Lebanese officials are increasingly worried about new legislation introduced by the Syrian authorities in early April. The legislation, known as Decree 10 or Law 10, could make it virtually impossible for Syrian refugees to return to their homes. Given the presence of more than one million refugees in Lebanon, how the law is implemented could have existential repercussions for the country.
Law 10 has two components. It allows cities or towns in Syria to designate areas for redevelopment or reconstruction. Once this has been done, former inhabitants of the area are given a one-month period to present proof of ownership or residence, in exchange for which they will receive shares in the property companies designated to develop or rebuild their particular area.
To many observers, the one-month period makes it highly improbable that refugees will go home to assert their right of ownership. Most left Syria under traumatic circumstances, fleeing regime attacks and would not put their life at risk to confirm they own or once leased property. At the same time, many are aware that the real estate companies that will be formed will underestimate the value of properties when determining how many shares to give property owners.
Foreign governments have denounced the move by the Syrian authorities as no more than sectarian cleansing. They argue that the Alawite-dominated regime is looking for ways to bar the return of a large number of Sunnis – a majority among the refugees –who oppose Bashar Al Assad. That is certainly true, yet there appears to be more to this than meets the eye.
The system outlined by Law 10 is strikingly similar to the mechanism used in Lebanon after its civil war for property owners in the old city of Beirut. Most property there was expropriated and property owners given shares in a property company that underestimated the value of their property. Perhaps that helps explain why the Lebanese are so conscious of the potential abuses built into Law 10, which will only persuade Syrian refugees to remain in Lebanon.
Lebanon is particularly vulnerable to the presence of refugees because of its complex sectarian make-up and the fact it has already paid a heavy price for refugees. After the first Arab-Israeli war of 1948, British officials estimated that about 280,000 Palestinian refugees moved to Lebanon, according to the Israeli historian Benny Morris. By the 1960s, Palestinians had mobilised politically and militarily and by the mid-1970s, they were caught up in a war with Christian militias that soon morphed into a proxy war drawing in regional powers.
Because most Syrian refugees are Sunni Muslim, their presence will affect Sunni-Shia sectarian dynamics in Lebanon, with many estimates today putting the two communities on par in terms of their demographics. At the same time the permanent settlement of more than one million Muslims will push Christians deeper into their minority status, adding to their sectarian anxieties.
For all of their crimes, Mr Al Assad and his acolytes might be doing something else by playing with communal demographics through Law 10. They are exacerbating social and economic crises in neighbouring countries. Their aim is to force these countries to normalise relations with Damascus, help reintegrate Syria into the regional order and legitimise its leadership, and assist in financing the country’s reconstruction, despite the fact that Mr Al Assad remains in place.
Syrian allies have already made overtures along similar lines. In a meeting with German chancellor Angela Merkel earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin openly tied a resolution of Syria’s refugee problem with European support for Syria’s economy. While Mr Putin was referring to Syrian refugees in Europe, the logic is equally applicable to the Arab world. There is no doubt that Mr Al Assad also views refugees as a means of securing his political aims.
In Lebanon’s case, Syria is seeking a number of things, even if this has not been explicitly expressed. It would like to have considerable political influence in the country, as it did before 2005, when it was forced to withdraw its army. It wants its political allies to be given a greater role in running the state. And it wants to ensure that Hezbollah has a predominant role, at the expense of those political forces that have long opposed the Syrian presence.
That might not be so difficult. A main opponent of Syria is Lebanon's prime minister designate, Saad Hariri. Yet Mr Hariri has hinted time and again that he would welcome Lebanon's participation in Syrian reconstruction, which would only strengthen the Assad regime. Mr Hariri has also sought a modus vivendi with Hezbollah as a way of securing his own appointment as prime minister. This is necessary to save him from political oblivion, since he has lost his one-time instrument of political patronage, his Saudi Oger company, a cash cow that went bankrupt and closed down in July 2017.
With enemies such as these and most Lebanese clamouring for a departure of Syrian refugees, Lebanon will be especially susceptible to Syrian blackmail. By passing Law 10, Mr Al Assad has raised the stakes and holds strong cards. It is not enough that the refugees have suffered and been dispossessed. They could face the ultimate indignity of helping to bolster the very man who caused their misfortune.
Michael Young is editor of Diwan, the blog of the Carnegie Middle East programme, in Beirut
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Players Selected for La Liga Trials
U18 Age Group
Name: Ahmed Salam (Malaga)
Position: Right Wing
Nationality: Jordanian
Name: Yahia Iraqi (Malaga)
Position: Left Wing
Nationality: Morocco
Name: Mohammed Bouherrafa (Almeria)
Position: Centre-Midfield
Nationality: French
Name: Mohammed Rajeh (Cadiz)
Position: Striker
Nationality: Jordanian
U16 Age Group
Name: Mehdi Elkhamlichi (Malaga)
Position: Lead Striker
Nationality: Morocco
The biog
Born: near Sialkot, Pakistan, 1981
Profession: Driver
Family: wife, son (11), daughter (8)
Favourite drink: chai karak
Favourite place in Dubai: The neighbourhood of Khawaneej. “When I see the old houses over there, near the date palms, I can be reminded of my old times. If I don’t go down I cannot recall my old times.”
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
THE BIO
Occupation: Specialised chief medical laboratory technologist
Age: 78
Favourite destination: Always Al Ain “Dar Al Zain”
Hobbies: his work - “ the thing which I am most passionate for and which occupied all my time in the morning and evening from 1963 to 2019”
Other hobbies: football
Favorite football club: Al Ain Sports Club
The specs
Price, base / as tested Dh135,000
Engine 1.6L turbo
Gearbox Six speed automatic with manual and sports mode
Power 165hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 240Nm @ 1,400rpm 0-100kph: 9.2 seconds
Top speed 420 kph (governed)
Fuel economy, combined 35.2L / 100km (est)
The specs: 2017 Maserati Quattroporte
Price, base / as tested Dh389,000 / Dh559,000
Engine 3.0L twin-turbo V8
Transmission Eight-speed automatic
Power 530hp @ 6,800rpm
Torque 650Nm @ 2,000 rpm
Fuel economy, combined 10.7L / 100km
DUBAI%20BLING%3A%20EPISODE%201
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Frida%20
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