Here’s an answer for those who question the potential of the peace process which recently began on the Korean peninsula: the Berlin Wall fell. The Soviet Union collapsed. Apartheid ended. Myanmar’s generals allowed free elections in 2015, which lessened the military junta’s half-century of oppressive power. More recently, Angola, Gambia and Zimbabwe’s long-serving strongmen agreed to their peaceful removal from office rather than plunge their countries into violent turmoil. Last month, Armenia achieved a people’s revolution in forcing its long-time leader to respect a previous public promise to step down in 2018. And Northern Ireland has been bound by a peace agreement for more than 20 years, thereby ending one of Europe’s longest and seemingly most intractable conflicts.
Startling change has often been an unpredictable constant in world affairs. It is startling because it is deemed practically impossible before it happens. Turkish-American academic Timur Kuran, who has written copiously on the general theory of “revolutionary surprises”, notes that when political changes of epochal significance occur, they tend to leave social scientists just as dumbfounded as the participants and observers. The academics, like everyone else, have little “predictive success in practice”, writes Kuran. No one believes the change will come to pass so the possibility is so heavily discounted as to be reduced to nought.
This applies to popular revolutions just as much as convulsive change to a political or social system. Saudi Arabia’s current fast-paced cultural, social and economic reforms are a case in point. No one saw them coming and no one would have predicted them, say in 2015.
In a 1995 paper titled The Inevitability of Future Revolutionary Surprises, Kuran stated: "The French, Russian and Iranian revolutions are only three of the successful revolts that stunned their leaders, participants, victims and observers." Indeed, one of the central points of Alexis de Tocqueville's masterpiece The Old Regime and the French Revolution is that no one foresaw the fall of the French monarchy. Kuran added: "Just weeks before the Russian Revolution of February 1917, Lenin was suggesting that Russia's great explosion lay in the distant future. Even the Ayatollah [Ali] Khamenei was stunned by the events that propelled him to power. Although in public he was insisting that the shah's regime was on the brink of collapse, to his close associates he was confiding serious reservations until about two weeks before his triumphant return to Tehran."
Could a great surprise, an epochal change, be in the works on the Korean peninsula?
As before, the naysayers are vocal and have good arguments. They rest on the history of North Korea’s failure to honour previous denuclearisation agreements, specifically, in 1992, 1994, 2005 and 2012.
As US National Security Adviser John Bolton dispiritingly told American television audiences last Sunday: "We've been to this place before". It was a reference to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's new, smiley public persona as a man of peace and his stated aim of working towards a nuclear-free region.
In this instance, Mr Bolton can hardly be accused of gross misstatements and rank falsehoods. But as a hawkish proponent of untrammelled American power, can Mr Bolton legitimately be said to suffer from an acute failure of imagination? Could the naysayers be rejecting even the possibility of an acceptable compromise?
There is some evidence – and it goes back long before Donald Trump ran for president – that Mr Kim was contemplating change. Barely noticed by all but the most dedicated North Korea-watchers, Mr Kim executed a pivot of sorts five years ago. Unlike his late father Kim Jong-il, who ruled North Korea from 1994 to 2011, Mr Kim has been making small but significant changes to the dictators’ playbook. Whereas Kim Jong-il ruled by the songun paradigm, or “military first" politics, his son pivoted to the byungjin policy in 2013. Byungjin means “parallel development of nuclear weapons and the economy”.
By all accounts, he has achieved the first. As of November last year, North Korea has significant nuclear capability. Its Hwasong-15, the furthest-reaching intercontinental ballistic missile possessed by Pyongyang, could theoretically travel about 13,000km, which puts almost every point on the world map within range, except for South America and Antarctica. North Korea also claims it can mount miniaturised nuclear warheads on its missiles but there is no independent verification of this boast.
Even so, Mr Kim leads a nuclear-capable country. It would not be that surprising if a millennial leader dreams of embarking on another trajectory too – towards economic growth – while making the trade-offs required and maintaining some security provisions.
This would go some way towards explaining Mr Kim's new foreign policy, one that better addresses his strategic interests at this point of time.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
If you go...
Fly from Dubai or Abu Dhabi to Chiang Mai in Thailand, via Bangkok, before taking a five-hour bus ride across the Laos border to Huay Xai. The land border crossing at Huay Xai is a well-trodden route, meaning entry is swift, though travellers should be aware of visa requirements for both countries.
Flights from Dubai start at Dh4,000 return with Emirates, while Etihad flights from Abu Dhabi start at Dh2,000. Local buses can be booked in Chiang Mai from around Dh50
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The biog
Place of birth: Kalba
Family: Mother of eight children and has 10 grandchildren
Favourite traditional dish: Al Harees, a slow cooked porridge-like dish made from boiled cracked or coarsely ground wheat mixed with meat or chicken
Favourite book: My early life by Sheikh Dr Sultan bin Muhammad Al Qasimi, the Ruler of Sharjah
Favourite quote: By Sheikh Zayed, the UAE's Founding Father, “Those who have no past will have no present or future.”
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Hydrogen: Market potential
Hydrogen has an estimated $11 trillion market potential, according to Bank of America Securities and is expected to generate $2.5tn in direct revenues and $11tn of indirect infrastructure by 2050 as its production increases six-fold.
"We believe we are reaching the point of harnessing the element that comprises 90 per cent of the universe, effectively and economically,” the bank said in a recent report.
Falling costs of renewable energy and electrolysers used in green hydrogen production is one of the main catalysts for the increasingly bullish sentiment over the element.
The cost of electrolysers used in green hydrogen production has halved over the last five years and will fall to 60 to 90 per cent by the end of the decade, acceding to Haim Israel, equity strategist at Merrill Lynch. A global focus on decarbonisation and sustainability is also a big driver in its development.
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
More coverage from the Future Forum
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
UAE squad
Men's draw: Victor Scvortov and Khalifa Al Hosani, (both 73 kilograms), Sergiu Toma and Mihail Marchitan (90kg), Ivan Remarenco (100kg), Ahmed Al Naqbi (60kg), Musabah Al Shamsi and Ahmed Al Hosani (66kg)
Women’s draw: Maitha Al Neyadi (57kg)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alaan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Parthi%20Duraisamy%20and%20Karun%20Kurien%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%247%20million%20raised%20in%20total%20%E2%80%94%20%242.5%20million%20in%20a%20seed%20round%20and%20%244.5%20million%20in%20a%20pre-series%20A%20round%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStage%206%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Tim%20Merlier%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%20%E2%80%93%203hrs%2041min%2012sec.%3Cbr%3E2.%20Sam%20Bennett%20(GBR)%20Bora%20%E2%80%93%20Hansgrohe%20%E2%80%93%20ST%3Cbr%3E3.%20Dylan%20Groenewegen%20(NED)%20Team%20Jayco%20Alula%20%E2%80%93%20ST%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EGeneral%20classification%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lucas%20Plapp%20(AUS)%20Ineos%20Grenaders%20%E2%80%93%209sec%3Cbr%3E3.%20Pello%20Bilbao%20(ESP)%20Bahrain%20Victorious%20%E2%80%93%2013sec%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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