As protests rage on in various parts of Iran, there is a rush to jump to conclusions about what has happened in the country and what the rest of the world ought to be doing in response. But just because it is the tempting thing to do, it doesn't necessarily make it the right thing to do. That is true probably in Iran, as well as in the region and worldwide.
For partisans of Iranian government hardliners, the conclusion is clear: the protests are a façade, beneath which are "foreign hands" and "external elements". In other words, there is nothing genuine about the demonstrations and the protesters are being stoked by the country's enemies. It's an easy conclusion to jump to. And in Iran's case, the country certainly has many enemies. But denying dissent the legitimacy to ever be legitimate is not a tool of a strong and confident government. It's the hallmark of tyranny.
We've seen this denial many times over the past decade throughout the Arab uprisings. The autocrat cannot tolerate that dissent might actually be genuine, homegrown and not born out of terrorism. Nor can it be dismissed out of hand that one of the factors is the huge investment that Tehran has invested in the atrocious support it has put in Syria to support the Al Assad regime.
But it isn’t just supporters of the Iranian government who are prone to jump to conclusions. Far too many far away from Iranian borders are insisting they know exactly what the protesters all want and that they all want the same thing. It is deeply telling that genuine experts on Iranian politics are loath to be certain about the meaning of the protests, because so much is still as yet unknown. And it is also remarkably revealing that so many of those who are so categorical about the meaning of the protests do not know Farsi, Iran’s main language, nor have spent much time, if any, in Iran.
I remember this sort of approach clearly. It was applied to Egypt, particularly between 2011 and 2013, during the country's revolutionary period. As an analyst, I engaged with many in London, in Washington and in other western capitals and the discourse was often quite telling. During the uprising itself in 2011, almost exactly seven years ago, there were many on the western right who insisted that the uprising was the work of radicals, and that Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's then president, was the source of stability. All too often, such detractors knew little or no Arabic and had spent precious little time in the country. The situation on the ground was complicated and complex, but rather than analyse the country as it was, it was interpreted through a narrow geopolitical lens. Prioritising the experience of Egyptians on the ground was of a secondary concern, if it was one at all.
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This, alas, is the hallmark of much of the analysis and commentary on the region at large. If Iranians or Egyptians interpreted, for example, Chinese politics, few would take their punditry with any degree of seriousness if they displayed no knowledge of Mandarin or failed to prove much familiarity with the country. Experts on French politics from within the UK would not be given much notice, if such experts did not know French or spent virtually no time there, but all too often, these basic standards are not upheld when considering this region.
Iran is not a simple country. It is home to more than 80 million people of several ethnic groups. There are quite possibly many who are unenthusiastic about the ruling system, but its overthrow is not necessarily on the minds of very many. After all, they too live in a region where revolution has led to many unintended consequences, due to a variety of factors. They may not like their government, but they may not be so keen to rush into the unknown either.
What should the international community do? Acting with humility is probably a good place to start. Solidarity with the right of peaceful protesters to engage in civil action without threat of violent retribution is warranted. But it is also warranted irrespective of whether the government is pro-American or anti-American. Such solidarity is a principle, after all. If it is selective according to geopolitics, then solidarity is not a principle, it’s a hypocritical hobby.
In all likelihood, there are a large number of reasons behind the protests in Iran. And their resolution may unfold in any number of different scenarios. But we do have a responsibility to try to understand the situation through the eyes of Iranians on the ground. It is, after all, they who not only understand the situation best – it is they that will have to live with the consequences. For many reasons, inside and outside Iran, one may hope the ruling system may change for the better – fundamentally to respect the innate and fundamental rights of Iranians. But how and when that comes about is going to be an Iranian path.
Dr H A Hellyer is a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC and the Royal United Services Institute in London
Warlight,
Michael Ondaatje, Knopf
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The%20specs
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Company%20profile
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Like a Fading Shadow
Antonio Muñoz Molina
Translated from the Spanish by Camilo A. Ramirez
Tuskar Rock Press (pp. 310)
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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HOW DO SIM CARD SCAMS WORK?
Sim swap frauds are a form of identity theft.
They involve criminals conning mobile phone operators into issuing them with replacement Sim cards, often by claiming their phone has been lost or stolen
They use the victim's personal details - obtained through criminal methods - to convince such companies of their identity.
The criminal can then access any online service that requires security codes to be sent to a user's mobile phone, such as banking services.
World%20Food%20Day%20
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Story%20behind%20the%20UAE%20flag
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Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Plan to boost public schools
A major shake-up of government-run schools was rolled out across the country in 2017. Known as the Emirati School Model, it placed more emphasis on maths and science while also adding practical skills to the curriculum.
It was accompanied by the promise of a Dh5 billion investment, over six years, to pay for state-of-the-art infrastructure improvements.
Aspects of the school model will be extended to international private schools, the education minister has previously suggested.
Recent developments have also included the introduction of moral education - which public and private schools both must teach - along with reform of the exams system and tougher teacher licensing requirements.
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last-16 second leg
Paris Saint-Germain (1) v Borussia Dortmund (2)
Kick-off: Midnight, Thursday, March 12
Stadium: Parc des Princes
Live: On beIN Sports HD
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
RESULT
Wolves 1 (Traore 67')
Tottenham 2 (Moura 8', Vertonghen 90 1')
Man of the Match: Adama Traore (Wolves)
Company%20Profile
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German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
