A trend is often out within a season, and as fleeting as a TikTok video. Yet trends are great: they indicate direction of change. For example, you mark your children’s height on a wall with a Sharpie every year they grow. Or, the more you run, the faster you get (hopefully).
In its simplest form, a trend shows a progressive relationship between two variables. And so, on the back of historical information, we expect future observations to continue along that pattern.
We see the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, the creation of artificial intelligence-lawyers as well as a growing prevalence of working from home, a rising shift toward online learning and shopping. It is then compelling to extend the trend line and make predictions about even greater numbers of electric vehicles or the rising use cases of AI; about remote working becoming more common and online learning and the way we shop online to be here to stay.
But here is the thing: while we make sense of two variables to describe a trend, many more forces are at work. We so often forget about how the past continues to influence a trend. And, over time, a trend is no more.
In the early days of Covid-induced lockdown last year, the Dubai Future Foundation started publishing an extensive series of reports on the impact of the pandemic and what the future might have held.
Working and learning from home was imposed on all; the physical office space was to be a thing of the past and we would work happily ever after on Zoom. But then new trends set in: Zoom fatigue, cabin fever and back-to-back-calls-without-stopping-for-a-biobreak or proper posture, and, darn, were we all looking forward to going back to the office.
Our routines had to adapt to the new, deeper trends, to the new structural forces that were shaping our well-being and survival.
So, what about the other trends that we, and others, anticipated during those early Covid days? Schooling and education is an interesting one: as learning shifted online or stopped altogether, there was a sense of a future ripe with distance learning becoming more widespread, even after the pandemic. As anticipated, much was invested into education technologies and some regulatory changes were made to legalise and formalise off-site learning.
What’s interesting is the trend that emerges from the combination of home-schooling and working from home: flexibility is becoming a necessity and so schools that provide blended – online and offline – learning at variable times of the days to suit students and carers. Plus, there is now a strong push towards reimagining education models to focus more on future-readiness, inquiry and humanity.
Another of our reports assessed the outlook on retail. Perhaps this was one of the more obvious trends to anticipate as the world is coming out of lockdowns in waves. At first necessity, then convenience, have led customers to take on and ultimately continue to use e-commerce solutions. This is true around the globe as the pandemic has accelerated the growth of existing e-businesses and forced all others to ramp up their online offering.
A completed electric motorcycle is ridden from the assembly line area at the Silence Urban Ecomobility plant in Barcelona. Bloomberg
Trend-spotting is challenging because it is so compelling to extrapolate a trend from very few observations
Now the battle for customers is fought on delivery times: dark stores – warehouses stocked with popular items – are the new trends that enable delivery companies to send shopping to your doorstep within 10 minutes. Such dark stores are an incarnation, though smaller, of another trend we had written about within the global logistics story: the need for regional manufacturing and distribution centres.
Supply chains collapsed during the first lockdowns, prompting speculation that stocking locally will be important to prevent future supply shocks. Dark stores are mini-versions of some major ports providing huge storage facilities. But demand and supply picked up again at an uneven rate as China has surged ahead on pandemic recovery. This dynamic caused cargo container shortages for goods coming from China – not from local manufacturing facilities. We did not anticipate that. And, importantly, malls have been getting a significant increase in footfall, a rebound we anticipated would take longer.
The future of cities is another important area to watch. Covid-19 or other transmissible diseases may shape city planning more than previously. Density, mobility and connectivity have always influenced cities and we have tasted periods of fewer crowds, less traffic and improved air quality. As such, our cities report made no predictions but aimed at taking the learnings from the pandemic to shape a better future for city dwellers.
Trend-spotting is challenging because it is so compelling to extrapolate a trend from very few observations. The pandemic seemed at the time to catalyse entirely new directions for good.
Instead, in some cases it was already proven to be more like a pendulum, swinging in one direction, then back. The task before us – as it always is – is to try to understand when something is a fad, a trend or a deeper change to life as we know it.
Dr Patrick Noack is the executive director of future, foresight and imagination at the Dubai Future Foundation
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany - At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people - Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed - Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest - He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
New UK refugee system
A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
All kick-off times 10.45pm UAE ( 4 GMT) unless stated
Tuesday
Sevilla v Maribor
Spartak Moscow v Liverpool
Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk
Napoli v Feyenoord
Besiktas v RB Leipzig
Monaco v Porto
Apoel Nicosia v Tottenham Hotspur
Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
Wednesday
Basel v Benfica
CSKA Moscow Manchester United
Paris Saint-Germain v Bayern Munich
Anderlecht v Celtic
Qarabag v Roma (8pm)
Atletico Madrid v Chelsea
Juventus v Olympiakos
Sporting Lisbon v Barcelona
If you go
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.
The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister. "We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know. “All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.” It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins. Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement. The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
Despite the extreme distance, flying to Fairbanks is relatively simple, requiring just one transfer in Seattle, which can be reached directly from Dubai with Emirates for Dh6,800 return.
Touring
Gondwana Ecotours’ seven-day Polar Bear Adventure starts in Fairbanks in central Alaska before visiting Kaktovik and Utqiarvik on the North Slope. Polar bear viewing is highly likely in Kaktovik, with up to five two-hour boat tours included. Prices start from Dh11,500 per person, with all local flights, meals and accommodation included; gondwanaecotours.com
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
Our House, Louise Candlish,
Simon & Schuster
Our Time Has Come
Alyssa Ayres, Oxford University Press
