The announcement that the US aims to pull thousands of troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan by November has more to do with President Donald Trump’s desire to win re-election than it does with any tangible improvement in the overall security situation.
Mr Trump has made no secret throughout the course of his presidency of his desire to tackle America’s involvement in “endless wars” that have cost the American taxpayer, according to the President’s estimate, around $7 trillion – money that he believes could be better spent on improving the lives of ordinary Americans.
Indeed, Mr Trump’s “America First” policy has already seen Washington announce a number of premature troops withdrawals, such as the decision to abandon the Kurds in northern Syria and the removal of significant numbers of American forces in Afghanistan before the long drawn-out negotiations with the Taliban had been concluded.
So this week's announcement by US Marine General Frank McKenzie, the commander of US Central Command, that Washington intends to make significant reductions to its troop strength in both Iraq and Afghanistan in time for November's US presidential election is entirely in keeping with Mr Trump's promise.
This will mean that American forces in Iraq will reduce from their current level of around 5,200 troops to around 3,000, while in Afghanistan troop levels are expected to fall to around 4,500.
In an attempt to justify the move, Gen McKenzie said the reductions were a reflection of the Trump administration’s confidence in the ability of US-trained Iraqi security forces to tackle any future threats the country might face.
As for Afghanistan, Gen McKenzie said that maintaining a force of around 4,500 would be sufficient to protect American interests in the region. “We don’t want to be an occupying force in this country,” he explained. “But we do have strategic interests, vital interests, that compel us to be certain that these entities, such as Al Qaeda and ISIS, can’t be guests there to attack the United States.”
Obtaining guarantees from the Taliban, the extremist movement that originally allowed Al Qaeda to establish bases in Afghanistan, that the country will no longer be used by militants to launch attacks against the US, such as the September 11 attacks in 2001, has been one of the central demands of the negotiations aimed at bringing the country’s long-running civil war.
But while Taliban negotiators have intimated that they are willing to commit themselves to such an undertaking in return for Washington ending its military involvement in the country, the negotiations between the US and the Taliban have stalled over the vexed issue of releasing an estimated 5,000 Taliban fighters from being held by the Afghan authorities.
The Afghan government of President Ashraf Ghani was initially excluded from the negotiations when an outline deal was agreed in March, and the Afghan government’s qualms about releasing Taliban fighters accused of launching attacks against Afghan security forces meant it was reluctant to meet the group’s demands, thereby prompting a new round of violence throughout the summer.
Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the leader of the Taliban delegation, signs an agreement with Zalmay Khalilzad, US envoy for peace in Afghanistan, at a signing agreement ceremony between members of Afghanistan's Taliban and the US in Doha, Qatar February 29, 2020. Reuters
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo walks ahead of the signing of an agreement between members of Afghanistan's Taliban delegation and the US government in Doha, Qatar. Reuters
Members of Afghanistan's Taliban delegation speak to the media ahead of an agreement signing between them and US officials in Doha, Qatar. Reuters
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu walks ahead of the signing of an agreement between members of Afghanistan's Taliban delegation and the US government in Doha, Qatar. Reuters
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg attends a joint press conference with Afghan President Ghani and US Secretary of Defence Mark Esper on the declaration of a peace deal to be signed between the US and the Taliban, at the presidential palace in Kabul, Afghanistan. EPA
US Secretary of Defence Mark Esper attends a joint press conference with Afghan President Ghani and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg on the declaration of a peace deal to be signed between the US and the Taliban, at the presidential palace in Kabul, Afghanistan. EPA
Members of the Taliban delegation gather ahead of an agreement signing between them and US officials in Doha, Qatar. Reuters
Under pressure from Washington, though, the US finally persuaded the Afghan authorities to release the majority of Taliban captives, thereby paving the way for the Afghan government to participate in the peace talks for the first time.
Announcing a significant reduction in the number of American troops at a critical stage in the negotiations therefore represents a significant gamble on the part of the Trump administration. Indeed, concerns that the US might be sacrificing its national security interests simply to achieve Mr Trump's desire to end Washington's overseas military involvement has already provoked controversy when former defence secretary James Mattis resigned over the issue in late 2018.
Taliban leaders have long believed that Washington will eventually tire of its long-standing military commitment to Afghanistan which, at the time of the US-led coalition’s attempt to bring stability to the country, saw in excess of 100,000 American troops based there.
The fact that the Trump administration's priority now is to reduce America's military presence will certainly raise fears among the Afghan authorities that Washington is abandoning the country to an uncertain fate at the hands of the Taliban. It is a similar story in Iraq, where the recently formed government of Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi is still finding its feet after more than a decade of misrule.
Former Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi hands over to new Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi in Baghdad, Iraq, May 7, 2020. Reuters
Iraq's President Barham Salih instructs newly appointed Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi in Baghdad, Iraq April 9, 2020. Reuters
President Barham Salih receiving Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi at Salam Palace in the capital Baghdad, while both clad in masks due to the Covid-19 pandemic on May 28, 2020. AFP
Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi looks at a map aboard a plane on the way to the northern city of Kirkuk for an official visit on June 2, 2020. AFP
Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi arriving in Kirkuk for an official visit on June 2, 2020. AFP
Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi visits the Great Mosque of al-Nuri in the Old City area, on the west side of Mosul city, northern Iraq, 10 June 2020. EPA
Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi speaks during the reopening ceremony of a bridge which connects East and West Mosul, northern Iraq, 10 June 2020. EPA
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi visits and offers condolences to the family of the late former government advisor and political analyst Hisham al-Hashemi, who was killed by gunmen, in Baghdad, Iraq July 8, 2020. Reuters
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi talks to prisoners during his visit in the central investigation prison in Al-Muthana airport in Baghdad, Iraq July 30, 2020. Reuters
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi speaks to locals in Tarmiyah, Iraq July 20, 2020. Reuters
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi meets with Iraqi teenager Hamid Saeed, who was mistreated by members of security forces, after he was released from jail in Baghdad, Iraq August 3, 2020. Reuters
US President Donald Trump receives Iraq's Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, August 20, 2020. Reuters
US President Donald Trump receives Iraq's Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, August 20, 2020. Reuters
US President Donald Trump receives Iraq's Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, August 20, 2020. Reuters
President Donald Trump meets with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi in the Oval Office of the White House, Thursday, August 20, 2020, in Washington. AP Photo
Iraq's Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi arrives to the southern city of Basra late on August 22, 2020, accompanied by security forces' commanders in a surprise visit. AFP
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi visits and offers condolences to the family of Reham Yacoub, a female activist who was killed by unidentified gunmen, in Basra, Iraq August 22, 2020. Reuters
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi, center, speaks to journalists during his visit to Basra, Iraq, Saturday, August 22, 2020. AP Photo
King Abdullah II of Jordan and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi in the official welcoming ceremony held at Queen Alia International Airport ahead of the trilateral meeting in Amman, Jordan, 25 August 2020. EPA
King Abdullah II of Jordan and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi talking ahead of the trilateral meeting in Amman, Jordan, 25 August 2020. EPA
Apart from battling Iran’s malign influence in Iraqi politics in recent years, Mr Al Kadhimi is committed to ending the corruption and sectarianism that have characterised the running of successive governments since the overthrow of former dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Iraq’s security forces are also having to contend with a revival of ISIS activity in the country in recent months, a challenge that is not helped by the fact that Iran’s continued support for proxies in Iraq and neighbouring Syria is making the task of defeating ISIS immeasurably more difficult.
Speaking during an online discussion hosted by the US Institute of Peace last month, Gen McKenzie conceded that Iran’s continued meddling in the Middle East was “an impediment to the enduring defeat of ISIS". He also warned that ISIS continued “to aspire to regain control of physical terrain” in Iraq and Syria. “Without sustained pressure, they have got the potential to do so in a relatively short period of time,” he said.
Consequently, while Mr Trump’s primary focus is winning November’s election, reducing Washington’s military presence in the Middle East could ultimately prove to be counter-productive in terms of defending Washington’s vital long-term interests.
Con Coughlin is a defence and foreign affairs columnist for The National
if you go
The flights
Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes.
When to visit
March-May and September-November
Visas
Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), EsekaiaDranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), JaenBotes (Exiles), KristianStinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), EmosiVacanau (Harlequins), NikoVolavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), ThinusSteyn (Exiles)
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
Brief scores:
Manchester City 2
Gundogan 27', De Bruyne 85'
Crystal Palace 3
Schlupp 33', Townsend 35', Milivojevic 51' (pen)
Man of the Match: Andros Townsend (Crystal Palace)
Papal Mass will begin at 10.30am at the Zayed Sports City Stadium on Tuesday
Some 17 hymns will be sung by a 120-strong UAE choir
Five hymns will be rehearsed with crowds on Tuesday morning before the Pope arrives at stadium
‘Christ be our Light’ as the entrance song
‘All that I am’ for the offertory or during the symbolic offering of gifts at the altar
‘Make me a Channel of your Peace’ and ‘Soul of my Saviour’ for the communion
‘Tell out my Soul’ as the final hymn after the blessings from the Pope
The choir will also sing the hymn ‘Legions of Heaven’ in Arabic as ‘Assakiroo Sama’
There are 15 Arabic speakers from Syria, Lebanon and Jordan in the choir that comprises residents from the Philippines, India, France, Italy, America, Netherlands, Armenia and Indonesia
The choir will be accompanied by a brass ensemble and an organ
They will practice for the first time at the stadium on the eve of the public mass on Monday evening
RESULT
Arsenal 0 Chelsea 3
Chelsea: Willian (40'), Batshuayi (42', 49')
Match info
Uefa Champions League Group H
Juventus v Valencia, Tuesday, midnight (UAE)
PROFILE OF CURE.FIT
Started: July 2016
Founders: Mukesh Bansal and Ankit Nagori
Based: Bangalore, India
Sector: Health & wellness
Size: 500 employees
Investment: $250 million
Investors: Accel, Oaktree Capital (US); Chiratae Ventures, Epiq Capital, Innoven Capital, Kalaari Capital, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Piramal Group’s Anand Piramal, Pratithi Investment Trust, Ratan Tata (India); and Unilever Ventures (Unilever’s global venture capital arm)
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.
The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.
Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo Power: 630hp Torque: 850Nm Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic Price: From Dh599,000 On sale: Now
Record breaker
The most total field goals made in NBA history, as well as the most consecutive games scoring 10 or more points
The only player in NBA history to reach 10,000 rebounds and 10,000 assists
Four-time regular season MVP and four-time NBA Finals MVP
Six-time NBA All-Defensive selection. Rookie of the Year in 2004
The most All-NBA selections with 21 in a row, including a record 13 first team selections
The most consecutive All-Star selections with 21
The only player to play alongside his son; Bronny James was chosen by the Lakers in the 2024 NBA draft
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
Company profile
Name: Thndr
Started: October 2020
Founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: pre-seed of $800,000
Funding stage: series A; $20 million
Investors: Tiger Global, Beco Capital, Prosus Ventures, Y Combinator, Global Ventures, Abdul Latif Jameel, Endure Capital, 4DX Ventures, Plus VC, Rabacap and MSA Capital
UAE cricketers abroad
Sid Jhurani is not the first cricketer from the UAE to go to the UK to try his luck.
Rameez Shahzad Played alongside Ben Stokes and Liam Plunkett in Durham while he was studying there. He also played club cricket as an overseas professional, but his time in the UK stunted his UAE career. The batsman went a decade without playing for the national team.
Yodhin Punja The seam bowler was named in the UAE’s extended World Cup squad in 2015 despite being just 15 at the time. He made his senior UAE debut aged 16, and subsequently took up a scholarship at Claremont High School in the south of England.
