Spring is already in the air in Jakarta. This is not a result of the balmy temperatures the city enjoys at this time of year, but because the entire focus of the political class is on the next election, to be held in April 2019. Everything, from the president’s recent referencing of a popular television show to his response to Australia's controversial comments on Jerusalem, is being viewed through the lens of the forthcoming vote.
For Indonesia, of course, next year's election will be pivotal. When he was elected in 2014, Joko Widodo became the first Indonesian leader since independence not to come from a military background. But the nation's politics also matter far beyond its shores. As the biggest Muslim country, and a democracy with a syncretic Islamic culture, the way it manages the demands and pressures of its diverse communities provides lessons for others.
Mr Widodo remains broadly popular as president and is expected to win next year. The selection of his vice-presidential running mate has been seen for months as a barometer of where the country's politics are heading. Mr Widodo’s choice, announced in August, of a controversial religious cleric, who was instrumental in bringing down one of the favourite contenders for the position, has been viewed as a courting of the religious vote and a sign of a conservative turn in the corridors of power. As always, though, the reality is somewhat more complicated.
Who Mr Widodo's running mate would turn out to be has been a cause of heated debate, public protest and legal procedures for at least two years. The current vice-president, Jusuf Kalla, had already served one term in the 2000s. However, his supporters fought a court battle to argue that the Indonesian constitution’s bar on anyone serving more than two terms in office only applied to terms that have run consecutively. This summer, the petition was struck down and Mr Kalla graciously agreed to step aside.
That, however, was something of a sideshow. Mr Widodo’s running mate was long expected to be the former governor of Jakarta, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, popularly known as Ahok. Ahok is a Christian from the Chinese minority, who served as deputy to Mr Widodo when he was governor of the capital. A presidential ticket with both of them on it would have been seen as proof of Indonesia's pluralism.
In 2016, however, Ahok was accused of blasphemy for appearing to criticise a verse from the Quran. He apologised, insisting his words had been taken out of context and that he was only criticising the way the verse was used by his opponents. Regardless, the damage was done, and those same opponents, who had previously failed to generate much ill will against him, brought first tens and then hundreds of thousands on to the streets. A formal blasphemy charge followed and in 2017 Ahok was jailed for two years. It was reported last week that he will be released in January, too late for a political rehabilitation before the election.
Now comes the twist. One of the figures who did the most to attack Ahok was Ma'ruf Amin, the head of the Indonesia Ulema Council (MUI), the country's highest clerical authority – and the man Mr Widodo has just picked as his running mate.
Mr Amin was head of the MUI in 2016, when it issued a fatwa stating that Ahok was a blasphemer. That decision marked the moment when the protests against Ahok, which had previously been confined to a religious fringe, entered the mainstream.
Mr Widodo's decision to run alongside Mr Amin has naturally been seen as evidence of a likely increase in the influence of religious groups. However, Mr Widodo is widely disliked among religious conservatives and those nostalgic for the perceived stability of the Suharto era, which lasted from 1968 to 1998. Next year, Mr Widodo's opponent will be Prabowo Subianto, a former commander in the Indonesian army often preferred by religious conservatives.
A tendency in favour of mixing faith and politics is on the rise among Indonesians. However, while groups such as the 212 Movement – a coalition of hardline religious organisations that led the charge against Ahok – can feel the wind in their sails, there is no stable, organised Islamist faction. Still, candidates backed by conservative groups did well in local elections this year. By choosing Mr Amin, Mr Widodo may be hoping to split the conservative vote and diminish the of such groups.
Mr Amin is, after all, both part of the religious establishment and a man who has spent years working within the current political system. He may espouse occasionally conservative positions – such as speaking in favour of a greater role for sharia law – but Mr Widodo may see that as a price worth paying in order to sideline more problematic elements.
Torn between a former military commander on one side and a vice-presidential candidate who is a respected cleric on the other, conservative voters will likely split, weakening their power over the next president. By half-turning towards religious conservatives before the election, Mr Widodo may be preparing to swiftly distance himself from them after it.
Francesco Totti's bio
Born September 27, 1976
Position Attacking midifelder
Clubs played for (1) - Roma
Total seasons 24
First season 1992/93
Last season 2016/17
Appearances 786
Goals 307
Titles (5) - Serie A 1; Italian Cup 2; Italian Supercup 2
The specs: Macan Turbo
Engine: Dual synchronous electric motors
Power: 639hp
Torque: 1,130Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Touring range: 591km
Price: From Dh412,500
On sale: Deliveries start in October
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The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
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Europe's top EV producers
- Norway (63% of cars registered in 2021)
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- United Kingdom (12%)
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Source: VCOe
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Director: Laila Abbas
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if you go
The flights Fly Dubai, Air Arabia, Emirates, Etihad, and Royal Jordanian all offer direct, three-and-a-half-hour flights from the UAE to the Jordanian capital Amman. Alternatively, from June Fly Dubai will offer a new direct service from Dubai to Aqaba in the south of the country. See the airlines’ respective sites for varying prices or search on reliable price-comparison site Skyscanner.
The trip
Jamie Lafferty was a guest of the Jordan Tourist Board. For more information on adventure tourism in Jordan see Visit Jordan. A number of new and established tour companies offer the chance to go caving, rock-climbing, canyoning, and mountaineering in Jordan. Prices vary depending on how many activities you want to do and how many days you plan to stay in the country. Among the leaders are Terhaal, who offer a two-day canyoning trip from Dh845 per person. If you really want to push your limits, contact the Stronger Team. For a more trek-focused trip, KE Adventure offers an eight-day trip from Dh5,300 per person.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
