On Sunday, Lebanon will hold its first parliamentary elections since 2009. While the forthcoming elections are not expected to bring major changes, the political landscape has been transformed dramatically since the previous ones. Five things in particular will be worth looking out for.
The first is determining whether the current electoral law, based on proportional representation for the first time, will actually allow a significant number of new figures to enter parliament. Traditionally, the Lebanese political classes have adopted election laws that perpetuate their power. The current law is likely to reduce the blocs of most politicians or parties without, however, seriously undercutting their influence.
A factor that will play against lists of less-established candidates is that the cut-off percentage for elimination is regarded as relatively high, although the exact number depends on the number of voters in a district. This will reduce the latitude of such lists to enter parliament and will favour the major politicians and parties who have sizeable electorates in each district.
A second thing to look out for, which derives from the first, is how fragmented parliament is at the end of the elections and what this means for the balance of power in the country. Hezbollah was particularly happy with the proportional law because the party assumed this would do two things – reduce the large parliamentary blocs of its rivals and allow smaller, pro-Syrian parties or candidates to enter parliament as its allies.
This might well happen but more broadly, a fragmented parliament will also make consensus over future policy more difficult and contentious. At a time when the country is going through a major financial and economic crisis and there is a blueprint for economic and sectoral reform, a disjointed parliament might pose a major challenge down the road.
A narrower outcome to examine is how the alliance of Lebanese President Michel Aoun and his son-in-law Gebran Bassil with Prime Minister Saad Hariri will fare. Mr Aoun and Mr Hariri were rivals in the 2009 elections but that changed when Mr Hariri supported Mr Aoun's presidency in 2016. Today the two are allied in several districts and Lebanon's Shia parties, particularly Hezbollah, will be watching closely to see what happens.
The reason is that an alliance between Mr Aoun, a Maronite Christian, and Mr Hariri, a Sunni, could revive the communal partnership that dominated Lebanon for much of the post-independence period, when the Shia were marginalised. Hezbollah is keen to see if this might hinder its own agenda in Lebanon. The party wants to retain latitude to act on Iran’s behalf but if the state, embodied by the Aoun-Hariri alliance, works against this or simply does not support it, the party might be constrained.
For now, both Mr Aoun and Mr Hariri have pursued a conciliatory approach with Hezbollah. Mr Aoun has vowed to maintain his alliance with the party that was established in 2006. Mr Hariri knows that his return to office as prime minister depends on not alienating Hezbollah. However, in the event of a major war between Iran and Israel which encompasses Lebanon, Hezbollah has to be sure that it would not find itself isolated in the aftermath of such a conflict.
__________
More on the election from The National's foreign editor Arthur MacMillan in Beirut:
In Lebanon, women vote but few are chosen
Lebanon paves way to election as regional tension soars
__________
A fourth thing to watch for is which of the major Maronite Christian candidates emerge from elections in a position that would allow him to come across as a legitimate presidential candidate when Mr Aoun leaves office. Under Lebanon’s unwritten understanding, the president is always a Maronite Christian and is elected by parliament.
Mr Bassil is hoping to enter parliament for the first time and is a major presidential contender, as are Samir Geagea and Suleiman Franjieh. Neither of the latter two is a parliamentary candidate but both have a stake in ensuring their candidates do well, as leverage for a presidential bid. Mr Franjieh is an ally of Syria so his chances of becoming president are real while Mr Geagea, the head of the Lebanese Forces Party, sees the proportional law as boosting his party’s representation in parliament.
A final thing that will be interesting to determine is whether Hezbollah’s hold over the Shia community is as considerable as is generally assumed. In that regard, the election in the Baalbeck-Hermel district will be a useful barometer. Its large Shia electorate is mainly of tribal background and while it has supported Hezbollah, it has also often acted independently of the party, something much rarer among the Shia of the south.
While there is a Shia majority in the Baalbeck-Hermel district, there is also a significant Sunni and Christian minority. Opposition to Hezbollah will be led by Mr Hariri and Mr Geagea, in collaboration with a Shia notable from the region. While Hezbollah is likely to win most seats, Mr Hariri’s and Mr Geagea’s aim will be to defeat one candidate in particular, namely Jamil Al Sayyed, a bitter enemy of both men. He is backed by Syria and was reportedly placed on Hezbollah’s list at Syria’s request.
If Mr Al Sayyed fails to win, losing to a Shia on the Hariri and Geagea list, this would be humiliating to Hezbollah. It would mean the party failed to fulfil its commitment to Syria against a Shia challenge in an area the party considered a stronghold. It would not change much but it would show that Hezbollah cannot take its community for granted, at a time when its regional adventures are causing uneasiness at home.
Michael Young is editor of Diwan, the blog of the Carnegie Middle East programme, in Beirut
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
Scoreline:
Manchester City 1
Jesus 4'
Brighton 0
The%20specs
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
More on Quran memorisation:
The years Ramadan fell in May
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
Black Panther
Dir: Ryan Coogler
Starring: Chadwick Boseman, Michael B Jordan, Lupita Nyong'o
Five stars
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
The language of diplomacy in 1853
Treaty of Peace in Perpetuity Agreed Upon by the Chiefs of the Arabian Coast on Behalf of Themselves, Their Heirs and Successors Under the Mediation of the Resident of the Persian Gulf, 1853
(This treaty gave the region the name “Trucial States”.)
We, whose seals are hereunto affixed, Sheikh Sultan bin Suggar, Chief of Rassool-Kheimah, Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon, Chief of Aboo Dhebbee, Sheikh Saeed bin Buyte, Chief of Debay, Sheikh Hamid bin Rashed, Chief of Ejman, Sheikh Abdoola bin Rashed, Chief of Umm-ool-Keiweyn, having experienced for a series of years the benefits and advantages resulting from a maritime truce contracted amongst ourselves under the mediation of the Resident in the Persian Gulf and renewed from time to time up to the present period, and being fully impressed, therefore, with a sense of evil consequence formerly arising, from the prosecution of our feuds at sea, whereby our subjects and dependants were prevented from carrying on the pearl fishery in security, and were exposed to interruption and molestation when passing on their lawful occasions, accordingly, we, as aforesaid have determined, for ourselves, our heirs and successors, to conclude together a lasting and inviolable peace from this time forth in perpetuity.
Taken from Britain and Saudi Arabia, 1925-1939: the Imperial Oasis, by Clive Leatherdale
CONFIRMED%20LINE-UP
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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More on animal trafficking
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FIXTURES
All kick-off times 10.45pm UAE ( 4 GMT) unless stated
Tuesday
Sevilla v Maribor
Spartak Moscow v Liverpool
Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk
Napoli v Feyenoord
Besiktas v RB Leipzig
Monaco v Porto
Apoel Nicosia v Tottenham Hotspur
Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
Wednesday
Basel v Benfica
CSKA Moscow Manchester United
Paris Saint-Germain v Bayern Munich
Anderlecht v Celtic
Qarabag v Roma (8pm)
Atletico Madrid v Chelsea
Juventus v Olympiakos
Sporting Lisbon v Barcelona
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
Read more about the coronavirus
UAE v Zimbabwe A
Results
Match 1 – UAE won by 4 wickets
Match 2 – UAE won by 5 wickets
Match 3 – UAE won by 25 runs
Match 4 – UAE won by 77 runs
Fixture
Match 5, Saturday, 9.30am start, ICC Academy, Dubai
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The bio
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite travel destination: Maldives and south of France
Favourite pastime: Family and friends, meditation, discovering new cuisines
Favourite Movie: Joker (2019). I didn’t like it while I was watching it but then afterwards I loved it. I loved the psychology behind it.
Favourite Author: My father for sure
Favourite Artist: Damien Hurst
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Quick%20facts
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The%20specs
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%E2%80%98White%20Elephant%E2%80%99
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Essentials
The flights: You can fly from the UAE to Iceland with one stop in Europe with a variety of airlines. Return flights with Emirates from Dubai to Stockholm, then Icelandair to Reykjavik, cost from Dh4,153 return. The whole trip takes 11 hours. British Airways flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Reykjavik, via London, with return flights taking 12 hours and costing from Dh2,490 return, including taxes.
The activities: A half-day Silfra snorkelling trip costs 14,990 Icelandic kronur (Dh544) with Dive.is. Inside the Volcano also takes half a day and costs 42,000 kronur (Dh1,524). The Jokulsarlon small-boat cruise lasts about an hour and costs 9,800 kronur (Dh356). Into the Glacier costs 19,500 kronur (Dh708). It lasts three to four hours.
The tours: It’s often better to book a tailor-made trip through a specialist operator. UK-based Discover the World offers seven nights, self-driving, across the island from £892 (Dh4,505) per person. This includes three nights’ accommodation at Hotel Husafell near Into the Glacier, two nights at Hotel Ranga and two nights at the Icelandair Hotel Klaustur. It includes car rental, plus an iPad with itinerary and tourist information pre-loaded onto it, while activities can be booked as optional extras. More information inspiredbyiceland.com
Fifa%20World%20Cup%20Qatar%202022%20
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Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
RESULT
Kolkata Knight Riders 169-7 (20 ovs)
Rajasthan Royals 144-4 (20 ovs)
Kolkata win by 25 runs
Next match
Sunrisers Hyderabad v Kolkata Knight Riders, Friday, 5.30pm
