The region might be witnessing a reverse migration of jihadi fighters from Syria and Iraq. A number of developments in recent weeks raise the spectre of battle-hardened fighters leaving the two countries to supplement insurgencies elsewhere.
If true, this trend could lead to the emergence of new extremist hotspots throughout the region. The supposed migration comes amid other developments that could shape the direction of these jihadis. Growing tension between Al Qaeda and its former Syrian branch, for example, could mean that loyalists to the former will open or replenish branches in new countries, such as in Iraq and Egypt.
The only known such reverse migration happened in 2015, with the reported return of a significant number of Libyan veterans of the conflict in Syria. At the time, western officials suggested that hundreds of Libyan jihadis travelled back to their country, where officials said ISIL was preparing for a fallback once it was defeated in Iraq and Syria.
The return of foreign jihadis to their countries has long been discussed from a western-centric view, mostly how countries in Europe and in North America would deal with returnees. In May, news emerged that French special forces enlisted Iraqi soldiers to hunt and kill French nationals operating with ISIL. Advisers to the French government told the Wall Street Journal that the move was designed to ensure the militants would never return home. The British defence secretary, Gavin Williamson, has also suggested that British militants in ISIL should be eliminated in the field.
But the threat is more real to countries in this region. In the West, fighters would most likely be arrested or would remain under surveillance. In the region, though, jihadis could relocate to another country to resume their activities with relative ease. With the territorial defeat of groups like ISIL in Iraq and Syria, it could take months for jihadis to determine where they can still have safe havens or hideouts, since enemy forces are actively looking out for them.
Jihadis who have difficulty melting in with the population or making their way to ISIL's pockets or shelters out of their areas might choose to smuggle themselves out of the country. Indeed, this trend was reported in an investigation by Buzzfeed this week. The report challenges statements by American officials that most ISIL fighters were killed on the battlefield. Smugglers along the Syrian-Turkish borders spoke of a steady stream of ISIL members and their families leaving Syria to access smuggling routes that would take them elsewhere.
For many jihadis from countries in the region, the next trip may take them to established hideouts, ungoverned spaces or borderlands, where insurgents already operate. There is already a nascent trend of such activities in countries like Egypt, where militants from Libya or even Syria find refuge in the western desert or in Sinai to replenish existing or emerging groups in the country. On Sunday, a top African Union official said that many of the estimated 6,000 Africans who fought for ISIL have either returned home or are en route.
Joanna Paraszczuk, researcher tracking Russian-speaking foreign fighters in Syria, found evidence that Russian-speaking jihadis previously in Syria and Iraq have already made it to Sinai. According to Agence France-Presse earlier this month, French and Algerian fighters have joined the ISIL branch in Afghanistan, some of those arrived from Syria.
A similar trend has been reported among jihadis with Al Qaeda in Syria for months. One source told me in the spring that former Al Qaeda fighters abandoned the battles in Syria and travelled to Turkey, where they were considering new destinations. One such destination was Yemen, although the circumstances of the continuing war and frontier monitoring could make it harder for jihadis to travel.
Al Qaeda seeks to expand its networks, and will likely use existing operatives in Syria to do so. The relative ease of travel and the gathering of jihadis from various nationalities make it a likely scenario that new branches of Al Qaeda would be formed by veterans of the jihad in Syria. Such branches could be formed in countries where Al Qaeda had either failed to open shops or that previous branches had been acquired by ISIL in recent years, notably in Iraq and Egypt.
In Iraq, the group's leader, Ayman Al Zawahiri, has already signalled his desire for a new branch there once ISIL is defeated, and his group has numerous Syria-based loyalists who were once key in establishing the Iraqi chapter with Abu Musab Al Zarqawi, before it formally broke ties with Al Qaeda in 2014. Another source revealed attempts by Al Qaeda's senior figures to recruit inside Syria for other frontiers in the region. In Egypt, Al Qaeda has apparently begun to re-emerge in the country with new recruits or veterans previously based elsewhere.
What we might be witnessing these days is an unprecedented wave, both in scope and nature. The trend could represent a major export of a large number of battle-hardened jihadis from two of the Middle East’s most intense battlefields to replenish key insurgencies across the wider region. While many view the defeat of these jihadis in Syria and Iraq as positive in and of itself, it might take time to grasp the impact of the reverse migration of jihadis to quiet battlefields elsewhere.
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Pad Man
Dir: R Balki
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Sonam Kapoor, Radhika Apte
Three-and-a-half stars
The Bio
Name: Lynn Davison
Profession: History teacher at Al Yasmina Academy, Abu Dhabi
Children: She has one son, Casey, 28
Hometown: Pontefract, West Yorkshire in the UK
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite Author: CJ Sansom
Favourite holiday destination: Bali
Favourite food: A Sunday roast
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
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Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
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How Filipinos in the UAE invest
A recent survey of 10,000 Filipino expatriates in the UAE found that 82 per cent have plans to invest, primarily in property. This is significantly higher than the 2014 poll showing only two out of 10 Filipinos planned to invest.
Fifty-five percent said they plan to invest in property, according to the poll conducted by the New Perspective Media Group, organiser of the Philippine Property and Investment Exhibition. Acquiring a franchised business or starting up a small business was preferred by 25 per cent and 15 per cent said they will invest in mutual funds. The rest said they are keen to invest in insurance (3 per cent) and gold (2 per cent).
Of the 5,500 respondents who preferred property as their primary investment, 54 per cent said they plan to make the purchase within the next year. Manila was the top location, preferred by 53 per cent.
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Dhadak
Director: Shashank Khaitan
Starring: Janhvi Kapoor, Ishaan Khattar, Ashutosh Rana
Stars: 3
The specs
Engine: 0.8-litre four cylinder
Power: 70bhp
Torque: 66Nm
Transmission: four-speed manual
Price: $1,075 new in 1967, now valued at $40,000
On sale: Models from 1966 to 1970
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Guns N’ Roses’s last gig before Abu Dhabi was in Hong Kong on November 21. We were there – and here’s what they played, and in what order. You were warned.
- It’s So Easy
- Mr Brownstone
- Chinese Democracy
- Welcome to the Jungle
- Double Talkin’ Jive
- Better
- Estranged
- Live and Let Die (Wings cover)
- Slither (Velvet Revolver cover)
- Rocket Queen
- You Could Be Mine
- Shadow of Your Love
- Attitude (Misfits cover)
- Civil War
- Coma
- Love Theme from The Godfather (movie cover)
- Sweet Child O’ Mine
- Wichita Lineman (Jimmy Webb cover)
- Wish You Were Here (instrumental Pink Floyd cover)
- November Rain
- Black Hole Sun (Soundgarden cover)
- Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door (Bob Dylan cover)
- Nightrain
Encore:
- Patience
- Don’t Cry
- The Seeker (The Who cover)
- Paradise City
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (all kick-offs UAE time)
Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin (10.30pm)
Saturday
Freiburg v Werder Bremen (5.30pm)
Paderborn v Hoffenheim (5.30pm)
Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund (5.30pm)
Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen (5.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm)
Sunday
Schalke v Augsburg (3.30pm)
Mainz v RB Leipzig (5.30pm)
Cologne v Fortuna Dusseldorf (8pm)
