In a surprising bit of good news for Ankara, Turkey outperformed all of the world’s leading economies in the third quarter, outpacing forecasts with 6.7 per cent real GDP growth thanks to a stimulus campaign that urged banks to lend.
That growth was a mirage, as it spurred a sharp devaluation in the lira and a fast-emerging Covid-19 crisis. After months of only announcing symptomatic cases, the Turkish government shifted its position last week and began revealing all new Covid cases.
Suddenly, with around 30,000 daily, Turkey ranked among the world leaders in terms of rising case numbers, confirming the fears of health experts who argued for months that Turkish authorities were hiding the true extent of the crisis. The Turkish Medical Association believes the declared numbers are still low, and that Turkey is actually seeing some 50,000 new daily cases. Either way, starting on November 15, Turkey experienced 16 consecutive days of record Covid-related deaths, putting its toll near 15,000.
The government last week put new restrictions in place, including weeknight curfews and weekend lockdowns. Restaurants are now delivery-only and foot traffic on major streets and squares, including Istanbul’s central Taksim Square, has been reduced. Authorities are said to be mulling further measures, including an extended lockdown over the New Year holiday. Yet Turkish officials are also aware that this spring’s lockdown led to a sharp economic contraction, of nearly 10 per cent.
Turkey is already seeing economic warning signs. Inflation rose to 14 per cent last month, its highest level since the summer of 2019, prompting US investment bank JP Morgan to warn that Turkey’s economy had serious vulnerabilities and its stewards had no room for error.
Investor rating service Moody’s recently downgraded Turkey’s debt rating deeper into junk status and said a balance-of-payments crisis was likely. A few weeks later the lira fell to an unprecedented low, beneath 8 to the dollar.
The currency stabilised somewhat after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan installed a new Central Bank director, who quickly raised rates, replaced his largely inexperienced son-in-law Berat Albayrak with a more experienced hand as Treasury and Finance Minister and announced a wave of economic reforms.
Still, dark clouds are gathering. For more than a year, US President Donald Trump has held off on sanctioning Turkey for its purchase of Russian-made S-400 missile defence systems – a move required under the US' 2017 Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.
With the incoming Biden administration, that looks set to change. The final version of the US annual defence policy bill unveiled last week mandates that the President sanction Turkey for its S-400 acquisition within 30 days.
A man mourns the death of a relative from Covid-19 at the Kucukcekmece Municipality Morgue in Istanbul last week. Starting on November 15, Turkey experienced 16 consecutive days of record Covid-related deaths. EPA
Also looming for Turkey are possible European Union sanctions in response to Ankara's aggressive posturing in the eastern Mediterranean, in particular its handful of exploratory drilling operations, backed by warships, in maritime areas claimed by EU members Cyprus and Greece.
Those two states and France have been calling on the EU to sanction Ankara for months, and the bloc’s leaders will take up the issue at a summit in Brussels starting on Thursday. “Turkey must stop its provocations and its hostile rhetoric,” Charles Michel, President of the European Council who will preside over the coming summit, said last Friday.
Meanwhile, Mr Erdogan is being challenged like never before. His Justice and Development Party (AKP) co-founder and former deputy prime minister, Bulent Arinc, last week called for the release of leading Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas and activist-philanthropist Osman Kavala, both of whom have been in prison for more than three years on widely questioned charges. Mr Erdogan denounced his long-time colleague, leading to Mr Arinc's resignation from a key advisory council and more talk of AKP fracturing, following last year's departure of two key figures. Also last week, the most pro-government of Turkey's polling groups, ORC Research, acknowledged for the first time that support for the parliamentary alliance between the AKP and the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) had fallen below 50 per cent. The AKP and MHP received support from 48.9 per cent of those polled, while the opposition alliance received 47.4 per cent – a gap within the margin of error.
Economically, Mr Erdogan has been here before. A mid-2018 currency crisis grew into an economic crisis mainly because, that August, the Trump administration sanctioned Turkey for the continued imprisonment of American pastor Andrew Brunson. A desperate Ankara freed Mr Brunson two months later and the economy stabilised, but has remained stalled.
President Erdogan surely remembers this episode, which is why he has been doing all he can to cozy up to the West and avoid sanctions amid a Covid crisis, which could be devastating, politically and economically. Turkey brought its drilling ship Oruc Reis, which has in recent months been a bellwether for its expansionist moves in the eastern Mediterranean, back to port and expressed a readiness for talks on Cyprus and maritime issues; reached out to Saudi Arabia, with Mr Erdogan's phone call to King Salman last month to smooth tensions; and to Israel, with intelligence chief Hakan Fidan leading an effort to normalise ties.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu last week said Turkey backed Ukraine’s international initiative to see Crimea returned to Ukraine, an agenda that will see its first summit in May, with France, Germany, the US and Britain in attendance, along with Turkey.
A supporter of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party holds a mask of their jailed former leader Selahattin Demirtas during a rally in Ankara last month. Reuters
The next day Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin welcomed Zalmay Khalilzad, the US special representative for Afghanistan, to Ankara and voiced support for the ongoing Afghan peace talks. Mr Erdogan plans to announce Turkey’s judicial reform plan on Thursday, which happens to be global Human Rights Day, and some insiders have predicted he will release Kavala or Demirtas, or both.
Turkey and its Nato allies suddenly appear aligned on Saudi Arabia and Israel, Russia and Ukraine, the Afghan war and the eastern Mediterranean – and possibly, at least partially, the rule of law. Is it enough?
We’ll have a better idea of Turkey’s fate very soon. The day after the EU summit begins, Turkey plans to start administering the Chinese-made Covid vaccine to its healthcare workers.
David Lepeska is a veteran journalist who has been covering Turkey for the past decade
Key findings of Jenkins report
Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023 More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Champions League Last 16
Red Bull Salzburg (AUT) v Bayern Munich (GER)
Sporting Lisbon (POR) v Manchester City (ENG)
Benfica (POR) v Ajax (NED)
Chelsea (ENG) v Lille (FRA)
Atletico Madrid (ESP) v Manchester United (ENG)
Villarreal (ESP) v Juventus (ITA)
Inter Milan (ITA) v Liverpool (ENG)
Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid (ESP)
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
U19 WORLD CUP, WEST INDIES
UAE group fixtures (all in St Kitts) Saturday 15 January: v Canada Thursday 20 January: v England Saturday 22 January: v Bangladesh
UAE squad Alishan Sharafu (captain), Shival Bawa, Jash Giyanani, Sailles Jaishankar, Nilansh Keswani, Aayan Khan, Punya Mehra, Ali Naseer, Ronak Panoly, Dhruv Parashar, Vinayak Raghavan, Soorya Sathish, Aryansh Sharma, Adithya Shetty, Kai Smith
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Barings Bank
Barings, one of Britain’s oldest investment banks, was founded in 1762 and operated for 233 years before it went bust after a trading scandal.
Barings Bank collapsed in February 1995 following colossal losses caused by rogue trader Nick Lesson.
Leeson gambled more than $1 billion in speculative trades, wiping out the venerable merchant bank’s cash reserves.
T20 WORLD CUP QUALIFIERS
Qualifier A, Muscat
(All matches to be streamed live on icc.tv)
Fixtures
Friday, February 18: 10am Oman v Nepal, Canada v Philippines; 2pm Ireland v UAE, Germany v Bahrain
Saturday, February 19: 10am Oman v Canada, Nepal v Philippines; 2pm UAE v Germany, Ireland v Bahrain
Monday, February 21: 10am Ireland v Germany, UAE v Bahrain; 2pm Nepal v Canada, Oman v Philippines
Tuesday, February 22: 2pm Semi-finals
Thursday, February 24: 2pm Final
UAE squad:Ahmed Raza(captain), Muhammad Waseem, Chirag Suri, Vriitya Aravind, Rohan Mustafa, Kashif Daud, Zahoor Khan, Alishan Sharafu, Raja Akifullah, Karthik Meiyappan, Junaid Siddique, Basil Hameed, Zafar Farid, Mohammed Boota, Mohammed Usman, Rahul Bhatia
How to book
Call DHA on 800342
Once you are registered, you will receive a confirmation text message
Present the SMS and your Emirates ID at the centre
DHA medical personnel will take a nasal swab
Check results within 48 hours on the DHA app under ‘Lab Results’ and then ‘Patient Services’
Results
57kg quarter-finals
Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Hamed Al Matari (YEM) by points 3-0.
60kg quarter-finals
Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) beat Hyan Aljmyah (SYR) RSC round 2.
63.5kg quarter-finals
Nouredine Samir (UAE) beat Shamlan A Othman (KUW) by points 3-0.
67kg quarter-finals
Mohammed Mardi (UAE) beat Ahmad Ondash (LBN) by points 2-1.
71kg quarter-finals
Ahmad Bahman (UAE) defeated Lalthasanga Lelhchhun (IND) by points 3-0.
Amine El Moatassime (UAE) beat Seyed Kaveh Safakhaneh (IRI) by points 3-0.
81kg quarter-finals
Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Ahmad Hilal (PLE) by points 3-0
Getting there
The flights
Flydubai operates up to seven flights a week to Helsinki. Return fares to Helsinki from Dubai start from Dh1,545 in Economy and Dh7,560 in Business Class.
The stay
Golden Crown Igloos in Levi offer stays from Dh1,215 per person per night for a superior igloo; www.leviniglut.net
Panorama Hotel in Levi is conveniently located at the top of Levi fell, a short walk from the gondola. Stays start from Dh292 per night based on two people sharing; www. golevi.fi/en/accommodation/hotel-levi-panorama
Arctic Treehouse Hotel in Rovaniemi offers stays from Dh1,379 per night based on two people sharing; www.arctictreehousehotel.com
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available. Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus. Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel. Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
Difference between fractional ownership and timeshare
Although similar in its appearance, the concept of a fractional title deed is unlike that of a timeshare, which usually involves multiple investors buying “time” in a property whereby the owner has the right to occupation for a specified period of time in any year, as opposed to the actual real estate, said John Peacock, Head of Indirect Tax and Conveyancing, BSA Ahmad Bin Hezeem & Associates, a law firm.
Tailors and retailers miss out on back-to-school rush
Tailors and retailers across the city said it was an ominous start to what is usually a busy season for sales.
With many parents opting to continue home learning for their children, the usual rush to buy school uniforms was muted this year.
“So far we have taken about 70 to 80 orders for items like shirts and trousers,” said Vikram Attrai, manager at Stallion Bespoke Tailors in Dubai.
“Last year in the same period we had about 200 orders and lots of demand.
“We custom fit uniform pieces and use materials such as cotton, wool and cashmere.
“Depending on size, a white shirt with logo is priced at about Dh100 to Dh150 and shorts, trousers, skirts and dresses cost between Dh150 to Dh250 a piece.”
A spokesman for Threads, a uniform shop based in Times Square Centre Dubai, said customer footfall had slowed down dramatically over the past few months.
“Now parents have the option to keep children doing online learning they don’t need uniforms so it has quietened down.”
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
David Haye record
Total fights: 32 Wins: 28 Wins by KO: 26 Losses: 4
Profile of Hala Insurance
Date Started: September 2018
Founders: Walid and Karim Dib
Based: Abu Dhabi
Employees: Nine
Amount raised: $1.2 million
Funders: Oman Technology Fund, AB Accelerator, 500 Startups, private backers
5pm: Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan Racing Festival Purebred Arabian Cup Conditions (PA) Dh 200,000 (Turf) 1,600m
Winner: Hameem, Adrie de Vries (jockey), Abdallah Al Hammadi (trainer) 5.30pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak Cup Conditions (PA) Dh 200,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: Winked, Connor Beasley, Abdallah Al Hammadi 6pm: Sheikh Sultan bin Zayed Al Nahyan National Day Cup Listed (TB) Dh 380,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: Boerhan, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard 6.30pm: Sheikh Sultan bin Zayed Al Nahyan National Day Group 3 (PA) Dh 500,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: AF Alwajel, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel 7pm: Sheikh Sultan bin Zayed Al Nahyan National Day Jewel Crown Group 1 (PA) Dh 5,000,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Messi, Pat Dobbs, Timo Keersmaekers 7.30pm: Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan Racing Festival Handicap (PA) Dh 150,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Harrab, Ryan Curatolo, Jean de Roualle 8pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 100,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: AF Alareeq, Connor Beasley, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
