With olive branches extended by Barack Obama and the Castro era drawing to an end, better times seemed around the corner for the beleaguered Caribbean island of Cuba.
After decades of Cold War tension with a mischief-making superpower, set against its defiant, anti-western neighbour, warmer US-Cuban relations promised benefits for the troubled Cuban economy, freer movement and a new age of mutual respect.
How distant that all now seems. For Mr Obama's successor as US president, Donald Trump, Cuba was a rogue country to pick a fight with and he soon he began to reverse the policy of rapprochement.
And while the late Fidel Castro's brother Raul is stepping down as president in April, the first vice president tipped to take over has his own air of belligerence. Previously seen by some as a moderate, Miguel Diaz-Canel was caught on video lambasting Cubans for copying Americans in celebrating Halloween, threatening to ban an independent magazine and sounding very Castro-like in his outlook. "It was the US that invaded Cuba, [that mounted] the blockade," he said. "They have to resolve these things to have normalised relations. We don't have to give anything in exchange."
None of that was in Mr Obama’s script. He might also be dismayed to hear that as far away as the UK, some money-changers refuse to sell US dollars to customers unwise enough to disclose where they are travelling.
Before a recent visit, I was told at a London branch of the retailer Marks and Spencer I would be denied currency in line with “US policy”. A protest on social media brought a fatuous response: “Fabulous you're off to Cuba for a holiday. We're bound by M&S Bank procedures and have been informed we're unable to sell US dollars to anyone visiting or living in Cuba due to sanctions.”
Yet Britain imposes no sanctions on Cuba. Marks and Spencer is a British company. The would-be buyer was British. Good, bad or indifferent, Cuba is a sovereign state. At least there was a positive sequel; I learnt that local surcharges on conversion made US dollars much less sensible a choice than euros, sterling or Canadian dollars in any case. M&S Bank made much of this in a follow-up statement to The National, though a desire to help the consumer had not been mentioned either at the store or in the Twitter exchange.
The Trump restrictions aim to make it more difficult for US companies and citizens to deal with Cuba. Theoretically, this targets military or intelligence-run businesses but the ban is wide-reaching, affecting even the hotel I stayed in, downtown Havana’s Ambos Mundo, once favoured by the US author Ernest Hemingway.
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Read more:
US expels Cuban diplomats following sonic attacks
Tillerson says official Cuban travel is still risky
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So far, the impact seems slight. Americans, once again limited to organised group travel for cultural or family purposes and under tighter conditions, can nevertheless plan visits, cheekily helped by advice from US websites.
Cubans appear happier than when I first started visiting 20 years ago. They are proud of their island’s resistance while seeing the obvious failings of rigid adoption of Soviet ways; butter was among commodities in short supply in Havana this month. But while tourism is strong, there is little sign yet of economic improvements reaching ordinary households. Westerners can still spend as much on dinner for two as a professional couple earn in a month.
If Mr Trump’s will prevails and a hardliner takes over from Raul Castro (who may well retain some influence), the immediate prospects are unpromising.
Many feared Cuba would lose much of its charm as more Americans and US companies arrived. “They’ll buy up all our vintage cars and leave behind Starbucks and McDonald’s,” ran a common lament.
Cubans are entitled to prefer a better living standard as opposed to “staying quaint”. But it probably takes both sides to see sense and there may be a long wait.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Sunday's games
All times UAE:
Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace, 4pm
Manchester City v Arsenal, 6.15pm
Everton v Watford, 8.30pm
Chelsea v Manchester United, 8.30pm
The five pillars of Islam
If you go...
Etihad Airways flies from Abu Dhabi to Kuala Lumpur, from about Dh3,600. Air Asia currently flies from Kuala Lumpur to Terengganu, with Berjaya Hotels & Resorts planning to launch direct chartered flights to Redang Island in the near future. Rooms at The Taaras Beach and Spa Resort start from 680RM (Dh597).
The%20specs
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
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The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Brief scores:
Manchester City 3
Bernardo Silva 16', Sterling 57', Gundogan 79'
Bournemouth 1
Wilson 44'
Man of the match: Leroy Sane (Manchester City)
