The most surprising aspect of Turkey's conquest of Afrin is not how it ended, but how it began. In mid-January, reports emerged that the United States would set up a border force of 30,000 troops, half of them drawn from Kurdish militias.
Ankara was furious. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan called it "a terror army" and vowed to "strangle it even before it's born". Within hours, the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had pulled back, saying the situation had been "misportrayed". But the damage was done and Turkish troops began their attack within days.
Two months on, the battle for Afrin is over. America's Kurdish allies have retreated and Syrian rebel flags are flying alongside the Turkish flag over Afrin.
Yet in itself that is extraordinary. Turkey has just openly overturned US policy – through military force, no less – while America stood by. Analysts may blame a loss of prestige dating back to Barack Obama or disengagement brought about by Donald Trump, but the reality is stark: in Syria, the US no longer gets its way.
And it may be about to get worse. Turkey is mere days away from undoing a long-standing US policy in Syria. Only the shake up in Washington and the removal of Mr Tillerson appears to have thrown a spanner into the works.
After Afrin, the gaze of Ankara has now turned to a small city in Syria that has long been the basis of US policy in that region. The city is Manbij, about 96 kilometres east of Afrin, close to the Turkish-Syria border, and the place from which the US has been supporting the Kurdish YPG (People's Protection Units) group in its battles against ISIL.
America's role in Manbij goes back a couple of years to the fight against ISIL by the previous administration. It was under Mr Obama that the US agreed to let Kurdish forces cross the Euphrates to try and push ISIL out of Manbij. At the time, US Vice President Joe Biden told Mr Erdogan that this move was temporary and promised that Kurdish troops would withdraw back across the Euphrates. That hasn't happened yet, but Turkey has not forgotten.
Ever since Turkey invaded Afrin, it has spoken openly of its intent to continue on to Manbij and clear out Kurdish troops, regardless of the US troops stationed there.
The warnings were serious enough for the US secretary of state to request a direct meeting with Turkey's president last month, following which the two sides agreed to create working groups to discuss issues around Syria and Iraq, including Manbij.
The first of those groups, on Syria, met last week in Washington and from leaked reports it appeared a significant deal had been reached. Washington would give up the YPG inside Manbij, who would withdraw across the Euphrates, and instead Turkish and US troops would jointly patrol the area. If true, it would be a significant victory for Turkey, and one that appears to have simply been handed to Ankara.
Pushing the Kurdish militias out of Manbij would please both Turkey and the Syrian rebels, but it would also have the effect of vastly weakening US plans to stay in Syria. Manbij is strategically located midway between Aleppo and Raqqa, close to the border and on the side of the Euphrates River closest to the majority of Syria's population.
Moreover the plan for joint patrols, if true, is merely window-dressing. In time, US patrols would slow down or be stopped, depending on the whims of Washington. But Turkey is there for the long-term and would seek to put its allies from among the Syrian rebels into positions of influence.
This is not mere conjecture, because Turkey has already done this elsewhere. Manbij is part of Turkey's strategy to establish a buffer zone along the border and push back the Syrian Kurds to their historical areas in the north-east.
And it is working. In the bloody chaos of the Syrian civil war, Ankara has been patient and consistent. Two years ago, Turkey and Syrian rebels took the border town of Jarablus, 40km from Manbij, from ISIL. In the months since, Turkey trained Syrian police officers, and sent Turkish medical staff, as well as facilitating reconstruction. In its own quiet way, Turkey has managed to retake a Syrian town from ISIL and repopulate it with Syrians. That far-sightedness and consistency will be difficult for the US to replicate in Manbij, which means time will be on Ankara's side.
Seen in that light, the extent of what Mr Tillerson apparently agreed is astonishing. At a stroke, the US secretary of state was willing to hand over Manbij to Ankara. Now the question is whether that policy shift will survive his replacement.
Because after Mr Tillerson was unceremoniously fired last week there has been some suggestion that Donald Trump's new appointee, former CIA chief Mike Pompeo, will take a harder line on the deal.
But short of a vast shift in focus and resources from Washington, the end result is likely to be the same. Turkey is absolutely committed to denying the Syrian Kurds control of contiguous territory along its border.
The US simply does not have the leverage to shift even the edges of the Syrian conflict in a direction it prefers, and there appears to be no appetite to invest the military and political capital required to get that leverage. Having abandoned the Kurds in Afrin, it seems to be preparing to abandon them in Manbij. Regardless of the man in the White House, Mr Obama's phrase is still Washington doctrine: Syria is still someone else's war.
Itcan profile
Founders: Mansour Althani and Abdullah Althani
Based: Business Bay, with offices in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and India
Sector: Technology, digital marketing and e-commerce
Size: 70 employees
Revenue: On track to make Dh100 million in revenue this year since its 2015 launch
Funding: Self-funded to date
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
'Ashkal'
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The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Apple%20Mac%20through%20the%20years
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The specs: Lamborghini Aventador SVJ
Price, base: Dh1,731,672
Engine: 6.5-litre V12
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm
Torque: 720Nm @ 6,750rpm
Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km
Company%20Profile
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Company: Instabug
Founded: 2013
Based: Egypt, Cairo
Sector: IT
Employees: 100
Stage: Series A
Investors: Flat6Labs, Accel, Y Combinator and angel investors
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.5-litre%204-cylinder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20101hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20135Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Six-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh79%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Spider-Man%202
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How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
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More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
TOURNAMENT INFO
Fixtures
Sunday January 5 - Oman v UAE
Monday January 6 - UAE v Namibia
Wednesday January 8 - Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 - Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 - UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Waheed Ahmed, Zawar Farid, Darius D’Silva, Karthik Meiyappan, Jonathan Figy, Vriitya Aravind, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Basil Hameed, Chirag Suri
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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The Saga Continues
Wu-Tang Clan
(36 Chambers / Entertainment One)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.
The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.
“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.
“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”
Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.
Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.
“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.
The Florida Project
Director: Sean Baker
Starring: Bria Vinaite, Brooklynn Prince, Willem Dafoe
Four stars
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
THE DETAILS
Kaala
Dir: Pa. Ranjith
Starring: Rajinikanth, Huma Qureshi, Easwari Rao, Nana Patekar
Rating: 1.5/5
Representing%20UAE%20overseas
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MATCH INFO
Newcastle United 2 (Willems 25', Shelvey 88')
Manchester City 2 (Sterling 22', De Bruyne 82')
