When Donald Trump withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018 and imposed new sanctions against its regime, he said the objective was to secure a better agreement. That was always an ambitious goal but, thanks to the strategic and political crisis facing Tehran due to recent ongoing protests in the region, Washington and its Gulf allies may have an opportunity to secure a new understanding with Tehran.
US-led sanctions have no doubt had a hugely adverse effect on Iran's economy. Its petroleum exports are at a fraction of their previous levels. Few multinational corporations are willing to do business with Iran and risk the wrath of the US treasury department. In their attempts to salvage the nuclear agreement, European governments have sought to find a special purpose vehicle to bypass sanctions, largely to no avail. As a result, the country is experiencing a severe financial crisis, projected to contract the economy by 9.6 per cent this year, with only Venezuela and Syria having suffered worse declines.
However, sanctions against a country can make its citizens even more dependent on the regime that runs it, and encourage competing factions within it to circle the wagons against outside pressure, often by rallying around hardliners. This was certainly Tehran's initial response, with the regime deciding its best option was to endure the fallout of the sanctions – just as North Korea, Cuba and Iraq under Saddam Hussein have done in the past. And with Iran determined to develop its sizeable internal market, economic warfare alone was unlikely to radically alter its calculations and return it to the negotiating table.
As I argued at the outset of the sanctions, for Tehran to change its behaviour it would have to experience significant strategic and political setbacks in the region in addition to economic distress. Only such pressure could press regime leaders to try to protect as many of their assets as possible through a new understanding rather than facing continuing losses. Yet the Trump administration has no appetite for the kind of bold steps in regional battlegrounds like Syria and Iraq that would have generated such alarm in Iran. Attacks on pro-Iranian militia groups in Iraq, unclaimed but widely attributed to Israel, are only one example of the kind of pushback, which should also include political and soft-power engagement, that can undermine Iran's destabilising encroachments in the Arab world.
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Shadi Ghanim's take on the protests Iran
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In response to Washington's "maximum pressure" policy, Tehran also initiated a campaign of "maximum resistance" which included low-intensity military attacks on Gulf- and US-related interests. It carefully calibrated and steadily increased the intensity of these attacks in an effort, thus far without success, to provoke a military response from the US and its Arab allies and generate a diplomatic crisis. Tehran knows it has no leverage with Washington but hoped that a military crisis could prompt European, Arab and Asian powers to convince the United States to ease the sanctions in order to restore calm, thereby loosening the financial noose. Meanwhile, Tehran has also gradually resumed its nuclear enrichment activities, losing the sympathy of European states as well as multilateral agencies. All this produced an impasse that persisted for months.
However, a major strategic and political crisis for the Iranian regime has suddenly erupted on the streets of Lebanon and Iraq. Protests in both countries are driven largely by socioeconomic and governance issues, with constituencies lashing out at their own nominal leaders, only some of whom are beholden to Tehran. But in both countries, demonstrators have become increasingly convinced that their grievances cannot be addressed by the existing political systems.
The problem for Iran is that it has nothing to gain and everything to lose from major changes to the political power structures in Iraq and Lebanon. Consequently, the regime and its proxies in both countries have dropped any pretence of sympathy for the protests and relied on threats, intimidation and deadly force – particularly in Iraq – against unarmed civilians to try to crush the uprisings.
As demonstrations continue undaunted, Tehran is increasingly being associated with the corrupt establishments and the brutality being deployed to defend them. So even if Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq are able to avoid the structural reforms that would inevitably weaken their respective positions, anger and resentment towards the Iranian regime among populations in those countries could lead to a decline in its influence in the long run.
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To make matters worse for Tehran, protests have erupted in Iran itself. Demonstrations have rocked more than 100 cities, with the public rejecting a 50 per cent hike in petrol prices – no doubt a symptom of more deep-seated dissatisfaction among ordinary Iranians. The uprising is partly driven by economic pain from sanctions and partly by long-standing discontent with theocratic despotism. In all likelihood, it has also been partly inspired by the protests in Iraq and Lebanon.
While regime change in Tehran remains unlikely, prolonged unrest across the region has produced precisely the kind of strategic crisis that sanctions alone could not achieve. Sanctions might have been a factor in the uprisings – particularly in Iran – but they are not the fundamental cause. Tehran is over-extended and the ruthless and corrupt orders it has propped up at home and abroad are buckling under the weight of their own contradictions.
The regime's response in all three cases has included repression, threats and force while painting demonstrators as thugs controlled by nefarious foreign manipulators. And in Iran its alarm is demonstrated by a total shutdown of the internet – a drastic step that borders on panic. It is likely to be similarly obdurate and defiant in its diplomatic reaction as well. However, it now faces precisely the combination of economic misery and strategic and political crisis that might induce it to talk seriously to its adversaries. It must, after all, staunch the bleeding and prevent even more serious damage.
Purposive negotiations are, and should be, the strategic choice in such circumstances. The US and Arab countries should use whatever positive and negative inducements they can to encourage Iran to reach this conclusion. Given the regional strategic crisis Tehran faces, it might at last be willing to seriously discuss not only its nuclear and missile programmes but also its support for armed militias and terrorist groups in the Middle East.
Tehran increasingly needs a new deal, which means that the negotiations that Mr Trump called for 18 months ago no longer seem implausible.
Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
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Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
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%3Cp%3E1.%20Send%20EU%20border%20guards%20to%20Balkans%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E2.%20%E2%82%AC40%20million%20for%20training%20and%20surveillance%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E3.%20Review%20EU%20border%20protection%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E4.%20Reward%20countries%20that%20fund%20Balkans%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E5.%20Help%20Balkans%20improve%20asylum%20system%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E6.%20Improve%20migrant%20reception%20facilities%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E7.%20Close%20gaps%20in%20EU%20registration%20system%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E8.%20Run%20pilots%20of%20faster%20asylum%20system%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E9.%20Improve%20relocation%20of%20migrants%20within%20EU%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E10.%20Bolster%20migration%20unit%20in%20Greece%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E11.%20Tackle%20smuggling%20at%20Serbia%2FHungary%20border%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E12.%20Implement%20%E2%82%AC30%20million%20anti-smuggling%20plan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E13.%20Sanctions%20on%20transport%20linked%20to%20smuggling%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E14.%20Expand%20pilot%20deportation%20scheme%20in%20Bosnia%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E15.%20Training%20for%20Balkans%20to%20deport%20migrants%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E16.%20Joint%20task%20forces%20with%20Balkans%20and%20countries%20of%20origin%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E17.%20Close%20loopholes%20in%20Balkan%20visa%20policy%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E18.%20Monitor%20migration%20laws%20passed%20in%20Balkans%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E19.%20Use%20visa-free%20travel%20as%20leverage%20over%20Balkans%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E20.%20Joint%20EU%20messages%20to%20Balkans%20and%20countries%20of%20origin%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 502hp at 7,600rpm
Torque: 637Nm at 5,150rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Price: from Dh317,671
On sale: now
THE APPRENTICE
Director: Ali Abbasi
Starring: Sebastian Stan, Maria Bakalova, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 3/5
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
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Spec%20sheet
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.7%22%20Retina%20HD%2C%201334%20x%20750%2C%20625%20nits%2C%201400%3A1%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20P3%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EChip%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20A15%20Bionic%2C%206-core%20CPU%2C%204-core%20GPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECamera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012MP%2C%20f%2F1.8%2C%205x%20digital%20zoom%2C%20Smart%20HDR%2C%20Deep%20Fusion%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%2B%40%2024%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20full%20HD%2B%40%2030%2F60fps%2C%20HD%2B%40%2030%20fps%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EFront%20camera%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7MP%2C%20f%2F2.2%2C%20Smart%20HDR%2C%20Deep%20Fusion%3B%20HD%20video%2B%40%2030fps%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Up%20to%2015%20hours%20video%2C%2050%20hours%20audio%3B%2050%25%20fast%20charge%20in%2030%20minutes%20with%2020W%20charger%3B%20wireless%20charging%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Touch%20ID%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP67%2C%20dust%2C%20water%20resistant%20up%20to%201m%20for%2030%20minutes%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh1%2C849%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company profile
Company name: Suraasa
Started: 2018
Founders: Rishabh Khanna, Ankit Khanna and Sahil Makker
Based: India, UAE and the UK
Industry: EdTech
Initial investment: More than $200,000 in seed funding
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
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COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
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ULTRA PROCESSED FOODS
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- Margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars
- Energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- Infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes
- Many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
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'Brazen'
Director: Monika Mitchell
Starring: Alyssa Milano, Sam Page, Colleen Wheeler
Rating: 3/5
The biog
Favourite film: The Notebook
Favourite book: What I know for sure by Oprah Winfrey
Favourite quote: “Social equality is the only basis of human happiness” Nelson Madela. Hometown: Emmen, The Netherlands
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Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
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Ways to control drones
Countries have been coming up with ways to restrict and monitor the use of non-commercial drones to keep them from trespassing on controlled areas such as airports.
"Drones vary in size and some can be as big as a small city car - so imagine the impact of one hitting an airplane. It's a huge risk, especially when commercial airliners are not designed to make or take sudden evasive manoeuvres like drones can" says Saj Ahmed, chief analyst at London-based StrategicAero Research.
New measures have now been taken to monitor drone activity, Geo-fencing technology is one.
It's a method designed to prevent drones from drifting into banned areas. The technology uses GPS location signals to stop its machines flying close to airports and other restricted zones.
The European commission has recently announced a blueprint to make drone use in low-level airspace safe, secure and environmentally friendly. This process is called “U-Space” – it covers altitudes of up to 150 metres. It is also noteworthy that that UK Civil Aviation Authority recommends drones to be flown at no higher than 400ft. “U-Space” technology will be governed by a system similar to air traffic control management, which will be automated using tools like geo-fencing.
The UAE has drawn serious measures to ensure users register their devices under strict new laws. Authorities have urged that users must obtain approval in advance before flying the drones, non registered drone use in Dubai will result in a fine of up to twenty thousand dirhams under a new resolution approved by Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, Crown Prince of Dubai.
Mr Ahmad suggest that "Hefty fines running into hundreds of thousands of dollars need to compensate for the cost of airport disruption and flight diversions to lengthy jail spells, confiscation of travel rights and use of drones for a lengthy period" must be enforced in order to reduce airport intrusion.
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How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
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