Democrats lack cohesion in the age of Trump

The TripAdvisor reviews of the Bavarian Inn in Shepherdstown, West Virginia are pretty good. But Democratic senators, who gathered at the resort 120 kilometres north-east of Capitol Hill last month, were not there for the fine German fare but to work out how the party recovers from an election which handed not only the presidency but control of the legislature to the Republicans.

Grassroots Democrats have been unhappy at what they believe was an inept campaign. Some accuse the party establishment of sabotaging Bernie Sanders, who many believe would have beaten Donald Trump.

The battle for the heart and soul of the Democrats will be hard-fought, but in the short-term Democrats have to decide their tactics over the next two years, while they are in the minority in both houses of Congress. Already opportunities are presenting themselves thanks to the volatile early days of the Trump presidency.

There appears to be the makings of a Republican awkward squad led by Lindsey Graham and John McCain. One option would be for the Democrats to make common cause with the rebels, perhaps gambling on the Trump presidency imploding.

Conversely the party could make friends with Mr Trump on some issues such as infrastructure spending and health care and drive a wedge between the White House and Republicans on Capitol Hill.

On health, for example, Mr Trump’s replacement for Obamacare may not be to the liking of some Republicans because of his determination to keep some of the protections in the original Affordable Care Act. Some Republicans, who want a completely market-based approach, also oppose Mr Trump’s proposals to bring down the cost of drugs.

On a number of occasions he has said he supports allowing Medicare – which provides cover for the over-65s – to negotiate the cost of the medicines it buys. Democrats will be tempted to support the president if he introduces legislation to do this, especially if it is opposed by some on the Republican free market right. However, given how the Republicans tried to block the Obama administration at every turn, there will be some Democrats who would like to give the GOP a taste of its own medicine.

Should Mr Trump’s health reforms collapse, it will be the Republicans who carry the blame and pay the price at the midterm elections next year.

But this would be a step too far for Joe Manchin, a Democrat from West Virginia who believes the party should cut a deal on health care, distancing himself from others who do not want to cooperate.

“I disagree with both sides who want to play politics,” he said. “We can’t go back to what we had before when you were one serious illness away from catastrophic debt.”

Looking further ahead, the Democrats will have to answer the difficult question of how to rebuild their working-class base after millions of blue collar voters in America’s industrial heartland turned to Mr Trump.

Strategists such as Steve Jarding, now an academic at Harvard University, believe the party tacked to the centre at a time when the country was polarised.

“I think the first thing they have to do is decide that they are a progressive party. The least progressive man in America ran as a populist and progressive and ended up being president of the United States.”

Within hours of Mr Trump taking office last month, a wave of protests by women across the US demonstrated the existence of a vast radical base across the country. The challenge for the Democrats is to mobilise this anger into an electoral force.

The first real test of whether the party will swing left will take place with the election of the chairman of the Democratic National Committee at the end of February.

Some big hitters including Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren – the progressive senator from Massachusetts – are backing Keith Ellison, a representative from Minnesota.

But even though this election will dictate the political thrust of the party, it has to face up to the reality of dealing with a populist president and a Republican-controlled Congress, which will try to force through a radical agenda as fast as they can.

This has already concentrated minds, according to one party insider. “Since Trump won that has disappeared and people realise they have to work together. There has also been a soul searching over tactics. The old way of doing things which involved fact, reasoning and logic doesn’t seem to work any more,” the source said.

Mr Jarding, meanwhile, advised the Democrats to wait for Mr Trump’s administration to implode.

The first weeks of the Trump administration have been fairly chaotic. His travel ban on citizens from seven Muslim countries is unravelling in the courts at home and attracting global opprobrium.

“Trump is a powder keg but instead of calling in a munitions expert, he keeps instructing his staff to bring him stick matches,” Mr Jarding said.

“I’m not sure the Democrats could do a better job of exposing Trump’s ignorance regarding policy and diplomacy than Trump is doing himself.”

David Millward is a journalist in the United States