As another fighting season draws to a close in Afghanistan, reports of talks in Doha between representatives of the government and the Taliban have raised the tantalising prospect of a negotiated settlement to the war.
The fact that talks took place at all is significant, because they represent the first political engagement with the Taliban since the appointment of Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada as the insurgent group’s leader in May.
His predecessor, Mullah Akhtar Mansoor, was killed that month in a United States military drone attack in western Pakistan because he had refused to accede to the peacemaking efforts of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group, which includes the governments of Afghanistan, China, Pakistan and the United States.
Parallel to the two reported meetings in Doha with the Afghan intelligence chief Masoom Stanekzai and an unidentified American representative, the Taliban’s Qatar-based envoys have also lobbied governments on either side of the Arabian Gulf to allow them to open further representative offices.
Those engagements reflect the Taliban’s desire to be viewed as a legitimate entity, rather than as a terrorist group, and to keep the group’s political options open. However, events leading to the talks in Doha strongly suggest that they should not be construed as a preamble to substantial peace talks.
The meetings were preceded by the arrest of several members of the Taliban’s cabinet-in-exile by the Pakistani authorities, reflecting the heavy diplomatic pressure they have been under from the US. That element of duress may have been a factor in the Taliban leadership’s distancing of itself from the Doha talks, following which Taliban negotiators have travelled to Pakistan to seek the release of their detained colleagues.
If, indeed, the talks were sanctioned by Mr Akhundzada, there were likely a political ploy aimed at reducing diplomatic pressure on the Taliban and their Pakistani hosts.
Otherwise, the Taliban has no real reason to negotiate. Its military successes over the two summers since Nato forces were withdrawn from combat operations have exposed the Afghan security forces as a weak opponent.
The Taliban’s successes in 2015 were due in part to the element of surprise. Nobody expected the insurgents to launch attacks on multiple fronts or to attempt to seize a major urban centre such as the northern city of Kunduz, however briefly.
This year, however, it was obvious that the Afghan security forces would come under renewed pressure in the north and south. To that end, the US and its Nato allies postponed the repatriation of their troops and provided trainers to help the Afghans prepare. Special forces and airpower were also made available to aid them on the battlefield.
Nonetheless, the Taliban has been able to seize control of most of southern Helmand province and government forces have been preoccupied with preventing the fall of Lashkar Gah, the administrative headquarters.
That enabled the Taliban to use rural areas of Helmand as a staging post to expand operations into neighbouring provinces, advancing into Uruzgan province to lay siege to the administrative centre of Tarin Kot.
Similarly, the insurgents have used rural areas of Kunduz province to increase pressure on urban centres in northern Afghanistan, culminating earlier this month in the seizure of parts of Kunduz city, for the second time in 13 months. As in Helmand, the preoccupation of government forces with re-establishing control of the city has enabled the Taliban to expand into the rural areas of nearby provinces.
In the circumstances, it would be wholly unreasonable to expect the Taliban to succumb to diplomatic pressure when they have no incentive to do so.
This is not the type of insurgent group that decides to call it a day and come to the negotiating table,” says analyst Michael Kugelman, a senior associate for South and Southeast Asia at the Woodrow Wilson Centre.
Likewise, Pakistan has no reason to take any further punitive measures against the Taliban, because “they are extremely risky, especially in terms of the potential blowback”, says Arif Rafiq, a fellow at the Centre for Global Policy.
“The question isn’t who has influence over the Taliban, but rather could even the best influencer get the Taliban to go all in on peace negotiations and a peace deal? I think the answer is no,” argues Kugelman. Instead, he expects the Taliban to fight for another year to maximise their leverage in negotiations with the Afghan government.
The events of the past two years endorse that analysis. The Taliban has been working to re-establish its dominance of the southern provinces that were its heartland before the US invasion in 2001. So far, it has targeted areas where Afghan security forces lacked capable leadership and the stomach for pitched battles.
Step by step, the Taliban are working to encircle Kandahar, capital of the erstwhile Taliban “emirate”, where they will face a much stiffer challenge from Afghan security forces led by provincial police chief General Abdul Razzaq, a formidable leader cut from the same cloth as General Abdul Rashid Dostum and Atta Mohammad Nur, the strongmen of northern Afghanistan.
Beyond that, little is certain. The war in Afghanistan has not featured in the US presidential election campaign, so there have not been any clear indications from candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump as to what policies they might pursue.
Mrs Clinton is very knowledgeable about South Asian affairs, which suggests she would continue with the Obama administration’s policy and might even prolong US military involvement in Afghanistan. On the other hand, she might choose not to take ownership of what is an unwinnable war because of the American public’s lack of interest.
Mr Trump is a complete wild card. Taken at face value, he is believed to want to abandon Afghanistan to its own fate. But he could seek to take a Putin-esque stand against terrorism.
In turn, the decision on the next US president will have a direct bearing on the politics within the Afghan government. Despite the growing urgency of their situation, president Ashraf Ghani and chief executive Abdullah Abdullah are barely on talking terms with each other or the regional strongmen that make up their national unity government. Had US secretary of state John Kerry not publicly lectured them when he visited Kabul in April, their coalition would probably have disintegrated, rendering Mr Ghani a lame duck.
There are no guarantees that the Taliban will remain a cohesive political force either. The death of its founder, Mullah Mohammed Omar, whose word was treated as gospel, has exposed many divisions within the movement. For the most part, the Taliban have remained unified because the gorup is at war. It may well splinter if and when Mr Akhundzada decides to engage in negotiations with Kabul.
History and current circumstances suggest Afghanistan is in dire peril of descending into the kind of chaos that followed the withdrawal of occupying Soviet forces in 1989. That situation created the Taliban and provided the base to Al Qaeda from which it launched the September 11, 2001 attacks on the US.
Were that scenario to repeat itself in coming years, ISIL would probably be the beneficiary.
Tom Hussain is a journalist and political analyst in Islamabad
MATCH INFO
Newcastle United 2 (Willems 25', Shelvey 88')
Manchester City 2 (Sterling 22', De Bruyne 82')
Padmaavat
Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali
Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh
3.5/5
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
%3Cp%3ECreator%3A%20Tima%20Shomali%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0Tara%20Abboud%2C%C2%A0Kira%20Yaghnam%2C%20Tara%20Atalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Need to know
When: October 17 until November 10
Cost: Entry is free but some events require prior registration
Where: Various locations including National Theatre (Abu Dhabi), Abu Dhabi Cultural Center, Zayed University Promenade, Beach Rotana (Abu Dhabi), Vox Cinemas at Yas Mall, Sharjah Youth Center
What: The Korea Festival will feature art exhibitions, a B-boy dance show, a mini K-pop concert, traditional dance and music performances, food tastings, a beauty seminar, and more.
For more information: www.koreafestivaluae.com
DSC Eagles 23 Dubai Hurricanes 36
Eagles
Tries: Bright, O’Driscoll
Cons: Carey 2
Pens: Carey 3
Hurricanes
Tries: Knight 2, Lewis, Finck, Powell, Perry
Cons: Powell 3
The%20specs
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Mohammed Alardhi
TO%20CATCH%20A%20KILLER
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDamian%20Szifron%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shailene%20Woodley%2C%20Ben%20Mendelsohn%2C%20Ralph%20Ineson%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SE%20(second%20generation)
%3Cp%3EDisplay%3A%2040mm%2C%20324%20x%20394%3B%2044mm%2C%20368%20x%20448%3B%20Retina%20LTPO%20OLED%2C%20up%20to%201000%20nits%3B%20Ion-X%20glass%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EProcessor%3A%20Apple%20S8%2C%20W3%20wireless%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECapacity%3A%2032GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMemory%3A%201GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPlatform%3A%20watchOS%209%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EHealth%20metrics%3A%202nd-gen%20heart%20rate%20sensor%2C%20workouts%2C%20fall%2Fcrash%20detection%3B%20emergency%20SOS%2C%20international%20emergency%20calling%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EConnectivity%3A%20GPS%2FGPS%20%2B%20cellular%3B%20Wi-Fi%2C%20LTE%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Apple%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EDurability%3A%20Water%20resistant%20up%20to%2050m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EBattery%3A%20269mAh%20Li-ion%2C%20up%20to%2018h%2C%20wireless%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECards%3A%20eSIM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EFinishes%3A%20Aluminium%3B%20midnight%2C%20silver%2C%20starlight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%20Watch%20SE%2C%20magnetic-to-USB-C%20charging%20cable%2C%20band%2Floop%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPrice%3A%20Starts%20at%20Dh999%20(40mm)%20%2F%201%2C119%20(44mm)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
MORE ON IRAN'S PROXY WARS
How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
- The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
- The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
- The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
- The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
- The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Scoreline
Arsenal 0 Manchester City 3
- Agüero 18'
- Kompany 58'
- Silva 65'
Gender equality in the workplace still 200 years away
It will take centuries to achieve gender parity in workplaces around the globe, according to a December report from the World Economic Forum.
The WEF study said there had been some improvements in wage equality in 2018 compared to 2017, when the global gender gap widened for the first time in a decade.
But it warned that these were offset by declining representation of women in politics, coupled with greater inequality in their access to health and education.
At current rates, the global gender gap across a range of areas will not close for another 108 years, while it is expected to take 202 years to close the workplace gap, WEF found.
The Geneva-based organisation's annual report tracked disparities between the sexes in 149 countries across four areas: education, health, economic opportunity and political empowerment.
After years of advances in education, health and political representation, women registered setbacks in all three areas this year, WEF said.
Only in the area of economic opportunity did the gender gap narrow somewhat, although there is not much to celebrate, with the global wage gap narrowing to nearly 51 per cent.
And the number of women in leadership roles has risen to 34 per cent globally, WEF said.
At the same time, the report showed there are now proportionately fewer women than men participating in the workforce, suggesting that automation is having a disproportionate impact on jobs traditionally performed by women.
And women are significantly under-represented in growing areas of employment that require science, technology, engineering and mathematics skills, WEF said.
* Agence France Presse
The specs
Price, base / as tested Dh135,000
Engine 1.6L turbo
Gearbox Six speed automatic with manual and sports mode
Power 165hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 240Nm @ 1,400rpm 0-100kph: 9.2 seconds
Top speed 420 kph (governed)
Fuel economy, combined 35.2L / 100km (est)
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 200
Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
The specs: 2019 Chevrolet Bolt EV
Price, base: Dh138,000 (estimate)
Engine: 60kWh battery
Transmission: Single-speed Electronic Precision Shift
Power: 204hp
Torque: 360Nm
Range: 520km (claimed)
UAE Team Emirates
Valerio Conti (ITA)
Alessandro Covi (ITA)
Joe Dombrowski (USA)
Davide Formolo (ITA)
Fernando Gaviria (COL)
Sebastian Molano (COL)
Maximiliano Richeze (ARG)
Diego Ulissi (ITAS)
Company%20profile
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Frankenstein in Baghdad
Ahmed Saadawi
Penguin Press
Results
2.15pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m
Winner: Maqam, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer).
2.45pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m
Winner: Mamia Al Reef, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami.
3.15pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 2,000m
Winner: Jaahiz, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel.
3.45pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,000m
Winner: Qanoon, Szczepan Mazur, Irfan Ellahi.
4.15pm: Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Cup Handicap (TB) Dh200,000 1,700m.
Winner: Philosopher, Tadhg O’Shea, Salem bin Ghadayer.
54.45pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m
Winner: Jap Al Yassoob, Fernando Jara, Irfan Ellahi.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
The 12 breakaway clubs
England
Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur
Italy
AC Milan, Inter Milan, Juventus
Spain
Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid
The story in numbers
18
This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens
450,000
More than this many Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with about 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps
1.5 million
There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m
73
The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association
18,000
The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme
77,400
The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study
4,926
This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee
The Bio
Favourite vegetable: “I really like the taste of the beetroot, the potatoes and the eggplant we are producing.”
Holiday destination: “I like Paris very much, it’s a city very close to my heart.”
Book: “Das Kapital, by Karl Marx. I am not a communist, but there are a lot of lessons for the capitalist system, if you let it get out of control, and humanity.”
Musician: “I like very much Fairuz, the Lebanese singer, and the other is Umm Kulthum. Fairuz is for listening to in the morning, Umm Kulthum for the night.”
States of Passion by Nihad Sirees,
Pushkin Press
FA Cup quarter-final draw
The matches will be played across the weekend of 21 and 22 March
Sheffield United v Arsenal
Newcastle v Manchester City
Norwich v Derby/Manchester United
Leicester City v Chelsea
The Ashes
Results
First Test, Brisbane: Australia won by 10 wickets
Second Test, Adelaide: Australia won by 120 runs
Third Test, Perth: Australia won by an innings and 41 runs
Fourth Test: Melbourne: Drawn
Fifth Test: Australia won by an innings and 123 runs
