The Turkish leadership has adopted the same political model as the Iranian leadership, imposing its ideological agenda internally and flexing its military muscle regionally. They are both determined to export their religious ideologies to Arab countries – Turkey dreams of leading Sunni Arabs while Iran seeks to rally Shia Arabs – with both quests based on delusions of grandeur.
Sunni-Shia strife is at the heart of their projects. The weakening of several Arab states in recent times has encouraged Turkey to seek to restore the glories of its Ottoman past while Iran wants to convince itself that Persians are superior to Arabs. But the sectarian strike amounts to a precious gift for Israel, as this serves to weaken the Jewish state's enemies. Also to Israel's advantage is the fact that neither Turkey not Iran seeks a direct confrontation with Tel Aviv.
In much the same way, the preservation of tense relations with the West appears to be an ideological trait shared by both countries. Tactically, Ankara and Tehran feign hostility towards the West. Yet strategically, they are keen to not escalate tensions, particularly with the US.
Read More from Raghida Dergham
The point is, for all their adventurism, they know that their geopolitical moves do not exist in a vacuum. And that there could be a price to pay for any overreach on their part. With 114 days left until the US presidential election that pits incumbent Donald Trump against Joe Biden, the question therefore is how both countries, but specifically Iran, are factoring it into their geopolitical calculations.
They are both unpredictable entities, so it is hard to tell.
Today, Turkey is playing a destabilising role in North Africa through its policies in Libya and Tunisia, knowing full well that Washington lacks the appetite to intervene in the war-torn country. In a way, Ankara is helping the US by indirectly keeping Russia's ambitions there in check. Could this change after the US election?
Iran, meanwhile, is partially responsible for the economic and political problems in Lebanon. For its part, it has come to dominate Lebanon through the extremist group Hezbollah, which is allied with disparate political entities led by President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Hassan Diab.
In Iraq, Tehran is facing more difficulties due to the US troop presence. The fact also remains that Iraq has a functioning state even as Lebanon has an abnormal one. At the same time, however, Iran is sabotaging Iraq's future with the help of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, a coalition of militia groups that stand accused of assassinating leading national and intellectual figures, such as Husham Al Hashimi, with the purpose of intimidating anyone who dares think outside the Iranian box.
In the context of Tehran-Washington relations, what is happening at sea is just as important as what is going on inland.
Tehran’s senior military leaders are expected to retaliate against US attempts to seize Iranian oil tankers en route to Venezuela, Washington's adversary in South America. But what are the prospects of a stinging response from Tehran? There is no clear answer yet.
I am led to believe that the regime might seize oil tankers owned by Gulf countries. It will no doubt desire to exact even greater damage than that. But in reality, its hands are tied despite its advanced military capabilities. The leadership in Tehran pretends to be strong but it is under domestic and international siege as a result of an erosion of popular trust and approval, as well as of crippling US-led sanctions.
If it remains calm in the face of the tanker seizures, the regime would appear weak with potentially a heavy price to pay domestically. On the other hand, in the unlikely event that it responds militarily by – for example – shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, this would play into the hands of American foreign policy hawks in an election season.
Such is the extent of the regime's unpredictability that there seems to be a lack of consensus – at least among experts I spoke to – on whether it will risk incurring the wrath of America or, instead, wait to see if who will win the November election.
Speaking at the 10th e-policy circle of the Beirut Institute Summit in Abu Dhabi earlier in the week, Brett McGurk, a US national security veteran who served in three consecutive administrations, said the Iranians will be forced to take some form of action. “My experience with the Iranians is that they follow our domestic politics extremely closely, so I think they are probably calculating if there may well be an incident," he said. On the chances of a military confrontation before the election, Mr McGurk said: “I wouldn't put it past the Iranians to do something."
Tactically, Ankara and Tehran feign hostility towards the West. Yet strategically, they are keen to not escalate tensions, particularly with the US.
John Sawers, the former chief of Britain's Secret Intelligence Service, holds a different view. "My own sense is that the risks of a clash in the Middle East have gone up, but I think the Iranians will probably be relatively calm in the senses in the same way they were to my surprise after the killing of Qassem Sulemani," he said during the same discussion, while referring to the assassination of Iran's most influential commander in Baghdad in January.
Both Mr McGurk and Mr Sawers believe that the US election will be historic and that a Biden presidency would be more reassuring for America's allies, with the latter predicting that a second Trump term would amount to a “rocky ride” for the world.
The question is whether Mr Biden will be inclined to revive some of the policies of former president Barack Obama, in whose administration he served as vice president, particularly those reflecting its accommodation of the Iranian regime and the Turkish-backed Muslim Brotherhood. After all, Susan Rice and Valerie Jarrett – both officials in the Obama White House – are said to be on Mr Biden's shortlist for vice president.
Mr McGurk, though, warned against drawing such a conclusion. He said what the Obama administration pursued in Egypt, by extending support to the erstwhile Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government in Cairo reflected “a unique moment in history with the Arab Spring and with everything that came of it".
Indeed, the world is a different place from what it was during the Arab uprisings in 2011. Whatever be the outcome of the election, therefore, both Iran and Turkey will be expected to continue their expansionist projects, sometimes even in co-ordination, such as in Syria.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
2020 Oscars winners: in numbers
- Parasite – 4
- 1917– 3
- Ford v Ferrari – 2
- Joker – 2
- Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood – 2
- American Factory – 1
- Bombshell – 1
- Hair Love – 1
- Jojo Rabbit – 1
- Judy – 1
- Little Women – 1
- Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl) – 1
- Marriage Story – 1
- Rocketman – 1
- The Neighbors' Window – 1
- Toy Story 4 – 1
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Financial considerations before buying a property
Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.
“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says.
Also, shop around for the best mortgage interest rate. Understand the terms and conditions, especially what happens after any introductory periods, Ms Glynn adds.
Using a good mortgage broker is worth the investment to obtain the best rate available for a buyer’s needs and circumstances. A good mortgage broker will help the buyer understand the terms and conditions of the mortgage and make the purchasing process efficient and easier.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Top 5 concerns globally:
1. Unemployment
2. Spread of infectious diseases
3. Fiscal crises
4. Cyber attacks
5. Profound social instability
Top 5 concerns in the Mena region
1. Energy price shock
2. Fiscal crises
3. Spread of infectious diseases
4. Unmanageable inflation
5. Cyber attacks
Source: World Economic Foundation
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
How much of your income do you need to save?
The more you save, the sooner you can retire. Tuan Phan, a board member of SimplyFI.com, says if you save just 5 per cent of your salary, you can expect to work for another 66 years before you are able to retire without too large a drop in income.
In other words, you will not save enough to retire comfortably. If you save 15 per cent, you can forward to another 43 working years. Up that to 40 per cent of your income, and your remaining working life drops to just 22 years. (see table)
Obviously, this is only a rough guide. How much you save will depend on variables, not least your salary and how much you already have in your pension pot. But it shows what you need to do to achieve financial independence.
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.