With the economy booming, Donald Trump should be feeling fairly optimistic about November’s elections.Traditionally the party in power loses ground in the midterms.
However, it is the Democrat incumbents who face the trickier Senate races this time around and they need to flip 24 House seats to win control of Congress.
But when Mr Trump addressed a rally in Tampa, Florida, his focus was on voter fraud and pressing the case for strict election ID laws.
This was, of course, all part of the narrative he has pursued since the election when Hillary Clinton polled 2.9 million more votes than he did.
According to Mr Trump, this was because millions of people cast their votes illegally.
This is palpable nonsense and earlier this year Mr Trump even disbanded the commission he set up to investigate alleged voter fraud.
The question is why the president decided to highlight the issue at all in Florida.
It suggests that Mr Trump and his allies are less than confident about the outcome of the midterms and are trying to get their retaliation in first.
An analysis by Real Clear Politics shows that 35 House races and seven Senate elections are too close to call. Even though Mr Trump’s ratings have been improving a bit, the Republicans have suffered a number of defeats in an array of special elections over the past year.
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Read more on midterm elections:
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The secret weapon of the Republicans is loyalty but it will be sorely tested in midterms
A young Hispanic woman from the Bronx is exactly the disruption politics needs
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“The Democrats should feel fairly confident – history is on their side with losses by the sitting president’s party – and this president is quite unpopular with everyone but his hardcore base,” says Steve Jarding, lecturer in public policy at Harvard School of Government.
He says the Democrats’ biggest problem is the Senate, with the numbers they have to defend versus those the Republicans have to defend, adding the Democrats could conceivably take the House and lose seats in the Senate.
Certainly, all is not sweetness and light within the Republican ranks.
There has been a wave of departures with at least 44 Republican members of the House announcing they are quitting.
On the one hand, this does mean that the GOP will lose the advantage that incumbent candidates normally enjoy but on the other, their successors are more likely to support Mr Trump.
Over the past few months, Trump supporters have secured Republican nominations in a number of states including Virginia, South Carolina, New York, Pennsylvania and Nebraska.
At the same time, Mr Trump’s protectionist trade policies have triggered a row with the Koch Brothers, who are among the Republican party’s biggest donors.
Last month Charles Koch released a video warning of the rise in protectionism and the damage a trade war could do to American farmers and industrial workers.
“This protectionist mindset has destroyed countless businesses,” he warned.
Assorted Koch-linked groups have pushed back against the policymaking in a pointed pitch to the very workers who swept Mr Trump to power in 2016.
The brothers have expressed their displeasure via Americans for Prosperity, one of the groups they fund, which has refused to back Kevin Cramer in his bid to snatch a vulnerable Democratic Senate seat in North Dakota from Heidi Heitkamp.
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Read more from Opinion:
Bannon's populist movement in Europe is gathering worrying pace
We are witnessing the birth of a new and vile authoritarianism in Syria
Iranian hardliners not moderates are to blame for economic malaise
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Mr Trump’s response has hardly been emollient, using his Twitter feed to retaliate.
“I never sought their support because I don’t need their money or bad ideas,” he said as he described the brothers as a “total joke in Republican circles”.
A united Democratic party would be well placed to exploit the GOP divisions but it is split between the establishment and an insurgent left, which has scored a number of notable victories over the past few months.
The most notable example was the victory of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old political novice who unseated Joe Crowley, a 10-term incumbent, in a congressional primary in New York.
In another political upset, Ben Jealous won the Democratic primary for governor.
The results suggest that the “resistance” message which nearly swept Bernie Sanders to the party’s presidential nomination in 2016 is still resonating among party activists in some parts of the country.
Of course, there have been attempts to paper over the cracks.
In the wake of the presidential election defeat, Mr Sanders and Tom Perez, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, went on a national tour to appeal for unity.
Given the ferocity of the primary battles, it is hard to avoid the sense that the Democrats are as bitterly divided as the Republicans.
Election watchers say most candidates, particularly incumbents, will try to localise polls and stress their authenticity. They will try to make each campaign about themselves rather than their party.
Given how fast US politics is moving, making a prediction about the outcome of the midterms would be rash, save for a sense that Congress is likely to be fairly lively once the votes are counted.
John Kennedy once cited the ancient Chinese curse: “May you live interesting times”.
That could very well come to pass.
David Millward is based in the United States
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2.45pm: Al Shafar Investment – Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Day Approach, Ray Dawson, Ahmad bin Harmash
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
MATCH INFO
Inter Milan 2 (Vecino 65', Barella 83')
Verona 1 (Verre 19' pen)
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
THE SPECS – Honda CR-V Touring AWD
Engine: 2.4-litre 4-cylinder
Power: 184hp at 6,400rpm
Torque: 244Nm at 3,900rpm
Transmission: Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT)
0-100kmh in 9.4 seconds
Top speed: 202kmh
Fuel consumption: 6.8L/100km
Price: From Dh122,900
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
Points to remember
- Debate the issue, don't attack the person
- Build the relationship and dialogue by seeking to find common ground
- Express passion for the issue but be aware of when you're losing control or when there's anger. If there is, pause and take some time out.
- Listen actively without interrupting
- Avoid assumptions, seek understanding, ask questions
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
