Afghanistan’s economy has been crippled for years. Until the Taliban swept to power in August, up to three quarters of the country’s GDP was derived from international aid. Even in that context, however, a recent report from the UN Development Programme (UNDP) on the state of the Afghan economy makes for a shocking read. UNDP predicts that the country’s nominal GDP is likely to contract by a further 20 per cent within a year – having already shrunk by nearly half in the past three months within a year. If the decline continues, it may see a contraction as high as 30 per cent.
The head of UNDP in Afghanistan, Abdallah Al Dardari, drew comparisons with Lebanon, although he still said that the scale of the contraction is one “we’ve never seen before”.
Afghanistan is teetering on the brink of a number of disasters. The country depends on food imports. If the economic meltdown disrupts these, 23 million people, more than half of the population, would need food support. If electricity, another key import, is interrupted, 10 million people would be plunged into darkness.
Afghanistan is teetering on the brink of a number of disasters
Between 2001 to 2020, an estimated $150 billion in non-military US aid was pumped into the country. That attempt to form a robust state and economy has clearly failed. But depressing results from past failures must not translate into present-day disengagement. With the Taliban showing itself to be obstinate to change, institution building may be difficult. But aid from the international community will still play a crucial role in saving lives. Donors should focus on desperately needed short-term measures to at least stabilise the decline.
Yesterday, there was an important development, when the World Bank said it backs transferring $280m in frozen funds to two key aid agencies in the country.
The UN, moreover, has said it will target a crisis response initiative at “supporting the most vulnerable populations and collapsing micro businesses”. This will help keep many Afghan families alive and afloat. But even as a stop-gap solution, it has limits. Large programmes that reach the most vulnerable populations in such a vast, poorly connected country will be difficult to implement without some oversight or assistance from local Taliban commanders, who could divert a share of funds for themselves or their organisation. Smaller programmes may be easier to implement, but monitoring, evaluation and accountability are difficult.
Editorials from The National
Hard decisions need to be made in order to find an aid model that works for the new Afghanistan. Any assistance is vulnerable to exploitation by the Taliban. That is a risk that must factor into solutions, but not prevent any solutions altogether. Thus far, Afghans begging for help are being met largely with silence from a sheepish world that expresses sympathy for their plight, but offers no way out.
Development experts and the donors who fund them must decide quickly whether and how they will help Afghans survive. There is no time to dither over moral or diplomatic conundrums. For now, it’s the basics that matter.
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Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
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Rating: 4/5
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- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
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Strait of Hormuz
Fujairah is a crucial hub for fuel storage and is just outside the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route linking Middle East oil producers to markets in Asia, Europe, North America and beyond.
The strait is 33 km wide at its narrowest point, but the shipping lane is just three km wide in either direction. Almost a fifth of oil consumed across the world passes through the strait.
Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait, a move that would risk inviting geopolitical and economic turmoil.
Last month, Iran issued a new warning that it would block the strait, if it was prevented from using the waterway following a US decision to end exemptions from sanctions for major Iranian oil importers.
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The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
How to become a Boglehead
Bogleheads follow simple investing philosophies to build their wealth and live better lives. Just follow these steps.
• Spend less than you earn and save the rest. You can do this by earning more, or being frugal. Better still, do both.
• Invest early, invest often. It takes time to grow your wealth on the stock market. The sooner you begin, the better.
• Choose the right level of risk. Don't gamble by investing in get-rich-quick schemes or high-risk plays. Don't play it too safe, either, by leaving long-term savings in cash.
• Diversify. Do not keep all your eggs in one basket. Spread your money between different companies, sectors, markets and asset classes such as bonds and property.
• Keep charges low. The biggest drag on investment performance is all the charges you pay to advisers and active fund managers.
• Keep it simple. Complexity is your enemy. You can build a balanced, diversified portfolio with just a handful of ETFs.
• Forget timing the market. Nobody knows where share prices will go next, so don't try to second-guess them.
• Stick with it. Do not sell up in a market crash. Use the opportunity to invest more at the lower price.
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
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The specs: 2019 BMW X4
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ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
