Efforts in Lebanon to form a new government are continuing – a process that has been ongoing since last October without success. If this fails yet again and no steps are taken to initiate a reform programme to secure international financial assistance for the collapsing economy, the country's disintegration will accelerate until we may no longer be able to speak of a shared entity called Lebanon.
Increasing fragmentation may emerge instead, as the state loses more power and cohesiveness. Sectarian parties, in their places of geographical concentration, may begin to manage the security of those areas and even perhaps eventually strive to do the same for local economic affairs.
A revealing development took place on May 20. The Lebanese Forces party sought to prevent Syrians in mainly Christian areas from voting in their country’s presidential election, as they planned to cast ballots for the Syrian President Bashar Al Assad. The reaction had little to do with the election. Rather, the Lebanese Forces sought to show they controlled the streets in Christian areas, where young men had been deployed to prevent manifestations of support for the Assad regime.
Their actions were aimed at showing that a framework exists for a local protection force if need be, even ultimately a militia. The Lebanese Forces were implying that they still can be the defenders of Christian-majority areas, as they were during the civil war years.
The calculations may not be military at this stage. This is not about preparing for conflict so much as taking preventive measures in case the state can no longer ensure the safety of citizens. Already, security personnel, earning salaries now worth nothing, often fail to respond when called to intervene in disputes.
There is a tendency among many people to associate what is happening with the experience of the civil war. They think if self-defence groups arise outside the realm of the state, civil war and sectarian conflict will follow.
While that cannot be ruled out, it is hardly inevitable. As the activities of sectarian self-defence groups become institutionalised, their interests may indeed clash with those of other groups, creating tensions. However, it is equally, if not more, possible that we may see something different – a form of creeping and informal national unravelling, without military implications, that gradually takes on permanence at the expense of the idea of an interconnected state.
It is alarming that many Lebanese do not seem particularly committed to maintaining a unitary Lebanese state. This varies according to community, but certainly in many Christian areas, the idea of separation is generally seen as something positive for two reasons: Christians are conscious that they are a shrinking minority; and some believe that because Lebanon is under Hezbollah’s and Iran’s thumb, it is preferable to break away from such a condition.
It is alarming that many Lebanese do not seem particularly committed to maintaining a unitary Lebanese state
Hezbollah’s reaction to the economic crisis has highlighted the fractured nature of how political parties have started adapting to the situation. The party is selling subsidised Iranian goods in its areas, as well as offering credit facilities outside the state’s authority. While the effect of such steps on the wider Shiite community remains to be seen, the party’s message is plain: We will take care of our own and don’t really care what happens to the rest of Lebanese society.
However, there are also factors playing against full separation. Hezbollah may have dollars to be able to engage in such activities – whether provided by Iran or other financiers, or from its trafficking activities abroad. But most other sectarian parties have few sustainable sources of foreign currency. In other words, if sectarian-majority enclaves begin taking shape, the development of functioning economies is likely to be much more complicated, if at all possible.
This implies that the economic prerequisites for separation are not guaranteed. It is far more likely that amid de facto fragmentation, Hezbollah would become a major national economic driver. If the state’s foreign currency reserves run out – Lebanon is almost there – it is conceivable that Hezbollah could guarantee vital necessities such as fuel imports, for example, and sell to different parts of the country. In effect, the Lebanese would begin financing the party, not Iran.
However, whether Hezbollah would allow Lebanon to break apart is unclear. It may yet favour a state to legitimise its role. But that does not mean it would oppose a more fragmented system if that becomes inevitable. Such an order could force sectarian parties to absorb popular discontent, so that less anger is directed against Hezbollah, and facilitate the party’s divide and conquer strategy.
The real question is whether, if the system fragments and this becomes ingrained, Lebanon can be re-established on the same foundations as it was previously. There is a real risk that a new social contract would have to be found to replace the one that the economic collapse is now helping to undermine.
The current social contract, while labelled a pact between different sects, became a system that apportioned national wealth among sectarian leaders and bankrupted the country. Reviving that arrangement is impossible today. Either the Lebanese must find a new consensus around a vision for the state, or their country’s centrifugal forces will continue to drive society in disparate directions. Even if Lebanon remains as one, those dynamics will not disappear.
Michael Young is a Lebanon columnist for The National
South and West: From a Notebook
Joan Didion
Fourth Estate
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Company Profile
Founder: Omar Onsi
Launched: 2018
Employees: 35
Financing stage: Seed round ($12 million)
Investors: B&Y, Phoenician Funds, M1 Group, Shorooq Partners
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
The biog
Nickname: Mama Nadia to children, staff and parents
Education: Bachelors degree in English Literature with Social work from UAE University
As a child: Kept sweets on the window sill for workers, set aside money to pay for education of needy families
Holidays: Spends most of her days off at Senses often with her family who describe the centre as part of their life too
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
2020 Oscars winners: in numbers
- Parasite – 4
- 1917– 3
- Ford v Ferrari – 2
- Joker – 2
- Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood – 2
- American Factory – 1
- Bombshell – 1
- Hair Love – 1
- Jojo Rabbit – 1
- Judy – 1
- Little Women – 1
- Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl) – 1
- Marriage Story – 1
- Rocketman – 1
- The Neighbors' Window – 1
- Toy Story 4 – 1
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 200
Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE FIXTURES
October 18 – 7.30pm, UAE v Oman, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
October 19 – 7.30pm, UAE v Ireland, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
October 21 – 2.10pm, UAE v Hong Kong, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
October 22 – 2.10pm, UAE v Jersey, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
October 24 – 10am, UAE v Nigeria, Abu Dhabi Cricket Oval 1
October 27 – 7.30pm, UAE v Canada, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
October 29 – 2.10pm, Playoff 1 – A2 v B3; 7.30pm, Playoff 2 – A3 v B2, at Dubai International Stadium.
October 30 – 2.10pm, Playoff 3 – A4 v Loser of Play-off 1; 7.30pm, Playoff 4 – B4 v Loser of Play-off 2 at Dubai International Stadium
November 1 – 2.10pm, Semifinal 1 – B1 v Winner of Play-off 1; 7.30pm, Semifinal 2 – A1 v Winner of Play-off 2 at Dubai International Stadium
November 2 – 2.10pm, Third place Playoff – B1 v Winner of Play-off 1; 7.30pm, Final, at Dubai International Stadium
Silent Hill f
Publisher: Konami
Platforms: PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PC
Rating: 4.5/5
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
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PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
More coverage from the Future Forum
The Vile
Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah
Director: Majid Al Ansari
Rating: 4/5
The Specs
Engine 3.8-litre, twin-turbo V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 582bhp (542bhp in GTS model)
Torque: 730Nm
Price: Dh649,000 (Dh549,000 for GTS)
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs: Macan Turbo
Engine: Dual synchronous electric motors
Power: 639hp
Torque: 1,130Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Touring range: 591km
Price: From Dh412,500
On sale: Deliveries start in October
Tips from the expert
Dobromir Radichkov, chief data officer at dubizzle and Bayut, offers a few tips for UAE residents looking to earn some cash from pre-loved items.
- Sellers should focus on providing high-quality used goods at attractive prices to buyers.
- It’s important to use clear and appealing photos, with catchy titles and detailed descriptions to capture the attention of prospective buyers.
- Try to advertise a realistic price to attract buyers looking for good deals, especially in the current environment where consumers are significantly more price-sensitive.
- Be creative and look around your home for valuable items that you no longer need but might be useful to others.
Cultural fiesta
What: The Al Burda Festival
When: November 14 (from 10am)
Where: Warehouse421, Abu Dhabi
The Al Burda Festival is a celebration of Islamic art and culture, featuring talks, performances and exhibitions. Organised by the Ministry of Culture and Knowledge Development, this one-day event opens with a session on the future of Islamic art. With this in mind, it is followed by a number of workshops and “masterclass” sessions in everything from calligraphy and typography to geometry and the origins of Islamic design. There will also be discussions on subjects including ‘Who is the Audience for Islamic Art?’ and ‘New Markets for Islamic Design.’ A live performance from Kuwaiti guitarist Yousif Yaseen should be one of the highlights of the day.
Sri Lanka-India Test series schedule
1st Test July 26-30 in Galle
2nd Test August 3-7 in Colombo
3rd Test August 12-16 in Pallekele
The Gentlemen
Director: Guy Ritchie
Stars: Colin Farrell, Hugh Grant
Three out of five stars
MATCH INFO
West Ham United 2 (Antonio 73', Ogbonna 90 5')
Tottenham Hotspur 3 (Son 36', Moura 42', Kane 49')
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
