Suddenly the space for action for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has shrunk dramatically.
Just a month ago the leading think tank, European Council on Foreign Relations, was bemoaning the lack of cards in the bloc's hand to play against the Turkish leader. The Europeans stand frustrated and apparently impotent in front of his expansionist power projects both at sea in the Mediterranean and conflict zones from Libya to Nagorno-Karabakh.
Why then is Mr Erdogan appearing to give ground?
His shake-up of his economic team this week was an uncharacteristic concession. Mr Erdogan engineered the exit of his son-in-law Berat Albayrak as finance and treasury minister. The Turkish President has also promised to shake up his country's institutions and enact judicial reforms.
It all suggests a reopening after a grim tailspin went into overdrive following the failed coup attempt in 2016.
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There have been signs of a welcome for his moves. The lira has rallied on the removal of an economy tsar who dogmatically insisted that reduced interest rates were the path to low inflation. Tongues are wagging in Ankara and Istanbul that Mr Erdogan is shifting to accommodate the new pressures that the incoming US administration of Joe Biden will bring. The fragility of the economy robs Mr Erdogan of a narrative to present to a Democratic administration at a time when internal record of his leadership will be far more closely scrutinised.
It would be folly for Mr Biden’s team to fall for this window-dressing as a real platform for partnership. The Erdogan that Mr Biden is now dealing with has shed much of his political skin since the Democrats were last in power almost four years ago.
The assumption that the new administration can go back to the relationship – and the actors it worked with – before is not really on the cards. The Erdogan agenda is here to stay, makeover or not.
Even this week Mr Erdogan was pursuing his efforts to weaken the Europeans. This is a key policy that grants him the scope to meddle beyond Turkish borders in traditional stomping grounds of the Middle East, North Africa and the Caucuses.
He visited Northern Cyprus to push his "two-state, one-island" plan for the island. This is a direct confrontation with European interests and has firmed up the continent's pressure to promulgate sanctions on Ankara.
The Turkish exploration activity around Cyprus and in Greek waters is steadily weakening Nato. A clash earlier this year between a Turkish vessel and a French Corvette led to a complaint to the alliance. But the inquiry was never satisfactorily resolved.
In a note last week the Washington think tank, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, identified the Eastern Mediterranean as potential flash point for the Biden administration. To maintain Nato’s effectiveness and readiness in its “southern flank” will be a top priority for Washington as it seeks to shore up US global leadership.
Mr Erdogan's positioning is therefore a complicating factor for the US. Turkey has an opportunistic and symbiotic relationship with Russia that CSIS points out undermines policies based on reducing or eliminating threats in the Nato allies' sphere of influence.
The Turkish leader not so long ago declared that French President Emmanuel Macron "needed mental treatment". As European countries including France increasingly appreciate the threat to their social and political systems posed by Islamist extremism, Mr Erdogan has found himself on the wrong side of the dividing line.
In Germany, the Netherlands and Austria, the Diyanet – Turkey's directorate of religious affairs, which is directly controlled by the presidency – is increasingly seen as a hostile presence among the local community. Its role in controlling religious institutions is the primary reason that there are proposals for training or licensing imams across Europe to ensure a common standard and as a bulwark against extremism.
From a European vantage point, it remains essential to get Turkish relations right. The great wave of migration westwards in 2015 was a demonstration of how bad things can get when that relationship is overwhelmed.
The Europeans are also keen to find a role in the power balance that plays out between the US and China – and the White House and the Kremlin for that matter – once President-elect Biden formally assumes office.
With his instinct of these equations honed over 18 years at the helm of the Turkish state, Mr Erdogan no doubt wants to establish a first mover advantage.
The Obama administration, in which Mr Biden was vice president, was favourable to him in many ways. It reduced sanctions on Iran that allowed Ankara to enjoy a lucrative trading and financial relationship with Tehran. Officials had a benign attitude to the Muslim Brotherhood as Mr Erdogan came to the fore under that umbrella.
The troubles that follow from Mr Erdogan’s policies, as these play out in the Middle East and Europe, cannot be as easily ignored this time round. Not only will the administration acknowledge the Abrahamic Accords but it will seek stability and rebuilding in Libya, and perhaps even Syria, in a way that will not be compatible with Turkish interests.
As Mr Biden rebuilds America's relations with Europe and necessarily shores up Nato’s southern flank, he will find Turkey's place in that alliance an increasingly uncomfortable problem.
Damien McElroy is the London bureau chief of The National
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Stormy seas
Weather warnings show that Storm Eunice is soon to make landfall. The videographer and I are scrambling to return to the other side of the Channel before it does. As we race to the port of Calais, I see miles of wire fencing topped with barbed wire all around it, a silent ‘Keep Out’ sign for those who, unlike us, aren’t lucky enough to have the right to move freely and safely across borders.
We set sail on a giant ferry whose length dwarfs the dinghies migrants use by nearly a 100 times. Despite the windy rain lashing at the portholes, we arrive safely in Dover; grateful but acutely aware of the miserable conditions the people we’ve left behind are in and of the privilege of choice.
The Beach Bum
Director: Harmony Korine
Stars: Matthew McConaughey, Isla Fisher, Snoop Dogg
Two stars
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
WandaVision
Starring: Elizabeth Olsen, Paul Bettany
Directed by: Matt Shakman
Rating: Four stars
SPECS%3A%20Polestar%203
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELong-range%20dual%20motor%20with%20400V%20battery%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E360kW%20%2F%20483bhp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E840Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20touring%20range%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20628km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.7sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20210kph%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh360%2C000%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeptember%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh289,000
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Ultra processed foods
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
UJDA CHAMAN
Produced: Panorama Studios International
Directed: Abhishek Pathak
Cast: Sunny Singh, Maanvi Gagroo, Grusha Kapoor, Saurabh Shukla
Rating: 3.5 /5 stars
Dubai World Cup prize money
Group 1 (Purebred Arabian) 2000m Dubai Kahayla Classic - $750,000
Group 2 1,600m(Dirt) Godolphin Mile - $750,000
Group 2 3,200m (Turf) Dubai Gold Cup – $750,000
Group 1 1,200m (Turf) Al Quoz Sprint – $1,000,000
Group 2 1,900m(Dirt) UAE Derby – $750,000
Group 1 1,200m (Dirt) Dubai Golden Shaheen – $1,500,000
Group 1 1,800m (Turf) Dubai Turf – $4,000,000
Group 1 2,410m (Turf) Dubai Sheema Classic – $5,000,000
Group 1 2,000m (Dirt) Dubai World Cup– $12,000,000
FA%20Cup%20semi-final%20draw
%3Cp%3ECoventry%20City%20v%20Manchester%20United%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EManchester%20City%20v%20Chelsea%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20Games%20to%20be%20played%20at%20Wembley%20Stadium%20on%20weekend%20of%20April%2020%2F21.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE v IRELAND
All matches start at 10am, and will be played in Abu Dhabi
1st ODI, Friday, January 8
2nd ODI, Sunday, January 10
3rd ODI, Tuesday, January 12
4th ODI, Thursday, January 14
Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi
From: Dara
To: Team@
Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT
Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East
Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.
Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.
I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.
This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.
It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.
Uber on,
Dara
