In December 2017, Iraq’s then prime minister, Haider Al Abadi, declared victory over ISIS, the murderous extremists who had terrorised his country since 2014. During the nearly five years since the fall of its so-called caliphate in Iraq and Syria, the group’s prominence gradually receded as the images of its cruelty became archive footage from a turbulent, more unstable time. For many western policymakers, ISIS became a case of out of sight, out of mind.
Such an approach has proved to be misguided. As other regions continue to be destabilised by conflicts, coups, poverty and displacement, ISIS and other extremists of their ilk are finding new problems to exploit. A recent UN report that ISIS in Mali has almost doubled the territory under its control in less than a year proves that terrorist groups are not a phenomenon the world is viewing in the rear-view mirror. On the contrary, they remain a persistent threat, one that poses a danger in the years ahead.
Sub-Saharan Africa is a case in point. Mali and other countries in the Sahel suffer from interconnected problems such as ailing economies, porous borders and weak governance. These provide extremists such as ISIS and Al Qaeda-affiliated groups with ample opportunity to recruit, gain territory, raise finances and terrorise – or radicalise – those people unfortunate enough to live in these circumstances.
Mali, where in 2012 ISIS set up a so-called Islamic state in the north of the country, has also gone through three coups in the past 11 years, a problem that is now affecting its neighbour, Niger. A month ago, Gen Abdourahmane Tchiani deposed Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum, who took office in 2021 after winning elections. This has undermined counter-insurgency efforts in Niger, where Mr Bazoum had given Paris authorisation for French troops to be stationed in his country to help fight extremists. This permission has since been revoked by the coup leaders who have also demanded the departure of the French, German, Nigerian and US ambassadors. Fears of a military intervention by countries belonging to the Economic Community of West African States, or Ecowas, have only added to a looming sense of crisis.
It is a crisis that energises extremist movements seeking an opportunity to exploit. Speaking to The National, Algerian security and conflict resolution analyst Ahmed Mizab said that instability in Sudan, the Central African Republic, Chad and Mali could make the crisis in Niger the final straw. He warned that it could lead to the expansion of Boko Haram, an extremist group that has for years wreaked havoc in northern Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon.
In the Middle East, too, extremists – although largely in abeyance – are far from defeated. Earlier this month, the UN claimed there are still between 5,000 and 7,000 active ISIS members across Syria and Iraq. Syria has a particular problem, given that 11,000 ISIS fighters and supporters remain detained in prisons maintained by Kurdish forces. ISIS affiliates are also playing a malign role in Afghanistan.
Of course, ISIS and comparable radical groups are not out of mind for those unlucky enough to live within their reach. Their violence and potential for destabilisation remain considerable. Sadly, however, the international community largely does not act in a united or coherent way when it comes to counter-terrorism, less so when these organisations recede from prominence. The fact that many of these groups lack a clearly defined command structure, and are often part of shifting allegiances further complicates efforts to defeat them.
The collection of serious problems in the Sahel that are now gaining more international attention are a chance to refocus on the threat posed by ISIS and other radicals. They should be regarded as a global problem because, once established, their violence spreads far beyond the territory they hold.
