important” in the trading relationship between the Emirates and the UK.

Good trade ties have been a constant in the Anglo-Gulf relationship; talks about establishing a free-trade agreement with the GCC have been under way since 2021. Figures released in January by the GCC Statistical Centre showed that trade between the UK and the Gulf states was worth $39.6 billion by the end of 2022, a strong increase from the $23.7 billion recorded in 2021.

However, the UK’s foreign policy discourse still seems overly focused on its “special relationship” with the US as well as the tangled issue of how to work constructively with the EU. Given the demonstrable importance of the Gulf – especially when it comes to ensuring regional stability and ending wars such as the one raging in Gaza – London must reprioritise its existing ties with GCC states, especially the UAE, not just because of long historical connections and large expat populations, but because it is responsible statecraft and makes good strategic sense.

There are signs that the Gulf and wider region would be a priority for a Labour government. This week, UK shadow foreign secretary David Lammy said his party wanted three big resets – with Europe, the Global South and on climate change. But he also singled out the Middle East, and raised the possibility of setting up a new contact group with the UK’s Arab partners. In late January, Mr Lammy also said Labour wanted to create a new Middle East peace envoy. “We will work with, not snub, our partners in the Gulf in order to deliver a road to peace and a Palestinian state,” he added.

These are promising words, particularly in the context of the ongoing Israeli war in Gaza. In an exclusive interview with The National this week, Alan Duncan, a former Conservative foreign and development minister under prime ministers David Cameron and Theresa May, said the UK had been “weak and naive” in failing to stand up to Israel in recent years. A reinvigorated partnership with the Gulf countries would only add to the chances of reaching a ceasefire and a longer-term political settlement to the conflict.

In a wider sense, if – as seems likely – Keir Starmer’s Labour wins tomorrow’s election, it offers the possibility of renewal for Britain in a time of rapid global change. When the Conservatives came to power in 2010, Britain was still in the EU, the turbulence of a Donald Trump presidency was inconceivable and direct talks were taking place between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. All that has changed. In such challenging times, it is easy to be distracted but it is always important to maintain the ties that bind.