In the middle of May, leaders of six Balkan nations made the short trip to Sofia in Bulgaria to meet the heads of every European Union country. The six – Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia – are all hoping to join the bloc at some point but the EU has repeatedly put off accession talks. The summit in Sofia was the first time for 15 years that such a meeting had taken place and it ended in disappointment.
Three days later, another suitor went to the Balkans and he went bearing gifts. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, seeking re-election at the end of this month, held a campaign rally in the Bosnian capital Sarajevo, drawing thousands of Turkish citizens from neighbouring countries.
He did not go empty-handed. While there, his government agreed to fund a $3.5 billion highway connecting the capital cities of Bosnia and neighbouring Serbia.
It is not only Bosnia and Serbia that have benefited from Turkey's investment largesse. Airports in Kosovo, banks in Albania, factories in Macedonia and roads, schools and mosques across the region are owned by or have been built with Turkish money. Not a single one of the six Balkan countries that went to meet EU leaders has not been courted by Ankara.
That investment, along with Ottoman-era links and a feeling of disenchantment with a Europe that is keen to keep its doors closed, is buying Turkey a lot of influence in the Balkans and that influence, in turn, buys more leverage with the European Union – which gives Turkey even more freedom to conduct its foreign policy in the Middle East without impediment.
Turkey’s burgeoning investment and concomitant soft power has not gone unnoticed. Weeks before the EU summit, France’s Emmanuel Macron told the European Parliament he did not want “a Balkans that turns toward Turkey or Russia” but went on to suggest the EU needed serious reform before those countries could join.
Apparent proof of this influence happened at the end of March, when six Turkish nationals were arrested in Kosovo and immediately deported home, where they were wanted in connection with the 2016 coup that Turkey has blamed on the Gulen movement.
It was the sort of story that barely merits a mention in the international press but the diplomatic fallout was serious: so incensed was the Kosovan prime minister by the arrests that he fired both the interior minister and the head of the secret service before calling Brussels and Washington to apologise and explain. Within the EU, it was seen as the direct consequence of Turkey’s expanding ties with a Balkan country placing Turkish priorities ahead of the rule of law and EU interests.
The difficulty for the EU is that is does not know how to counter Turkey's influence. The EU summit was an attempt to make peace with the six and draw them back into Europe's orbit but the truth is that the EU, with one of its biggest members leaving and facing rising nationalism, cannot do much. The summit could not even agree to let two of the countries open talks, much less set a date for those talks. Fifteen years ago, the EU declared "the future of the Balkans is within the EU". Now even that aspiration is too much.
The Balkan countries are still outwardly committed to joining the EU. But in Turkey – despite serious historic disagreements – they have found an ally. Ankara, after all, is on the same path, reforming with the promise of joining the European Union, enduring high-handed lectures from Europeans, even as the possibility of membership seems to recede into the distance. When Mr Erdogan speaks, it is with the authority of a brother country that has endured the same humiliations as the Balkans but has met the EU from a position of strength.
Seen from the Middle East, Turkey's increased interests in the Balkans can appear merely part of the usual geopolitical contest for influence. But what happens in the Balkans has profound implications for the Middle East.
The influence that Turkey gains in the Balkans gives it greater leverage with the European Union – and thus weakens Europe’s leverage over Turkey’s policy in other areas, such as in Syria.
Recall that, in 2015, during the peak of the migrant flows out of Syria into Europe, it was via Turkey and then through the western Balkans that the majority travelled. Turkey's influence in that region has vast security implications for Europe, especially as long as the Syrian civil war rages.
So interconnected is the region that Europe may be more willing to give Turkey a free hand in Syria to avoid Ankara stirring up trouble in the Balkans. With so many outside powers jockeying for position inside Syrian territory, any extra leverage that a player such as Turkey can gain will help. Mr Erdogan is certainly betting that the gifts he bears to Bosnia will come back to him via Syria.
Race card
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 (PA) US$100,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
7.05pm: Meydan Classic Listed (TB) $175,000 (Turf) 1,600m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (D) 1,600m
8.50pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy Group 2 (TB) $300,000 (T) 2,810m
9.25pm: Curlin Stakes Listed (TB) $175,000 (D) 2,000m
10pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m
10.35pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m
The National selections
6.30pm: Shahm, 7.05pm: Well Of Wisdom, 7.40pm: Lucius Tiberius, 8.15pm: Captain Von Trapp, 8.50pm: Secret Advisor, 9.25pm: George Villiers, 10pm: American Graffiti, 10.35pm: On The Warpath
SPECS
Nissan 370z Nismo
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 363hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh184,500
THE%20SPECS
%3Cp%3EBattery%3A%2060kW%20lithium-ion%20phosphate%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20Up%20to%20201bhp%3Cbr%3E0%20to%20100kph%3A%207.3%20seconds%3Cbr%3ERange%3A%20418km%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh149%2C900%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
Name: Abeer Al Bah
Born: 1972
Husband: Emirati lawyer Salem Bin Sahoo, since 1992
Children: Soud, born 1993, lawyer; Obaid, born 1994, deceased; four other boys and one girl, three months old
Education: BA in Elementary Education, worked for five years in a Dubai school
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fasset%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2019%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mohammad%20Raafi%20Hossain%2C%20Daniel%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%242.45%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2086%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-series%20B%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Investcorp%2C%20Liberty%20City%20Ventures%2C%20Fatima%20Gobi%20Ventures%2C%20Primal%20Capital%2C%20Wealthwell%20Ventures%2C%20FHS%20Capital%2C%20VN2%20Capital%2C%20local%20family%20offices%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
