The Middle East has been a region in search of a map from the beginning of time. With vast swaths of the landscape divided along tribal lines or those of principalities for much of history and other divisions ebbing and flowing with the ambitions or whims of empires, the only thing that has been certain about Middle Eastern borders is that they would drift like sand dunes.
What seemed stable amid the shifts were the importance of the three enduring civilisations that have withstood the twists offered up the centuries: those represented today by Egypt, Turkey and Iran. Over time, whether they were rising or falling, they were constants and in their way, stabilising or at least factors that could be counted on.
But today’s Middle East has a new look about it. And it is not a comforting one.
During the past century, the map has been effectively redrawn by the “spheres of influence” of Sykes-Picot, two wars, the fall of colonialism, the realities of the Cold War and a steady stream of local conflicts. But throughout, despite all the upheavals, there were also substantial stabilising factors. For example, during the Cold War, conflicts involving Israel and the Arab world were constrained by the threat of escalation that would draw in the Cold War powers more directly. At other times, regional balance, such as that between Iraq and Iran, was used to contain the ambitions of each.
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But we are in very different circumstances today. As far as the great regional civilisations go, Egypt has become, by necessity, inward-looking. Turkey has profoundly alienated its Nato allies and is riven by internal political tensions. Only Iran, among these is strengthening.
Iraq, the one-time counterbalance to Iran, has been shattered and today, Baghdad is closer to Tehran than at any time in recent memory. Indeed, the reality is that thanks to America’s ill-considered war in Iraq and the subsequent rise of ISIL as well as the war in Syria, Iran is now in a highly influential position across the entire northern tier of the Middle East. From Lebanon to western Afghanistan, Iran has grown to be the dominant regional force.
They have done so with the assistance of Russia, a state committed to active involvement in Syria for a long time to come and one supplying Iran with vital arms. And who is there to counterbalance them?
With Egypt sidelined, a new coalition led by Saudi Arabia must play that role. But the kingdom is both going through a leadership transition and is unaccustomed to playing such a leading role. The coalition behind it consists of some rich states but also states that are small. While it is possible that these states may form the moderate Arab coalition the region has long needed to counterbalance Iran and keep the peace from within, today that coalition is nascent and all the actors are learning their parts.
What is more, the greatest supporter of that coalition, the United States has through two presidents now reduced its role and signalled a lesser commitment to be involved. Further, a key element of the Saudi ability to counteract Iran is an unspoken partnership with Israel - a fragile proposition at best given history and politics in both countries.
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In essence, the region has become bipolar, orbiting primarily around Saudi Arabia and Iran, two countries divided by 1,000 years of history. Both sides have shown they are in a combative mood, willing to engage each other in proxy contests and to talk more openly of something larger and more devastating. The outside actors are involved enough to stoke the confidence of the two sides but not engaged enough diplomatically to be effective stabilisers.
In other words, at a time of high tensions, there is a new geopolitical calculus in the region, some of the key leaders are either inexperienced or leading countries inexperienced in active regional foreign policy, potentially stabilising forces outside the region are not playing a constructive role, and the open wounds of recent conflicts are certain to fester because none will step up with political, humanitarian and economic initiatives required to bring about healing and stabilisation.
Compound all this with the fact that some leaders, like Donald Trump in the US, might soon actually feel that they would benefit from the distractions further regional conflict might bring and it is hard not to draw ominous conclusions. At least it is, if the moderate Arab coalition does not soon come to recognise that beyond demonstrating their toughness and their strength they also begin to show that they can be peacemakers, stabilisers, healers and regimes inexperienced in such high stakes security issues quickly master their briefs.
That is not impossible. However, finding a winner will be, if this new bipolar reality produces the kind of region-wide conflict that is all too imaginable. In other words, it will take the triumph of considerable wisdom over experience to ensure that the next map of the Middle East is not written in blood.
David Rothkopf is CEO of The Rothkopf Group, senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and most recently author of The Great Questions of Tomorrow
5 of the most-popular Airbnb locations in Dubai
Bobby Grudziecki, chief operating officer of Frank Porter, identifies the five most popular areas in Dubai for those looking to make the most out of their properties and the rates owners can secure:
• Dubai Marina
The Marina and Jumeirah Beach Residence are popular locations, says Mr Grudziecki, due to their closeness to the beach, restaurants and hotels.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh482 to Dh739
Two bedroom: Dh627 to Dh960
Three bedroom: Dh721 to Dh1,104
• Downtown
Within walking distance of the Dubai Mall, Burj Khalifa and the famous fountains, this location combines business and leisure. “Sure it’s for tourists,” says Mr Grudziecki. “Though Downtown [still caters to business people] because it’s close to Dubai International Financial Centre."
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh497 to Dh772
Two bedroom: Dh646 to Dh1,003
Three bedroom: Dh743 to Dh1,154
• City Walk
The rising star of the Dubai property market, this area is lined with pristine sidewalks, boutiques and cafes and close to the new entertainment venue Coca Cola Arena. “Downtown and Marina are pretty much the same prices,” Mr Grudziecki says, “but City Walk is higher.”
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh524 to Dh809
Two bedroom: Dh682 to Dh1,052
Three bedroom: Dh784 to Dh1,210
• Jumeirah Lake Towers
Dubai Marina’s little brother JLT resides on the other side of Sheikh Zayed road but is still close enough to beachside outlets and attractions. The big selling point for Airbnb renters, however, is that “it’s cheaper than Dubai Marina”, Mr Grudziecki says.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh422 to Dh629
Two bedroom: Dh549 to Dh818
Three bedroom: Dh631 to Dh941
• Palm Jumeirah
Palm Jumeirah's proximity to luxury resorts is attractive, especially for big families, says Mr Grudziecki, as Airbnb renters can secure competitive rates on one of the world’s most famous tourist destinations.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh503 to Dh770
Two bedroom: Dh654 to Dh1,002
Three bedroom: Dh752 to Dh1,152
MATCH INFO
Everton 2 Southampton 1
Everton: Walcott (15'), Richarlison (31' )
Southampton: Ings (54')
Man of the match: Theo Walcott (Everton)
Avengers: Endgame
Directors: Anthony Russo, Joe Russo
Starring: Robert Downey Jr, Chris Evans, Scarlett Johansson, Chris Hemsworth, Josh Brolin
4/5 stars
JOKE'S%20ON%20YOU
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RESULTS
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Company%C2%A0profile
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The Uefa Awards winners
Uefa Men's Player of the Year: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Uefa Women's Player of the Year: Lucy Bronze (Lyon)
Best players of the 2018/19 Uefa Champions League
Goalkeeper: Alisson (Liverpool)
Defender: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Midfielder: Frenkie de Jong (Ajax)
Forward: Lionel Messi (Barcelona)
Uefa President's Award: Eric Cantona
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Vidaamuyarchi
Director: Magizh Thirumeni
Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5
Sinopharm vaccine explained
The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades.
“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.
"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."
This is then injected into the body.
"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.
"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."
The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.
Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.
“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
'Morbius'
Director: Daniel Espinosa
Stars: Jared Leto, Matt Smith, Adria Arjona
Rating: 2/5
If you go...
Fly from Dubai or Abu Dhabi to Chiang Mai in Thailand, via Bangkok, before taking a five-hour bus ride across the Laos border to Huay Xai. The land border crossing at Huay Xai is a well-trodden route, meaning entry is swift, though travellers should be aware of visa requirements for both countries.
Flights from Dubai start at Dh4,000 return with Emirates, while Etihad flights from Abu Dhabi start at Dh2,000. Local buses can be booked in Chiang Mai from around Dh50
Tuesday's fixtures
Kyrgyzstan v Qatar, 5.45pm
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
