As US President Donald Trump bids to get re-elected this year, his administration looks at its Iran strategy. AFP
As US President Donald Trump bids to get re-elected this year, his administration looks at its Iran strategy. AFP
As US President Donald Trump bids to get re-elected this year, his administration looks at its Iran strategy. AFP
As US President Donald Trump bids to get re-elected this year, his administration looks at its Iran strategy. AFP

Why US-Iran relations could shift gears in the coming days


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Key developments across the Middle East in recent days have helped to renew a sense of optimism among some about a turnaround in US-Iran relations. But this could yet amount to wishful thinking on their part, as both Washington and Tehran prepare to host meetings over the coming week to decide how to more effectively deal with their adversary.

Decision-makers in Washington will discuss various options to contain the Iranian regime, including perhaps the launch of pre-emptive military strikes. Meanwhile, commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – Tehran's influential paramilitary volunteer militia – will focus on their existing strategies in Lebanon and Iraq, where the regime wields considerable influence and is determined to keep within its orbit at any cost and by any means.

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Member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are said to be preparing for an important meeting with the Iranian army in Tehran in the coming days. AFP
Member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are said to be preparing for an important meeting with the Iranian army in Tehran in the coming days. AFP

In short, far from rapprochement, the coming days and weeks could well witness a further escalation in tensions between the two regional powers.

To be sure there are justifiable reasons for optimism, with Iraq emerging as the primary source of it: Mustafa Al Kadhimi was chosen by a parliamentary majority to become prime minister; he received the metaphorical thumbs-up from regional powers, as well as the Americans, Europeans and Russians.

In a phone call with Mr Al Kadhimi, US President Donald Trump said Iraq was important to regional and international stability, adding that America would continue to provide economic aid. In turn, Mr Kadhimi said Baghdad was keen to have the best possible relations with Washington.

Yet, none of this need necessarily translate to a radical shift in Iran’s policy of control in Iraq – or vis-a-vis American presence in the country – because the regime would simply not give up its influence in Iraq to the US. What's more, I have been told by those in the know that Tehran views Mr Al Kadhimi's government to be a transitional one – a “temporary solution”.

Iraq is therefore no less vulnerable to destabilisation. It remains fragile so long as the US-Iran conflict is not settled.

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Lebanon is a different matter. In the Iranian regime's calculus, that country is essentially a liquid asset so long as Hezbollah dominates its politics and society. Tehran is therefore not as willing to back down there, and is ready to carry out whatever measures possible to guarantee its continued hold.

Of course, this does not mean that Lebanon is more important to the regime than Iraq is. Lebanon is just less complicated for Iran, even though it shares a border with Israel – one of the regime's biggest adversaries. There is a known margin of agreements, red lines, security zones and buffer strips manned by the United Nations Interim Force on the border. There is also now a buffer zone in the Golan Heights guaranteed by Russia, created with the implicit consent of the Assad regime, in neighbouring Syria.

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Washington's position regarding Beirut's fate is not entirely clear. In fact, the only bit of clarity we have is that Washington views its situation exclusively through the prism of fighting Hezbollah.

Hezbollah was recently deemed a terrorist entity by Germany, which according to the US is an effective approach to dealing with its growing influence in the region. Washington continues to crack down on its global operations and networks, even as it applies pressure on European countries to refrain from providing economic aid to Beirut as long as its government fails to adopt radical reforms – including the ending of Hezbollah's domination over the airport, ports and border crossings with Syria.

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The complacency of Lebanon’s leaders, political parties, and its financial and banking institutions, vis-a-vis corruption and nepotism even as Beirut appeals to the world for aid has prompted Alistair Burt, a former UK minister, to call for the Lebanese to reform their system.

“Sort out the corruption and get your economy sorted and stop running to other people," he said at a summit organised by the Beirut Institute last week. "The solutions have got to be in the hands of those who are governing in Lebanon. Ultimately the issue of Hezbollah can't be ducked and that's got to be tackled.”

In this context, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres's report to the Security Council on the implementation of Resolution 1559 which supports free and fair presidential elections in Lebanon and calls upon remaining foreign forces to withdraw from the country  has interesting implications. Mr Guterres said: "I continue to urge the government and the armed forces of Lebanon to take all measures necessary to prohibit Hezbollah and other armed groups from acquiring weapons and building paramilitary capacity outside the authority of the state."

Circling back to US-Iran relations, the whispers about pragmatism are seemingly coming out of some corridors in Washington, because of the desire to avert a confrontation, and from Tehran, as part of a process of reconfiguration ahead of the US presidential election but also as a result of the domestic difficulties in Iran.

Some have also noted that silence on the part of Tehran and Hezbollah about Israel's brazen determination to annex West Bank and the Jordan Valley could be a sign of their willingness to allow the so-called Deal of the Century concerning the fate of Palestine to pass. But the question is: what are they looking for in return? This is a deeper and more important question that may be at the heart of the choice between escalation and de-escalation in US-Iranian relations.

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US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is pictured near a Patriot missile battery in central Saudi Arabia. AFP
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is pictured near a Patriot missile battery in central Saudi Arabia. AFP

Reports suggesting that the US move to withdraw patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia could signal a new assessment that it does not consider Iran to be a major threat are inaccurate. They have also been dismissed by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Be that as it may, the meeting in Tehran will shed further light on the fate of Lebanon. Meanwhile, the one in Washington will give us an idea about whether the mood there is for confrontation, or for a pragmatic truce.

Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute

Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Perfect Couple

Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor

Creator: Jenna Lamia

Rating: 3/5

ULTRA PROCESSED FOODS

- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns 

- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;

- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces

- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,

- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.

Results

1. New Zealand Daniel Meech – Fine (name of horse), Richard Gardner – Calisto, Bruce Goodin - Backatorps Danny V, Samantha McIntosh – Check In. Team total First round: 200.22; Second round: 201.75 – Penalties 12 (jump-off 40.16 seconds) Prize €64,000

2. Ireland Cameron Hanley – Aiyetoro, David Simpson – Keoki, Paul Kennedy – Cartown Danger Mouse, Shane Breen – Laith. Team total 200.25/202.84 – P 12 (jump-off 51.79 – P17) Prize €40,000

3. Italy Luca Maria Moneta – Connery, Luca Coata – Crandessa, Simone Coata – Dardonge, Natale Chiaudani – Almero. Team total 130.82/198.-4 – P20. Prize €32,000

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UAE v Gibraltar

What: International friendly

When: 7pm kick off

Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City

Admission: Free

Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page

UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)

The specs: 2018 Range Rover Velar R-Dynamic HSE

Price, base / as tested: Dh263,235 / Dh420,000

Engine: 3.0-litre supercharged V6

Power 375hp @ 6,500rpm

Torque: 450Nm @ 3,500rpm

Transmission: Eight-speed automatic

Fuel consumption, combined: 9.4L / 100kms

GAC GS8 Specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh149,900

Results

6.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Dirt) 1,200m; Winner: Major Cinnamon, Fernando Jara, Mujeeb Rahman

7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,900m; Winner: Al Mureib, Fernando Jara, Ahmad bin Harmash

7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Remorse, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar

8.15pm: Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Meshakel, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer

8.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Desert Peace, William Buick, Charlie Appleby

9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m; Winner: Sharamm, Ryan Curatlo, Satish Seemar

Zidane's managerial achievements

La Liga: 2016/17
Spanish Super Cup: 2017
Uefa Champions League: 2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18
Uefa Super Cup: 2016, 2017
Fifa Club World Cup: 2016, 2017

Sole survivors
  • Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
  • George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
  • Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
  • Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
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The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

War and the virus
SPECS
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MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League semi-final, second leg

Roma 4
Milner (15' OG), Dzeko (52'), Nainggolan (86', 90 4')

Liverpool 2
Mane (9'), Wijnaldum (25')

Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
  • Priority access to new homes from participating developers
  • Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
  • Flexible payment plans from developers
  • Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
  • DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Tearful appearance

Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday. 

Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow. 

She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.

A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Where to donate in the UAE

The Emirates Charity Portal

You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.

The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments

The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.

Al Noor Special Needs Centre

You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.

Beit Al Khair Society

Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.

Dar Al Ber Society

Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.

Dubai Cares

Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.

Emirates Airline Foundation

Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.

Emirates Red Crescent

On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.

Gulf for Good

Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.

Noor Dubai Foundation

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).

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