Now that the president of the United States has named John Bolton as his new national security advisor and nominated Mike Pompeo to be the next Secretary of State, we enter the "be careful what you wish for" stage of US-Middle East politics.
These appointments mean that it is virtually certain that sometime in the middle of May, the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. The president has said he was inclined to do this to many including recent visitors from the region. Washington observers like Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair Bob Corker have predicted it. Mr Bolton has frequently called for it.
Expect it to happen. The big question becomes: then what?
Three types of fall-out from this action are likely. At least two of them and possibly all three will be seen by those who have advocated for this action from the US as unhappy outcomes.
First, rather than isolating Iran and putting pressure on that country’s leaders, unilateral US withdrawal will isolate America. None of the other signatories of the JCPOA (the acronym for the nuclear deal) will go along with the US. All will continue to honour the deal. Most will assist Iran to make up for the pressure imposed by the US.
The US will be seen as a rogue state among the leaders of the international community. Its standing will falter. It will be seen as less reliable as a negotiating partner. (A nuclear deal with North Korea, always a long shot, will be torpedoed by this action as the North Koreans will have zero reason to believe any commitments made by US negotiators.) But most importantly from the point of view of those who support such a pull-out, it won't increase pressure on Iran in any meaningful way and it will weaken the US as a diplomatic or political force on many levels.
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Second, and this falls more directly into the category of unintended consequences, as the legal pressure on the president of the United States grows due to the investigation of the special counsel and potential investigations from both the press and, after the November elections, from a Democratic House of Representatives, new questions will arise about the influence of Middle Eastern leaders and donors on the decisions of the US.
In other words, the decision to unilaterally pull out of the Iran deal will not simply be seen as a bad idea from a president with little grasp of its consequences, it will be examined as evidence of heightened influence from abroad. This will, in turn, deepen investigations in this area, which are likely to persist and grow more intense as this year progresses. The result may be, therefore, that rather than strengthening US allies in the region, the relationships are inadvertently compromised.
Finally, this will leave only one avenue for the US president and his allies who have supported the pull-out from the Iran deal to prove that the pull-out was necessary. That is, of course, to raise tensions with Iran to the point that the country is seen as a greater threat and, perhaps, to the point that armed conflict is the result.
One question at this time will be whether this conflict involves the military forces of the US or proxy actors who have American support. The latter seems slightly more likely given US politics and the lack of appetite for more deep military engagement in the region. But whether the US military is directly involved or the confrontation involves Arab powers, the likelihood of conflict between the US and/or its allies with Iran is higher now than it has been at any time in modern memory.
The US is led by a wounded president surrounded by hawkish advisers who have identified and prioritised two potential international scapegoats who they have long believed should be the targets of pre-emptive strikes. One is North Korea. but because it has a developed nuclear arsenal and the ability to inflict massive conventional damage on South Korea, the costs of an attack on them are so high that it makes it the less likely victim of a first attack from this new US team.
So that leaves Iran. While a war with Iran or direct strikes against Tehran would be costly, they can’t be ruled out. And in any event, the heightened tensions that seem certain to come may well have consequences for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the perception of political risk associated with the region. Is this likely to constrain Iran’s behaviour?Achieve the goal of reducing long-term risks better than the JCPOA?
To both questions, the answer is probably not. But we have entered a period in which reason and rationality may not guide outcomes as they have in the past and impulsiveness and external, unrelated pressures may force action where it should not come. And for that reason, the arrival of the new US national security team should be seen as a source of apprehension by all those with interests in the peaceful future of the Middle East.
8 traditional Jamaican dishes to try at Kingston 21
- Trench Town Rock: Jamaican-style curry goat served in a pastry basket with a carrot and potato garnish
- Rock Steady Jerk Chicken: chicken marinated for 24 hours and slow-cooked on the grill
- Mento Oxtail: flavoured oxtail stewed for five hours with herbs
- Ackee and salt fish: the national dish of Jamaica makes for a hearty breakfast
- Jamaican porridge: another breakfast favourite, can be made with peanut, cornmeal, banana and plantain
- Jamaican beef patty: a pastry with ground beef filling
- Hellshire Pon di Beach: Fresh fish with pickles
- Out of Many: traditional sweet potato pudding
Non-oil%20trade
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Types of fraud
Phishing: Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
Smishing: The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
Vishing: The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
SIM swap: Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
Identity theft: Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
Prize scams: Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
* Nada El Sawy
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Brolliology: A History of the Umbrella in Life and Literature
By Marion Rankine
Melville House
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
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Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Company%20Profile
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Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
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