Iran has long been fault line in the politics of great power rivalries, and now it is increasingly so. China and Russia have been investing in the country based on their own calculated desires for the region, but also in the context of their respective rivalries with the US. This, however, does not stop them from being deeply concerned about the costs that could come with their investments in the form of US sanctions targeting Iranian interests.
A new flashpoint of the wider tension, however, is in Lebanon. Russia, which has an expensive alliance with Iran in Syria, has declined to take on the same level of involvement in Lebanon. Iranian allies in Beirut – namely, Hezbollah – have therefore eyed eyeing Chinese funds and expertise to restore the city and its port after this month’s devastating ammonium nitrate explosion demolished them. The speediness and lack of conditionality that comes with Chinese support would provide a shortcut for Hezbollah to pre-empt any other powers stepping in as the city’s saviour and to bring its dominance of Lebanese politics to the level of a monopoly.
Iran has unveiled a new surface-to-surface ballistic missile called "Martyr Qassem Suleimani" to reassert its growing influence in the Middle East, on August 20, 2020. West Asia News Agency via Reuters
Iran’s leadership is seizing the period running up to the US presidential elections to consolidate its agenda in Lebanon, Iraq and the wider region by imposing new facts on the ground while Washington is distracted. The distraction may even last until January, should the incumbent, Donald Trump, lose, requiring a transition period until the new president’s inauguration. For Iran, it is an opportunity to consolidate existing alliances or secure new support with Russia and China in arenas like Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. The next two to four months are, therefore, a precious gift that Tehran cannot afford to squander.
As Iran advances in the region, the Gulf states may be less exposed than their other Arab neighbours – not because they are not in Iran’s crosshairs, but because China and Russia have huge trade interests in the Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Therefore, Moscow and Beijing may help to contain Iran’s designs for the Gulf region.
Lebanon, however, will not be so fortunate. There is little incentive for Russia and China to deter Iran’s prospective takeover of the country. The US will object loudly, and while Gulf states will be unwilling to ignore the implications of growing Iranian influence in Lebanon and a potential showdown between great powers there, there will be a limit to how much they would want to wade in.
At the UN Security Council, the great-power battle now revolves around a “snapback” of comprehensive international sanctions against Iran. The sanctions would be triggered by Iranian non-compliance with the nuclear deal Tehran signed with former US president Barack Obama and European powers in 2015. On Thursday, the US formally initiated Security Council proceedings to trigger the snapback, but it has been opposed by European signatories to the nuclear deal on the grounds that, as Mr Trump has since withdrawn the US from the agreement, Washington has no standing to do so.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo departs a meeting with members of the UN Security Council about Iran's alleged non-compliance with a nuclear deal at the United Nations in New York, August 20, 2020. AFP
There is little incentive for Russia and China to deter Iran's prospective takeover of Lebanon's political structure
The division between Western allies is encouraging for Russia, as it signals that a harsher, more comprehensive sanctions regime is unlikely to pass. Both Russia and China are eager to do more business in Iran, including potential arms deals. While the US would no doubt react punitively with its own sanctions directed at both countries, they will not be as biting. A full sanctions regime against Russia and even China would have devastating effects for both nations’ economies.
If the price of Russia and China’s endorsement of Iran is so costly, then why continue the alliance? And why recognise Hezbollah, which Washington and its allies classify as a terror organisation? Much of it is simply to do with counterbalancing the US, but it is possible that Moscow and Beijing will need to reassess. Indeed, allying with Iran as it embroils itself in increasing complexity – with Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Popular Mobilisation Front militias in Iraq, as well as the Houthis in Yemen – may just prove more expensive than it is worth.
For one thing, they risk alienating Gulf states, particularly if they begin supplying Iran with weapons it will threaten to use against Saudi Arabia or the UAE. Secondly, the US, regardless of which administration sits in the White House, is unlikely to tolerate any flow of Russian and Chinese weaponry to Iran that would allow it to monopolise influence in Iraq and Syria at the expense of American strategic interests.
Iran is no doubt unrelenting in its efforts to sway Russia and China to supply it with weapons, anxious that the two countries may hold back due to the threat of sanctions. Its efforts to supplant American and European influence over Beirut’s reconstruction are part of its sales pitch, by showing that in Lebanon Iran is the only game in town.
China may decide that Iran is a viable window to wider influence in the Middle East and that its relationships with Arab states are perfectly stable as exclusively bilateral ones. It is only likely to recalculate if it becomes clear that, in the regional polarisation between Iran andthe majority of Arab states, it has to choose a clear side.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute
Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.
One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.
The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.
Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.
It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.
On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.
Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.
Liverpool v Bayern Munich, midnight (Wednesday), BeIN Sports
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
8.15pm Al Bastakiya Trial Conditions $100,000 (D) 1.900m
8.50pm Al Fahidi Fort Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,400m
9.25pm Handicap $135,000 (D) 2,000m
The National selections
6.30pm: Gifts Of Gold
7.05pm Final Song
7.40pm Equilateral
8.15pm Dark Of Night
8.50pm Mythical Magic
9.25pm Franz Kafka
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
- 4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon
- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
Sunday
Brescia v Lazio (3.30pm)
SPAL v Verona (6pm)
Genoa v Sassuolo (9pm)
AS Roma v Torino (11.45pm)
Monday
Bologna v Fiorentina (3.30pm)
AC Milan v Sampdoria (6pm)
Juventus v Cagliari (6pm)
Atalanta v Parma (6pm)
Lecce v Udinese (9pm)
Napoli v Inter Milan (11.45pm)
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened. He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia. Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”. Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
'The Ice Road'
Director: Jonathan Hensleigh
Stars: Liam Neeson, Amber Midthunder, Laurence Fishburne
2/5
Company Profile
Name: Thndr Started: 2019 Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr Sector: FinTech Headquarters: Egypt UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi Current number of staff: More than 150 Funds raised: $22 million
Key changes
Commission caps
For life insurance products with a savings component, Peter Hodgins of Clyde & Co said different caps apply to the saving and protection elements:
• For the saving component, a cap of 4.5 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 90 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• On the protection component, there is a cap of 10 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 160 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• Indemnity commission, the amount of commission that can be advanced to a product salesperson, can be 50 per cent of the annualised premium for the first year or 50 per cent of the total commissions on the policy calculated.
• The remaining commission after deduction of the indemnity commission is paid equally over the premium payment term.
• For pure protection products, which only offer a life insurance component, the maximum commission will be 10 per cent of the annualised premium multiplied by the length of the policy in years.
Disclosure
Customers must now be provided with a full illustration of the product they are buying to ensure they understand the potential returns on savings products as well as the effects of any charges. There is also a “free-look” period of 30 days, where insurers must provide a full refund if the buyer wishes to cancel the policy.
“The illustration should provide for at least two scenarios to illustrate the performance of the product,” said Mr Hodgins. “All illustrations are required to be signed by the customer.”
Another illustration must outline surrender charges to ensure they understand the costs of exiting a fixed-term product early.
Illustrations must also be kept updatedand insurers must provide information on the top five investment funds available annually, including at least five years' performance data.
“This may be segregated based on the risk appetite of the customer (in which case, the top five funds for each segment must be provided),” said Mr Hodgins.
Product providers must also disclose the ratio of protection benefit to savings benefits. If a protection benefit ratio is less than 10 per cent "the product must carry a warning stating that it has limited or no protection benefit" Mr Hodgins added.
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
