About 60 million Americans have already voted in this year’s presidential election, and forecasters predict that the 2020 turnout may be the highest in more than a century.
As is the case in most US elections, the majority of voters are making their decisions based on domestic concerns rather than foreign policy considerations.
The popular perception that the President Donald Trump’s administration has mishandled its response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Two thirds of Americans disapprove of his administration’s management of the crisis, and the economic fallout looms large over the polls.
The overwhelming emphasis on domestic issues in the election campaign is also reflective of the reality that, regardless of the outcome on November 3 (or at some point thereafter), the next administration will probably be absorbed in addressing the many domestic challenges facing the country. Foreign relations are likely to take a back seat, at least for the first two years of the new administration.
Aside from the exchange of charges that the other candidate is "soft on China", foreign policy differences have rarely come up in the recent campaigns. Trump campaign efforts to highlight the recent success of the Abraham Accord have registered primarily with the President's loyal, evangelical Christian voting bloc and thus have not altered the campaign dynamics.
Despite the low incidence of debate over foreign policy in general and on US relations in the Middle East in particular, the outcome of the 2020 election will undoubtedly be significant for the region. Not everything will change, of course.
Regardless of whether we’re dealing with a first term for Joe Biden or a second one for Mr Trump, the US national security establishment will continue to emphasise rising great power competition, particularly with China. This will likely mean, in my view, that the US will increase its presence in East Asia and seek opportunities to reduce its military commitments in the Gulf region.
The visit this week of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defence Secretary Mark Esper to New Delhi is indicative of the Trump administration’s intention to strengthen its ring of alliances around China. A Biden administration may seek to lessen the risk of armed conflict with China, but it will undoubtedly share Mr Trump’s perspective that China will be the paramount challenger to US global interests going forward.
The transition away from security preoccupations in the Middle East will depend on managing events with Iran, as well as ISIS and other violent extremist groups. Both Mr Trump and Mr Biden have said they want to re-open negotiations with Iran after the election, although the terms of that engagement will certainly differ. Mr Trump has suggested that, should he win a second term, Tehran will be forced to seek terms consistent with the demands from Washington in its maximum-pressure campaign.
The Biden team has indicated that they would re-start negotiations with Iran initially based on former president Barack Obama's original nuclear deal, albeit with some adjustments that further constrain Iran's nuclear programme. Engagement with Iran on the other issues of concern, from ballistic missiles to its intervention in the internal affairs of its neighbours, will presumably follow in co-ordination with Washington's European allies.
The Biden camp’s stance on Syria is distinct not only from the muddled Trump administration approach but from Mr Obama’s policy as well. Senior Biden advisors have acknowledged that the Obama policy failed to achieve the desired political resolution.
Moreover, its half-hearted support for the moderate opposition to Bashar Al Assad’s regime opened the door both to the rise of extremism as well as to Russian and Iranian intervention.
They’ve pledged to re-engage on Syria, pressing again for a diplomatic resolution to the civil conflict while maintaining a limited US special operations capability to confront ISIS.
How much a Biden administration would be willing to invest in achieving a desirable outcome in Syria, and whether the US can counter-balance Russian, Iranian and Turkish interests there, remains unclear.
Despite its effort to differentiate its position on Syria from the Obama administration approach, in many other regards a Biden administration Middle East policy is likely to reflect the US foreign policy consensus that existed prior to Donald Trump’s election.
While Mr Biden is a staunch supporter of Israel and the campaign has welcomed the Abraham Accord, a Biden presidency is likely to walk back a number of the Trump administration’s positions on the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. This would include abandoning the Trump-backed, so-called “Deal of the Century” initiative in favour of pressing the two sides to resume negotiations.
The Biden campaign has expressed particular concern about some of Saudi Arabia’s domestic policies as well as its activities in Yemen. Relations with the current administration in Egypt are likely to be another concern for Mr Biden.
Similarly, the Biden team has also been clear that they would reassert long-standing US positions on human rights and civil liberties issues in foreign policy considerations.
America’s relations with its key friends and partners in the Middle East have evolved over the past decade.
Governments in the region have become more independent from Washington and more assertive in pressing their own policy preferences.
Great power relationships have also become more balanced as Russia’s and China’s presence in the region has expanded. The Trump administration has accommodated those changes by ceding policy decisions to its regional allies.
A Biden administration will likely be more assertive in identifying core US goals and objectives. But it, too, will need to take into account the changes in relationships, and find ways of achieving a balance when the interests of the parties are inconsistent.
Gerald Feierstein is senior vice president at the Middle East Institute and former US ambassador to Yemen
Zakat definitions
Zakat: an Arabic word meaning ‘to cleanse’ or ‘purification’.
Nisab: the minimum amount that a Muslim must have before being obliged to pay zakat. Traditionally, the nisab threshold was 87.48 grams of gold, or 612.36 grams of silver. The monetary value of the nisab therefore varies by current prices and currencies.
Zakat Al Mal: the ‘cleansing’ of wealth, as one of the five pillars of Islam; a spiritual duty for all Muslims meeting the ‘nisab’ wealth criteria in a lunar year, to pay 2.5 per cent of their wealth in alms to the deserving and needy.
Zakat Al Fitr: a donation to charity given during Ramadan, before Eid Al Fitr, in the form of food. Every adult Muslim who possesses food in excess of the needs of themselves and their family must pay two qadahs (an old measure just over 2 kilograms) of flour, wheat, barley or rice from each person in a household, as a minimum.
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
PAKISTAN SQUAD
Abid Ali, Fakhar Zaman, Imam-ul-Haq, Shan Masood, Azhar Ali (test captain), Babar Azam (T20 captain), Asad Shafiq, Fawad Alam, Haider Ali, Iftikhar Ahmad, Khushdil Shah, Mohammad Hafeez, Shoaib Malik, Mohammad Rizwan (wicketkeeper), Sarfaraz Ahmed (wicketkeeper), Faheem Ashraf, Haris Rauf, Imran Khan, Mohammad Abbas, Mohammad Hasnain, Naseem Shah, Shaheen Afridi, Sohail Khan, Usman Shinwari, Wahab Riaz, Imad Wasim, Kashif Bhatti, Shadab Khan and Yasir Shah.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Innotech Profile
Date started: 2013
Founder/CEO: Othman Al Mandhari
Based: Muscat, Oman
Sector: Additive manufacturing, 3D printing technologies
Size: 15 full-time employees
Stage: Seed stage and seeking Series A round of financing
Investors: Oman Technology Fund from 2017 to 2019, exited through an agreement with a new investor to secure new funding that it under negotiation right now.
Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster with a decades-long career in TV. He has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others. Karam is also the founder of Takreem.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
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match info
Athletic Bilbao 1 (Muniain 37')
Atletico Madrid 1 (Costa 39')
Man of the match Iker Muniain (Athletic Bilbao)
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Six things you need to know about UAE Women’s Special Olympics football team
Several girls started playing football at age four
They describe sport as their passion
The girls don’t dwell on their condition
They just say they may need to work a little harder than others
When not in training, they play football with their brothers and sisters
The girls want to inspire others to join the UAE Special Olympics teams
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
LAST-16 EUROPA LEAGUE FIXTURES
Wednesday (Kick-offs UAE)
FC Copenhagen (0) v Istanbul Basaksehir (1) 8.55pm
Shakhtar Donetsk (2) v Wolfsburg (1) 8.55pm
Inter Milan v Getafe (one leg only) 11pm
Manchester United (5) v LASK (0) 11pm
Thursday
Bayer Leverkusen (3) v Rangers (1) 8.55pm
Sevilla v Roma (one leg only) 8.55pm
FC Basel (3) v Eintracht Frankfurt (0) 11pm
Wolves (1) Olympiakos (1) 11pm
Dubai World Cup factbox
Most wins by a trainer: Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor(9)
Most wins by a jockey: Jerry Bailey(4)
Most wins by an owner: Godolphin(9)
Most wins by a horse: Godolphin’s Thunder Snow(2)
THE BIO
Bio Box
Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul
Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Liverpool 4-1 Shrewsbury
Liverpool
Gordon (34'), Fabinho (44' pen, 90' 3), Firmino (78')
Shrewsbury
Udoh (27'minutes)
Man of the Match: Kaide Gordon (Liverpool)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Results
Stage 4
1. Dylan Groenewegen (NED) Jumbo-Visma 04:16:13
2. Gaviria (COL) UAE Team Emirates
3. Pascal Ackermann (GER) Bora-Hansgrohe
4. Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep
5. Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal
General Classification:
1. Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 16:46:15
2. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:07
3. Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana Pro Team 0:01:35
4. David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:01:40
5. Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
