People wait to buy petrol at a fuel station in Colombo, Sri Lanka, in May 2022. EPA
People wait to buy petrol at a fuel station in Colombo, Sri Lanka, in May 2022. EPA
People wait to buy petrol at a fuel station in Colombo, Sri Lanka, in May 2022. EPA
People wait to buy petrol at a fuel station in Colombo, Sri Lanka, in May 2022. EPA


Is Sri Lanka the first domino in a new global crisis?


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July 12, 2022

Yesterday, the office of Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister announced that Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the country’s President, is expected to step down tomorrow.

Mr Rajapaksa’s impending resignation, in response to nationwide protests over Sri Lanka’s biggest economic crisis in more than seven decades, may finally bring the country some respite. Whether it also marks the end of the beginning of a journey to economic recovery will depend on what happens next.

The rest of the world would be wise to pay heed to Sri Lanka’s crisis. Colombo’s plight – drowning in unsustainable levels of foreign debt amid a tough global market – is not unique in the post-Covid-19 developing world.

But Sri Lanka's case is particularly alarming. The country doesn’t have enough foreign currency to import fuel. Soaring inflation and the shortage of basic goods mean that very few of its 22 million citizens can afford to buy food, medicines and cooking gas. Those who can, find themselves trapped in long queues. Power cuts are common, and the healthcare system is on the brink of collapse.

The crisis is the outcome of a number of factors, not least the two decades of unsustainable borrowing on the part of the state to fund large projects that left the government strapped during the pandemic, when it needed cash the most. The tourism industry, which accounts for 12 per cent of GDP, was severely damaged by Covid-19. Other causes include populist policies that the Rajapaksa government implemented over the past two years, including cutting taxes and banning chemical fertilisers as part of its pivot to organic farming.

Mr Rajapaksa’s economic team has approved several measures to mitigate the crisis, including a new corporate tax and declaring Fridays as holidays for non-essential public sector employees. The government has also reached out its neighbours in South Asia. Beyond receiving $4 billion worth of foreign assistance from India, it has requested from New Delhi a $500 million credit line to import fuel, fertilisers and rice. Colombo is also in talks with the International Monetary Fund for a bailout.

These are short-term remedies, however, and it has become painfully clear that the public considers the Rajapaksa government to be part of the problem and not the solution. The President’s eventual resignation, and the formation of a unity government, will be an essential first step towards assuaging angry protesters and restoring the rule of law. Early elections will also be key so that a government with a strong mandate is ushered in as quickly as possible.

Sri Lanka’s solution to its debt problem will, and should be, specific to its particular needs. Its crisis has already galvanised ordinary Sri Lankans and rallied together people of all ethnic, religious and cultural groups, creating a rare moment for a country whose history was blighted by decades-long ethnic strife that led to civil war and the eventual rise of majoritarian rule. Economic rejuvenation would be impossible without stitching together Sri Lanka’s complex social fabric that has been damaged for far too long.

But this week’s events in Colombo may be simply the first of a series of debt-fuelled reckonings to come in emerging economies, if the international community is not cognisant of the scale of the problem. In March, the IMF warned that 23 African countries are now either in debt distress or at a high risk of it. In some of these countries, as well as others, facing a similar problem, debt-funded spending was done too unwisely or inefficiently – failing to bring about the economic growth or tax revenues required to pay it back. The pandemic made things difficult, but the root of the problem is the same as it has always been for a number of countries: a lack of accountability for state finances and irresponsible lending practices from the international community.

In Sri Lanka, protesters’ demands for the government to reform are finally being taken seriously. For others, the time to shape up is now.

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French business

France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.

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Manchester City 2
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MATCH INFO

Euro 2020 qualifier

Croatia v Hungary, Thursday, 10.45pm, UAE

TV: Match on BeIN Sports

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UAE
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Mohamed Usman (vice-captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Imran Haider, Tahir Mughal, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed, Fahad Nawaz, Abdul Shakoor, Sultan Ahmed, CP Rizwan

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Our legal columnist

Name: Yousef Al Bahar

Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994

Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers

Last-16

France 4
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Argentina 3
Di Maria (41'), Mercado (48'), Aguero (90 3')

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Co-founders: Vidyuth Srinivasan, co-founder/chief executive, Ashlesh Sharma, co-founder/chief technology officer, Lakshmi Subramanian, co-founder/chief scientist

Based: New York, New York

Sector/About: Entrupy is a hardware-enabled SaaS company whose mission is to protect businesses, borders and consumers from transactions involving counterfeit goods.  

Initial investment/Investors: Entrupy secured a $2.6m Series A funding round in 2017. The round was led by Tokyo-based Digital Garage and Daiwa Securities Group's jointly established venture arm, DG Lab Fund I Investment Limited Partnership, along with Zach Coelius. 

Total customers: Entrupy’s customers include hundreds of secondary resellers, marketplaces and other retail organisations around the world. They are also testing with shipping companies as well as customs agencies to stop fake items from reaching the market in the first place. 

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Director: Jesse Armstrong

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The Bio

Name: Lynn Davison

Profession: History teacher at Al Yasmina Academy, Abu Dhabi

Children: She has one son, Casey, 28

Hometown: Pontefract, West Yorkshire in the UK

Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho

Favourite Author: CJ Sansom

Favourite holiday destination: Bali

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Anxiety, work stress and social isolation are all factors in the recogised rise in mental health problems.

A study UAE Ministry of Health researchers published in the summer also cited struggles with weight and illnesses as major contributors.

Its authors analysed a dozen separate UAE studies between 2007 and 2017. Prevalence was often higher in university students, women and in people on low incomes.

One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.

It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."

Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.

“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi. 

“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."

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