Things could heat up in the already contentious Strait of Hormuz even before the US presidential election is upon us on November 3. Tensions are expected to rise, although they will depend on whether China accepts Iran’s invitation to use its military ports, marking a major leap for Beijing in the region – and, as a consequence of this new partnership, if the Iranian leadership excessively flexes its muscles during its military drills, scheduled to be carried out this month and next.
The US and China, the world's two largest powers, seem to be preparing themselves for some sort of a standoff following a deterioration in relations over a range of issues – especially as Beijing concludes strategic deals with the Iranian regime, which is at loggerheads with Washington. If the deal fructifies, Iran will become forward military base for China. Mindful of the challenges it faces as a result of this arrangement, the US is already developing long-term plans to contain Beijing and Tehran.
The expected rise in tensions could pose a huge headache for other nations in the region – particularly those run by weak governments, such as Iraq and Lebanon – and possibly even a regional power as big as Russia, which has deepened its interests in war-torn Syria.
At this point, the pertinent questions to ask relate to the upcoming US election: what would President Donald Trump do if he wins a second term, having initially forged sound relations with China before the Covid-19 outbreak? What would Joe Biden do if he becomes president?
There is more clarity about Mr Trump's policies vis-a-vis Iran and China: he seeks to seal deals with both countries on his terms, yet he will not back down if either one of them escalates tensions. Sanctions are his biggest weapon, having proved effective against Tehran, and he will not hesitate to use them.
It might make sense to assume, therefore, that Beijing would be hoping to see Mr Trump defeated in November. But that is an inaccurate assessment to make, because there now exists a bipartisan consensus in Washington over the need for the US to contain China's rise. America has demonstrated that when its national interests are at stake, plans are made not over four years but four decades.
And yet, knowing that each individual will handle the challenge differently, the world is closely watching the election saga.
Before that, though, It seems increasingly likely that both China and Russia risk inviting American sanctions after October 18, when Washington's efforts to prevent the lifting of the UN arms embargo on Tehran are expected to fail. With Moscow and Beijing supposedly keen to sell arms to the regime, the Trump administration will likely target Iranian, Chinese and Russian companies, should agreements be signed.
Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has informed the country's parliament of a 25-year strategic partnership deal with China. EPA
Russia is already under pressure from the European Union, particularly Germany, following the poisoning of its dissident Alex Navalny, allegedly carried out on the orders of senior officials in Moscow, if you were to believe US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Germany's insistence could lead to an open confrontation between Russia and the West, possibly triggering European and American sanctions against Moscow. The standoff could also hit economic co-operation between Russia and Germany, especially in the energy sector. This will mark a significant departure for Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has long advocated the deepening of Russian-European relations.
As serious as that may be, it is likely to pale in comparison to the troubles brewing between the US and China.
Beijing, it appears, intends to counter possible American sanctions by ramping up its investments across sectors and facilities inside Iran. Tehran, in turn, has offered the People's Liberation Army Navy access to Iranian ports – potentially altering the geopolitical landscape.
US President Donald Trump has used the sanctions weapon rather effectively. AFP
Iran, meanwhile, looks set to conduct large-scale military drills with the purpose of intimidating its neighbours. Tehran will be emboldened by the prospect of current US sanctions being nullified by Chinese financial support. But these drills are dangerous, as they could lead to unexpected outcomes in the short term. In the long term, however, Washington will hope that sanctioning Chinese companies will turn the tables on the Chinese-Iranian project. Irrespective, this is probably going to be a fateful battle for the US – and not just the current administration.
As part of its strategy to curb Iran's influence in the region, Washington has issued a stern warning to Hezbollah, Tehran's proxy in Lebanon, and those who enable it. It has done so by imposing sanctions on former ministers Youssef Fenianos and Ali Hassan Khalil, with the latter seen to be close to Nabih Berri, Speaker of Parliament and leader of the influential Amal Movement.
Former Lebanese Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil and former Lebanese Public Works and Transportation Minister Youssef Fenianos were sanctioned by the US for providing material support to Hezbollah. EPA
Some within the ranks of the Free Patriotic Movement, to which President Michel Aoun and his son-in-law Gebran Bassil belong, mistakenly assume the US will not dare to impose sanctions on them. However, the message from the Trump administration is clear: the sanctions list will spare no one who has given cover to Hezbollah, or who has forgotten that partnering up with Hezbollah and Hamas, in Palestine, amounts to a red line. We will have to wait and see if other groups and individuals are also targeted, including former prime minister Saad Hariri and veteran parliamentarian Walid Jumblatt.
Whether or not Iran can overcome the challenges it faces from the West inside Lebanon, it is certain that the regime in Tehran will use the leverage it gets from its deal-making with China to try and dominate the region. What the specific consequences of this dangerous strategy are, only time will tell.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute
Tank warfare
Lt Gen Erik Petersen, deputy chief of programs, US Army, has argued it took a “three decade holiday” on modernising tanks.
“There clearly remains a significant armoured heavy ground manoeuvre threat in this world and maintaining a world class armoured force is absolutely vital,” the general said in London last week.
“We are developing next generation capabilities to compete with and deter adversaries to prevent opportunism or miscalculation, and, if necessary, defeat any foe decisively.”
What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
Grade 9 = above an A*
Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
Grade 7 = grade A
Grade 6 = just above a grade B
Grade 5 = between grades B and C
Grade 4 = grade C
Grade 3 = between grades D and E
Grade 2 = between grades E and F
Grade 1 = between grades F and G
Brave CF 27 fight card
Welterweight:
Abdoul Abdouraguimov (champion, FRA) v Jarrah Al Selawe (JOR)
Lightweight:
Anas Siraj Mounir (TUN) v Alex Martinez (CAN)
Welterweight:
Mzwandile Hlongwa (RSA) v Khamzat Chimaev (SWE)
Middleweight:
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Rustam Chsiev (RUS)
Mohammad Fakhreddine (LEB) v Christofer Silva (BRA)
Super lightweight:
Alex Nacfur (BRA) v Dwight Brooks (USA)
Bantamweight:
Jalal Al Daaja (JOR) v Tariq Ismail (CAN)
Chris Corton (PHI) v Zia Mashwani (PAK)
Featherweight:
Sulaiman (KUW) v Abdullatip (RUS)
Super lightweight:
Flavio Serafin (BRA) v Mohammad Al Katib (JOR)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
The biog
DOB: March 13, 1987 Place of birth: Jeddah, Saudi Arabia but lived in Virginia in the US and raised in Lebanon School: ACS in Lebanon University: BSA in Graphic Design at the American University of Beirut
MSA in Design Entrepreneurship at the School of Visual Arts in New York City Nationality: Lebanese Status: Single Favourite thing to do: I really enjoy cycling, I was a participant in Cycling for Gaza for the second time this year
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally • Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered • Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity • Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
Things Heard & Seen
Directed by: Shari Springer Berman, Robert Pulcini
Liverpool’s Uefa Champions League bid: “They’re great. With the attacking force they have, for me, they’re certainly one of the favourites. You look at the teams left in it - they’re capable of scoring against anybody at any given time. Defensively they’ve been good, so I don’t see any reason why they couldn’t go on and win it.”
Mohamed Salah’s debut campaign at Anfield: “Unbelievable. He’s been phenomenal. You can name the front three, but for him on a personal level, he’s been unreal. He’s been great to watch and hopefully he can continue now until the end of the season - which I’m sure he will, because he’s been in fine form. He’s been incredible this season.”
Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s instant impact at former club LA Galaxy: “Brilliant. It’s been a great start for him and for the club. They were crying out for another big name there. They were lacking that, for the prestige of LA Galaxy. And now they have one of the finest stars. I hope they can go win something this year.”
'Top Gun: Maverick'
Rating: 4/5
Directed by: Joseph Kosinski
Starring: Tom Cruise, Val Kilmer, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Miles Teller, Glen Powell, Ed Harris
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
