Turkey is looking to redraw the Mediterranean map


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Since its earliest days in late 2002, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government of Turkey has been opportunistic.

At first, it used the country’s EU ambitions to barge aside the hostile elite of Ataturk’s republic by promoting Brussels-friendly reforms and democratic standards. But when the going got rough, Mr Erdogan effectively abandoned the EU accession process and set about entrenching his own form of statecraft.

What the opportunism long obscured was that Mr Erdogan is a politician driven by ideological considerations. As time has gone on and Mr Erdogan has grown more set in his ways, the implications have become increasingly clear.

The Turkish research vessel Oruc Reis is being escorted by Ankara's naval ships in contested waters in the Mediterranean Sea, causing friction with European countries. AFP/Turkish Defence Ministry
The Turkish research vessel Oruc Reis is being escorted by Ankara's naval ships in contested waters in the Mediterranean Sea, causing friction with European countries. AFP/Turkish Defence Ministry

President Emmanuel Macron provided a stark readout of Mr Erdogan earlier this week. Speaking to Paris Match, a French weekly, Mr Macron discussed how much effort he has expended engaging with his Turkish counterpart. In the end, he hinted, there was a basic fruitlessness to the talking. Europe faces from Mr Erdogan a destabilising expansionist policy that mixes nationalist and Islamist tenets.

It is not the first time Mr Macron has clashed with Turkey's President in recent months. He has accused the Turkish government of holding "criminal responsibility" for its intervention in Libya, where it has sent thousands of extremist fighters drawn from the Syrian battlefield. Critical of its "dangerous game", Mr Macron also accused Ankara of violating Nato rules of engagement after a clash between a French frigate and a Turkish naval vessel during a suspected arms shipment to Libya.

None of this is likely to push Mr Erdogan off his chosen course, especially after he announced the surprise discovery of a massive natural gas field in the Black Sea on Friday.

With the unflinching but canny resolve of an ideologue, Mr Erdogan has shown his colours in the camp of the Muslim Brotherhood. As one research report from Washington detailed last week, he has offered a haven to as many as 20,000 Egyptians tied to the Muslim Brotherhood since 2013. On August 13, he was to be seen making the Muslim Brotherhood hand salute to the faithful of his ruling party, the AKP, at a meeting in Ankara.

Opportunities have come thick and fast on this path. Turkey's Libyan alliance with factions in Misurata has been sealed on Muslim Brotherhood affinities.

That has pitched the entire Mediterranean basin into a new era of instability. The current situation goes a long way to explaining why Mr Macron is so exercised. In his Paris Match interview he described France as a Mediterranean power.

What Europe as a whole is confronted with is a Turkish effort to carve up the Eastern Mediterranean. Ankara has already signed a memorandum of understanding with the Tripoli authorities to establish an exculsive economic zone.

The resulting dotted lines on the map run from the Libyan coast to Turkey, taking in Crete and the Dodecanese Islands. The idea behind the move goes far beyond demonstrating an alliance between Tripoli and Ankara. It attempts to stymie rivals to Turkey’s plans to develop a Mediterranean natural gas pipeline. A not unrelated development has seen Turkish exploration vessels move into the waters around Cyprus.

Cyprus Foreign Minister Nikos Christodoulides, right, discusses heightened military tensions with Turkey over its ongoing search for hydrocarbons in the Mediterranean with his Greek counterpart Nikos Dendias, on August 18, 2020. AP Photo
Cyprus Foreign Minister Nikos Christodoulides, right, discusses heightened military tensions with Turkey over its ongoing search for hydrocarbons in the Mediterranean with his Greek counterpart Nikos Dendias, on August 18, 2020. AP Photo
What Europe as a whole is confronted with is a Turkish effort to carve up the Eastern Mediterranean

The EU has sanctioned Turkey for unauthorised drilling, but to the chagrin of Mr Macron plus the governments of Greece and Cyprus, the bloc seems disinclined to do any more. Germany has even risked disagreement with France in its diplomatic offensives in the Mediterranean and Libya.

Greece has been left particularly targeted by Mr Erdogan. The latest encroachments raise conflicting issues about Turkey’s territorial waters and the exclusive economic zones that derive from the fact that Greek islands like Kastellorizo lie so close to the Turkish mainland. But international laws and treaties are clear. There is, in fact, some scope for mediation between Turkey and Greece on some of the issues.

Mr Erdogan is not pursuing talks, but instead engaged in jockeying on the high seas. After another clash at sea – this time between Kemal Reis, a Turkish frigate, and Limnos, a Greek one – on August 12, Mr Erdogan issued a warning to Athens.

"If this goes on we will retaliate," he said. Students of history noted that Kemal Reis was a 15th-century Ottoman admiral who fought the Venetian fleet. The exploration vessel the frigate was protecting was the Oruc Reis, named after an Ottoman admiral who became governor of Algiers.

At this rate of deterioration and with only France seeming to appreciate the stakes in the region, it may be reasonable to ask how long other Turkish-Greek territorial disputes that were previously resolved will remain so.

In making power plays, Mr Erdogan is detracting attention at home from the slumping lira and myriad economic problems. To view his current battles on all fronts through that prism is to see the veteran Turkish leader as a political opportunist.

It is much more valuable to witness this as the strategising of an ideologue – one with an agenda stretching far beyond his own country’s exclusive concerns.

Damien McElroy is the London bureau chief of The National

MEFCC information

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The flights

Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.

The hotels

Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.

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A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages. 

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What is graphene?

Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms arranged like honeycomb.

It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were "playing about" with sticky tape and graphite - the material used as "lead" in pencils.

Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But as they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.

By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment had led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.

At the time, many believed it was impossible for such thin crystalline materials to be stable. But examined under a microscope, the material remained stable, and when tested was found to have incredible properties.

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In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics. Their discovery meant physicists could study a new class of two-dimensional materials with unique properties. 

 

LAST-16 FIXTURES

Sunday, January 20
3pm: Jordan v Vietnam at Al Maktoum Stadium, Dubai
6pm: Thailand v China at Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: Iran v Oman at Mohamed bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi

Monday, January 21
3pm: Japan v Saudi Arabia at Sharjah Stadium
6pm: Australia v Uzbekistan at Khalifa bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: UAE v Kyrgyzstan at Zayed Sports City Stadium, Abu Dhabi

Tuesday, January 22
5pm: South Korea v Bahrain at Rashid Stadium, Dubai
8pm: Qatar v Iraq at Al Nahyan Stadium, Abu Dhabi

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Favourite film:

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Favourite holiday destination:

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Muslim Council of Elders condemns terrorism on religious sites

The Muslim Council of Elders has strongly condemned the criminal attacks on religious sites in Britain.

It firmly rejected “acts of terrorism, which constitute a flagrant violation of the sanctity of houses of worship”.

“Attacking places of worship is a form of terrorism and extremism that threatens peace and stability within societies,” it said.

The council also warned against the rise of hate speech, racism, extremism and Islamophobia. It urged the international community to join efforts to promote tolerance and peaceful coexistence.

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How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers

Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.

It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.

The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.

Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.

Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.

He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.

AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”

A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.

Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.

Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.

Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.

By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.

Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.

In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”

Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.

She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.

Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.

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