I have recently been looking at figures on the growth in the UAE's population since it was formed. The first ever census, three years before federation, set the total population at around 180,000. Latest estimates suggest it's somewhere around 8.3 million.
It's worth recalling that the country has always had significant expatriate communities for hundreds, if not thousands, of years. According to one official statement, Emiratis now account for only around 11.5 per cent of the total, outnumbered by waves of immigration, driven by employment opportunities.
What intrigues me is the changes in the composition of the expatriate community. When I arrived in Abu Dhabi many decades ago, there were plenty of Arabs from elsewhere in the region - not just from the peninsula, but from Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and other countries. There were many Iranians, too, while the flow from South Asia was well under way.
There were, perhaps, a few thousand people from Britain, a few hundred from the rest of Europe, the Americas and Australia, but much of the rest of the world was effectively unrepresented.
Over the years, not only have the numbers of some nationalities increased rapidly, but others have appeared for the first time, often growing dramatically in numbers. Today, officials say, there are more than 200 nationalities living and working in the Emirates. There has also been a change in the nature of the jobs they perform.
Back in the 1970s, most Filipinos here worked in the hospitality industry, in retail or in domestic service.
Their numbers have increased sharply, to somewhere near half a million. Many still work in those industries, but others work as dentists, oilfield engineers, traders and businessmen and women.
When I arrived, people from mainland China were so few and far between that one family which ran a furniture shop in Abu Dhabi stood out. Now, thanks to the liberalisation of China's economy and the growth of its trade with the UAE, there are more than half a million in a wide range of professions.
In the early 1970s, the UAE did not have diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union and economic ties were at a low level. The establishment of relations, late in that decade, and then the collapse of the Soviet Union prompted a growth in economic ties, notably with the newly-independent countries of Central Asia. A new wave of migrants followed, not just coming to seek work here, but also to promote bilateral trade and investment.
Others nationalities are still arriving. Over the last year or so, I have run across two for the first time.
One was a woman from Myanmar, a classic economic migrant, who had taken a job as a supermarket cashier.
The other was a Liberian who came "on spec", to see if there were any opportunities to buy goods here to sell at home. He's just finishing a second trip and is well on the way to becoming self-financing.
As more nationalities identify the economic opportunities here, so more will come, will increase the diversity of the population even further. All those expatriate communities have contributed in various ways to the building of the UAE today - and to the expansion of its economic relations with the rest of the world.
Perhaps the most difficult task is to determine the value of those contributions and to decide whether the long-term effects include negative as well as positive factors.
The social consequences of a generation of children raised by expatriate nannies are often discussed. Of more concern, perhaps, should be the impact of political ideas.
There's an unwritten rule here that expatriates should not transport political arguments from home to the UAE arena in any way that could disturb the much-envied social harmony of the UAE.
It's of little concern if expatriates argue about the varying merits of British, American or Filipino political parties. They have no relevance here.
That doesn't apply, though, to supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood or of Hizbollah or to those who seek to promote the obscurantist views of the Taliban.
That unwritten rule has served the country well - and the expatriate communities too. It's time, perhaps, to remember that it's still relevant.
Peter Hellyer is a consultant specialising in the UAE's history and culture
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Rashford 36')
Liverpool 1 (Lallana 84')
Man of the match: Marcus Rashford (Manchester United)
Specs
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At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Veil (Object Lessons)
Rafia Zakaria
Bloomsbury Academic
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
