President Xi Jinping’s signature Belt and Road Initiative has often - and wrongly - been painted as an insidious instrument of Chinese expansionism. AP Photo
President Xi Jinping’s signature Belt and Road Initiative has often - and wrongly - been painted as an insidious instrument of Chinese expansionism. AP Photo
President Xi Jinping’s signature Belt and Road Initiative has often - and wrongly - been painted as an insidious instrument of Chinese expansionism. AP Photo
Bashing China has become part of what currently passes for political debate in the US, with President Donald Trump regularly accusing Joe Biden either of letting China "eat his lunch" or of surrendering American jobs to Beijing. At the same time, this is not disconnected from popular feeling: a Pew survey published a few days ago indicated that public views of China in many countries, including the US, UK, Germany, South Korea and Australia, had reached record levels of unfavourability. So it is more important than ever to see and think clearly about when and if criticism of China is backed by the facts or not.
This is why a report recently issued by the UK's leading international affairs think tank Chatham House, titled Debunking the Myth of 'Debt-trap Diplomacy', deserves to be widely read. As the authors – Lee Jones of Queen Mary University of London, and Shahar Hameiri of the University of Queensland – point out, President Xi Jinping's signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has often been painted as an insidious instrument of Chinese expansionism. Rather than being a benevolent programme to increase global connectivity and to support developing countries build much-needed infrastructure, critics claim Beijing lures poorer nations into taking loans they can't possibly afford and then tries to make them client states when they can't pay up and have to beg for terms.
Trump administration officials such as former national security adviser John Bolton have said the BRI was all about “advancing Chinese global dominance”. Vice President Mike Pence alleged – falsely, as it has since proved – that China’s involvement in financing the debt-laden and unprofitable Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka was in order to establish a forward base for its navy. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said that countries “which have signed on to the Belt and Road projects have found Beijing's deals come not with strings attached, but with shackles".
A farmer harvests grass seeds in a field in this aerial photograph taken over a farm near Gunnedah, New South Wales, Australia, on last month. Australia’s call for a probe into the origins of the virus have further strained ties. Beijing has labeled calls for the investigation "politically motivated," warning of a potential consumer boycott of Australian products. Bloomberg
Cows walk through a field during a cattle drive at a farm in Gunnedah, New South Wales, last month. A growing number of Australia's primary producers are mulling the potential for a further tightening of restrictions on Australia's agricultural exports by China. Bloomberg
A farmer herds Black Angus cows during a cattle drive in this aerial photograph taken over a farm in Gunnedah. A growing number of Australia's primary producers are mulling the potential for a further tightening of restrictions on Australia's agricultural exports by China. Bloomberg
A student reads while sitting on a ledge at the Quadrangle of the University of Sydney, Australia May 2, 2017. International students are expected to begin returning to Australia next month despite Chinese warnings of pandemic-related racism, the Australian prime minister said on Friday, June 12, 2020. (Paul Miller/AAP Image via AP)
Office buildings and the Bank of China logo are seen amidst the easing of the coronavirus disease restrictions in the Central Business District of Sydney, Australia. Reuters
People wearing face masks to protect against the new coronavirus ride past the Australian Embassy in Beijing last week. China is advising its citizens not to visit Australia, citing racial discrimination and violence against Asians, in what appears to be Beijing's latest attempt to punish the country for advocating an investigation into the coronavirus pandemic. AP Photo
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, second left, alongside American and Australian officials during a news conference in Sydney. The two countries agreed to seek a probe into the outbeak of Covid-19. Bloomberg
University of Queensland student and activist Drew Pavlou, centre, takes part in a protest in support of Hong Kong, outside the Chinese consulate in Brisbane, Australia, last month. EPA
Pro democracy Hong Kong protesters gather outside the electorate office of Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews in Melbourne, Australia, last month. EPA
The Commanding Officer of HMAS Parramatta, Commander Anita Nemarich, waves at USS America in the South China Sea last month. Australia is a member of the so-called Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Reuters
I have frequently written that these are absurd, malign and unfair mischaracterisations of the BRI. Nations are not shorn of their agency; they can choose to participate in projects or not. New roads, railways, ports and buildings are desperately needed in much of Asia and Africa; pretty much no one else is willing to come up with the cash. And as anyone who has looked at the history of the BRI will know, it is such a vague and potentially all-encompassing initiative that it could not possibly be called a masterplan of any kind.
The Chatham House report backs this view up by arguing convincingly that it is actually recipient countries that do much of the asking for support in the first place; that the BRI is primarily an economic, not a geopolitical, project; and that it is “too fragmented and poorly co-ordinated to pursue detailed strategic objectives”.
"Developing country governments are not hapless victims of a predatory Beijing," the authors write. "They – and their associated political and economic interests – determine the nature of BRI projects on their territory." This last point cannot be made often enough. The report does good work in thoroughly debunking the foundational debt-trap myth of Hambantota Port. The costly white elephant may have ended up being leased to a Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE) for 99 years, but, as they point out, the whole sorry project was not even proposed by China, but "was overwhelmingly driven by Sri Lankan actors for their own domestic purposes". Moreover, they argue that Sri Lanka's debt trap "was facilitated by western lending and monetary policy, and not by the policies of the Chinese government".
It is on the subject of whether the BRI is a scheme to achieve global dominance that the report truly skewers the critics. For there is not just no BRI blueprint. There is no official map of BRI projects – and even unofficial ones have been banned since 2017. It is at times so hazy that when the Malaysian government reportedly asked the Chinese authorities to define which projects it considered to be under the BRI and which not in 2018, they were apparently unable to say.
I have always thought that the BRI’s elasticity and capaciousness were advantages. Why be bound by onerous definitions? But as the authors write: “If ‘strategy’ is understood to mean a specification of the goals to be achieved, combined with a set of tactics describing how to reach those goals, clear directions for specific actors, and appropriate resource commitments, then China’s BRI does not qualify.” That is a polite way of saying that there are so many actors, and so many differing projects started for very different reasons, that to think of the BRI as anything as coherent as a plan, let alone an evil one, is to misunderstand it completely.
It is better thought of as a broad umbrella under which an array of bilateral agreements, variously motivated state agency, commercial and government decisions, and current incarnations of old ideas such as China’s “Go Out” policy which encouraged SOEs to seek business abroad, all shelter. As the report notes, the BRI repackages and rebrands many existing projects and supports new ones; and a large part of its aim is to ensure that excess capacity at home finds markets outside China.
US Vice President Mike Pence has falsely alleged that China’s involvement in financing Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka was to establish a forward base for its navy. AFP
There is nothing wrong with that, and there are also real benefits to BRI-participant countries, as I've written about in these pages in the past. It's not a charity, of course, and it would be perverse for China not to expect gains from it. But casting the initiative as anything that needs to be countered – say by America's "free and open Indo-Pacific" strategy – is "seeking to curb a Chinese 'offensive' that the BRI does not really constitute", as the Chatham House report concludes.
Only a few years ago many countries around the world, including numerous US allies, were happy to work with China to form the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. In a time of dangerous escalation, western countries would do well to find common cause again. The BRI is just such an opportunity. For while there may be valid reasons to criticise Beijing, this initiative is not one of them. It could in fact just be a way to step back from a brink it would serve no one's interests to cross.
Sholto Byrnes is an East Asian affairs columnist for The National
The language of diplomacy in 1853
Treaty of Peace in Perpetuity Agreed Upon by the Chiefs of the Arabian Coast on Behalf of Themselves, Their Heirs and Successors Under the Mediation of the Resident of the Persian Gulf, 1853
(This treaty gave the region the name “Trucial States”.)
We, whose seals are hereunto affixed, Sheikh Sultan bin Suggar, Chief of Rassool-Kheimah, Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon, Chief of Aboo Dhebbee, Sheikh Saeed bin Buyte, Chief of Debay, Sheikh Hamid bin Rashed, Chief of Ejman, Sheikh Abdoola bin Rashed, Chief of Umm-ool-Keiweyn, having experienced for a series of years the benefits and advantages resulting from a maritime truce contracted amongst ourselves under the mediation of the Resident in the Persian Gulf and renewed from time to time up to the present period, and being fully impressed, therefore, with a sense of evil consequence formerly arising, from the prosecution of our feuds at sea, whereby our subjects and dependants were prevented from carrying on the pearl fishery in security, and were exposed to interruption and molestation when passing on their lawful occasions, accordingly, we, as aforesaid have determined, for ourselves, our heirs and successors, to conclude together a lasting and inviolable peace from this time forth in perpetuity.
Taken from Britain and Saudi Arabia, 1925-1939: the Imperial Oasis, by Clive Leatherdale
Schedule:
All matches at the Harare Sports Club
1st ODI, Wed Apr 10
2nd ODI, Fri Apr 12
3rd ODI, Sun Apr 14
4th ODI, Sun Apr 16
UAE squad
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
Zimbabwe squad
Peter Moor (captain), Solomon Mire, Brian Chari, Regis Chakabva, Sean Williams, Timycen Maruma, Sikandar Raza, Donald Tiripano, Kyle Jarvis, Tendai Chatara, Chris Mpofu, Craig Ervine, Brandon Mavuta, Ainsley Ndlovu, Tony Munyonga, Elton Chigumbura
Results:
2.15pm: Handicap (PA) Dh60,000 1,200m.
Winner: AZ Dhabyan, Adam McLean (jockey), Saleha Al Ghurair (trainer).
2.45pm: Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 1,200m.
Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Sam Hitchcott, Ibrahim Aseel.
3.15pm: Conditions (PA) Dh60,000 2,000m.
Winner: Hareer Al Reef, Gerald Avranche, Abdallah Al Hammadi.
3.45pm: Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 1,700m.
Winner: Kenz Al Reef, Gerald Avranche, Abdallah Al Hammadi.
4.15pm: Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Cup (TB) Dh 200,000 1,700m.
Winner: Mystique Moon, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson.
4.45pm: The Crown Prince Of Sharjah Cup Prestige (PA) Dh200,000 1,200m.
Winner: ES Ajeeb, Sam Hitchcott, Ibrahim Aseel.
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
ALL THE RESULTS
Bantamweight
Siyovush Gulmomdov (TJK) bt Rey Nacionales (PHI) by decision.
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROU) bt Hussein Fakhir Abed (SYR) by submission.
Catch 74kg
Omar Hussein (JOR) bt Tohir Zhuraev (TJK) by decision.
Strawweight (Female)
Seo Ye-dam (KOR) bt Weronika Zygmunt (POL) by decision.
Featherweight
Kaan Ofli (TUR) bt Walid Laidi (ALG) by TKO.
Lightweight
Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW) bt Leandro Martins (BRA) by TKO.
Welterweight
Ahmad Labban (LEB) bt Sofiane Benchohra (ALG) by TKO.
Bantamweight
Jaures Dea (CAM) v Nawras Abzakh (JOR) no contest.
Lightweight
Mohammed Yahya (UAE) bt Glen Ranillo (PHI) by TKO round 1.
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) bt Aidan Aguilera (AUS) by TKO round 1.
Welterweight
Mounir Lazzez (TUN) bt Sasha Palatkinov (HKG) by TKO round 1.
Featherweight title bout
Romando Dy (PHI) v Lee Do-gyeom (KOR) by KO round 1.
How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers
Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.
It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.
The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.
Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.
Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.
He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.
AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”
A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.
Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.
Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.
Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.
By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.
Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.
In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”
Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.
She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.
Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.
ENGLAND SQUAD
Eoin Morgan (captain), Moeen Ali, Jonny Bairstow, Sam Billings, Jos Buttler, Tom Curran, Alex Hales, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, David Willey, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
Faisal Al Ketbi, Ibrahim Al Hosani, Khalfan Humaid Balhol, Khalifa Saeed Al Suwaidi, Mubarak Basharhil, Obaid Salem Al Nuaimi, Saeed Juma Al Mazrouei, Saoud Abdulla Al Hammadi, Taleb Al Kirbi, Yahia Mansour Al Hammadi, Zayed Al Kaabi, Zayed Saif Al Mansoori, Saaid Haj Hamdou, Hamad Saeed Al Nuaimi. Coaches Roberto Lima and Alex Paz.
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Seemar’s top six for the Dubai World Cup Carnival:
1. Reynaldothewizard
2. North America
3. Raven’s Corner
4. Hawkesbury
5. New Maharajah
6. Secret Ambition
