The practice of economic forecasting has, in recent weeks, become a race to the bottom. The increasingly grim readings of the tea leaves for global growth are understandable as restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic put a sudden stop on mobility and commercial activity, while hundreds of millions find themselves out of work and the existence of tens of thousands of businesses comes under threat.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its global outlook compared to two months ago, saying it now expects GDP will shrink by 4.9 per cent this year. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, world output is forecast to plummet 7.6 per cent this year in the absence of a Covid-19 vaccine. Even with a vaccine, the OECD expects it to fall by 6 per cent. The World Bank projects a contraction of 5.2 per cent in 2020, a sharp downward revision from January. And Bloomberg analysts say output will shrink 4.7 per cent in the best case. In Bloomberg's more pessimistic view, global GDP contracts 6.7 per cent.
The consensus is dire.
Historically, however, even without the wild card of a pandemic, economic forecasts have a mixed track record. According to a Bloomberg analysis of more than 3,200 forecasts published each spring since 1999 by the IMF, only in 6 per cent of cases were they accurate. The IMF was shown to have been in almost equal measures too optimistic and pessimistic at other times.
Last week, the IMF downgraded its global outlook compared to two months ago, saying it now expects GDP will shrink by 4.9 per cent this year. IMF
Oxford University’s Professor David Hendry, a leading specialist in the field of economic forecasting, wrote in 2017 that “the repeated inaccuracy of economic forecasts has led to that activity becoming the butt of many jokes, as well as questions by [Britain’s] Queen Elizabeth as to why no-one foresaw the" the last financial crisis.
“The usual assumption in macroeconomic analyses is that the outcome expected today for tomorrow will be accurate, as indeed it would be if shifts did not happen. But they do,” he wrote.
That is not to undermine how bad the situation is as described by the IMF, World Bank and other global bodies. It is rather to point out that economic forecasting is at the best of times of limited usefulness when planning for the future. There are currently even more significant challenges facing anyone trying to accurately project what is going to happen. Policy is changing week-to-week, data has never been more unreliable and dependent on localities, and economists now must also factor in the science at work behind the response to the public health crisis.
It is near impossible to track such a fast-moving target. Added to that is the impact of actions already being taken to mitigate the economic pain.
The IMF itself has been deploying about $100 billion in emergency funding to 72 countries during the pandemic. Governments across the world have stepped into the fray with pledges to carry out historic levels of spending, too. We do not yet know how this will alter the landscape.
Also, when every major institution is in agreement on what the outlook will be, my natural reaction is to wonder if there may be some psychology at work given the extreme levels of uncertainty in play.
It worries me, too, when there are no respected voices out there offering a contrarian view. It tells me that there is too much fear in the air for any analyses to be wholly relied upon. The safest option for any analyst right now worried about their credibility, when there are so many gaps in our knowledge and too many questions remain about the virus, is to not be an outlier.
This is true both in terms of the downside and upside. While collectively there is an expectation of a significant rebound in growth next year, despite the risk of second waves of the virus hitting, the emotional and mental impact of the crisis means that forecasting more than a few weeks ahead will likely be clouded by the prevailing sentiment on the ground.
The IMF’s chief economist Gita Gopinath has described the current situation with the global economy as very fluid. AFP
The IMF's own chief economist Gita Gopinath said last week that the situation is very fluid. "You could have better news and treatments and vaccines and improvement could be even faster. But it could also be worse if indeed the virus cannot be contained and you have second waves," she pointed out.
Given all of the above, during this crisis in particular, we have nothing to lose from ignoring the latest batch of economic forecasts and everything to gain. Better still, let us suspend them until 2021 at the earliest. Why is there any need to churn them out so frequently?
Their main purpose – to inform policy makers – cannot be realistically fulfilled when we all know that in a few months' time the forecasts will change again.
To keep producing them in the current atmosphere is unhelpful and only creates alarmist headlines, heaping unnecessary pressure on governments already grappling with the tension between the health and economic responses to the crisis.
Mustafa Alrawi is an assistant editor-in-chief at The National
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
3.30pm Jebel Ali Classic Conditions Dh300,000 1,400m
4pm Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m
4.30pm Conditions Dh250,000 1,400m
5pm Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m
5.30pm Handicap Dh85,000 1,000m
The National selections:
2pm Arch Gold
2.30pm Conclusion
3pm Al Battar
3.30pm Golden Jaguar
4pm Al Motayar
4.30pm Tapi Sioux
5pm Leadership
5.30pm Dahawi
PSA DUBAI WORLD SERIES FINALS LINE-UP
Men’s:
Mohamed El Shorbagy (EGY)
Ali Farag (EGY)
Simon Rosner (GER)
Tarek Momen (EGY)
Miguel Angel Rodriguez (COL)
Gregory Gaultier (FRA)
Karim Abdel Gawad (EGY)
Nick Matthew (ENG)
Women's:
Nour El Sherbini (EGY)
Raneem El Welily (EGY)
Nour El Tayeb (EGY)
Laura Massaro (ENG)
Joelle King (NZE)
Camille Serme (FRA)
Nouran Gohar (EGY)
Sarah-Jane Perry (ENG)
Starring: Bryan Cranston, Liev Schreiber, Ed Norton, Greta Gerwig, Bill Murray, Jeff Goldblum, Scarlett Johansson
Three stars
Zimbabwe v UAE, ODI series
All matches at the Harare Sports Club:
1st ODI, Wednesday, April 10
2nd ODI, Friday, April 12
3rd ODI, Sunday, April 14
4th ODI, Tuesday, April 16
UAE squad: Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
All matches in Bulawayo Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
Scorline
Iraq 1-0 UAE
Iraq Hussein 28’
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, Group B
Barcelona v Inter Milan
Camp Nou, Barcelona
Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
not be younger than 25 years old
not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
The five stages of early child’s play
From Dubai-based clinical psychologist Daniella Salazar:
1. Solitary Play: This is where Infants and toddlers start to play on their own without seeming to notice the people around them. This is the beginning of play.
2. Onlooker play: This occurs where the toddler enjoys watching other people play. There doesn’t necessarily need to be any effort to begin play. They are learning how to imitate behaviours from others. This type of play may also appear in children who are more shy and introverted.
3. Parallel Play: This generally starts when children begin playing side-by-side without any interaction. Even though they aren’t physically interacting they are paying attention to each other. This is the beginning of the desire to be with other children.
4. Associative Play: At around age four or five, children become more interested in each other than in toys and begin to interact more. In this stage children start asking questions and talking about the different activities they are engaging in. They realise they have similar goals in play such as building a tower or playing with cars.
5. Social Play: In this stage children are starting to socialise more. They begin to share ideas and follow certain rules in a game. They slowly learn the definition of teamwork. They get to engage in basic social skills and interests begin to lead social interactions.
Founder: Jon Richards, founder and chief executive; Samer Chebab, co-founder and chief operating officer, and Jonathan Rawlings, co-founder and chief financial officer
Based: Media City, Dubai
Sector: Financial services
Size: 120 employees
Investors: 2014: $500,000 in a seed round led by Mulverhill Associates; 2015: $3m in Series A funding led by STC Ventures (managed by Iris Capital), Wamda and Dubai Silicon Oasis Authority; 2019: $8m in Series B funding with the same investors as Series A along with Precinct Partners, Saned and Argo Ventures (the VC arm of multinational insurer Argo Group)
Chef Nobu's advice for eating sushi
“One mistake people always make is adding extra wasabi. There is no need for this, because it should already be there between the rice and the fish.
“When eating nigiri, you must dip the fish – not the rice – in soy sauce, otherwise the rice will collapse. Also, don’t use too much soy sauce or it will make you thirsty. For sushi rolls, dip a little of the rice-covered roll lightly in soy sauce and eat in one bite.
“Chopsticks are acceptable, but really, I recommend using your fingers for sushi. Do use chopsticks for sashimi, though.
“The ginger should be eaten separately as a palette cleanser and used to clear the mouth when switching between different pieces of fish.”
Results
2.30pm: Dubai Creek Tower – Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (Dirt) 1,200m; Winner: Marmara Xm, Gary Sanchez (jockey), Abdelkhir Adam (trainer)
3pm: Al Yasmeen – Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m; Winner: AS Hajez, Jesus Rosales, Khalifa Al Neyadi
3.30pm: Al Ferdous – Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m; Winner: Soukainah, Sebastien Martino, Jean-Claude Pecout
4pm: The Crown Prince Of Sharjah – Prestige (PA) Dh200,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: AF Thayer, Ray Dawson, Ernst Oertel
4.30pm: Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Cup – Handicap (TB) Dh200,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: George Villiers, Antonio Fresu, Bhupat Seemar
5pm: Palma Spring – Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Es Abu Mousa, Antonio Fresu, Abubakar Daud
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Engine: Two permanent-magnet synchronous AC motors
Transmission: two-speed
Power: 671hp
Torque: 1050Nm
Range: 450km
Price: Dh601,800
On sale: now
Director: Shady Ali
Cast: Boumi Fouad , Mohamed Tharout and Hisham Ismael
Rating: 3/5
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Manchester United v Barcelona, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Match on BeIN Sports
If you go
The flights
There are various ways of getting to the southern Serengeti in Tanzania from the UAE. The exact route and airstrip depends on your overall trip itinerary and which camp you’re staying at. Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Kilimanjaro International Airport from Dh1,350 return, including taxes; this can be followed by a short flight from Kilimanjaro to the Serengeti withCoastal Aviation from about US$700 (Dh2,500) return, including taxes. Kenya Airways, Emirates and Etihad offer flights via Nairobi or Dar es Salaam.
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
Adele: The Stories Behind The Songs
Caroline Sullivan
Carlton Books
Results
Stage Two:
1. Mark Cavendish (GBR) QuickStep-AlphaVinyl 04:20:45
2. Jasper Philipsen (BEL) Alpecin-Fenix
3. Pascal Ackermann (GER) UAE Team Emirates
4. Olav Kooij (NED) Jumbo-Visma
5. Arnaud Demare (FRA) Groupama-FDJ
General Classification:
1. Jasper Philipsen (BEL) Alpecin-Fenix 09:03:03
2. Dmitry Strakhov (RUS) Gazprom-Rusvelo 00:00:04
3. Mark Cavendish (GBR) QuickStep-AlphaVinyl 00:00:06
4. Sam Bennett (IRL) Bora-Hansgrohe 00:00:10
5. Pascal Ackermann (GER) UAE Team Emirates 00:00:12
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
There are a number of speciality art bookshops in the UAE.
In Dubai, The Lighthouse at Dubai Design District has a wonderfully curated selection of art and design books. Alserkal Avenue runs a pop-up shop at their A4 space, and host the art-book fair Fully Booked during Art Week in March. The Third Line, also in Alserkal Avenue, has a strong book-publishing arm and sells copies at its gallery. Kinokuniya, at Dubai Mall, has some good offerings within its broad selection, and you never know what you will find at the House of Prose in Jumeirah. Finally, all of Gulf Photo Plus’s photo books are available for sale at their show.
In Abu Dhabi, Louvre Abu Dhabi has a beautiful selection of catalogues and art books, and Magrudy’s – across the Emirates, but particularly at their NYU Abu Dhabi site – has a great selection in art, fiction and cultural theory.
In Sharjah, the Sharjah Art Museum sells catalogues and art books at its museum shop, and the Sharjah Art Foundation has a bookshop that offers reads on art, theory and cultural history.
RACE CARD
4pm Al Bastakiya – Listed (TB) $150,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
4.35pm Dubai City Of Gold – Group 2 (TB) $228,000 (Turf) 2,410m
5.10pm Mahab Al Shimaal – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,200m
5.45pm Burj Nahaar – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,600m
6.20pm Jebel Hatta – Group 1 (TB) $260,000 (T) 1,800m
6.55pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (TB) $390,000 (D) 2,000m
7.30pm Nad Al Sheba – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (T) 1,200m
How being social media savvy can improve your well being
Next time when procastinating online remember that you can save thousands on paying for a personal trainer and a gym membership simply by watching YouTube videos and keeping up with the latest health tips and trends.
As social media apps are becoming more and more consumed by health experts and nutritionists who are using it to awareness and encourage patients to engage in physical activity.
Elizabeth Watson, a personal trainer from Stay Fit gym in Abu Dhabi suggests that “individuals can use social media as a means of keeping fit, there are a lot of great exercises you can do and train from experts at home just by watching videos on YouTube”.
Norlyn Torrena, a clinical nutritionist from Burjeel Hospital advises her clients to be more technologically active “most of my clients are so engaged with their phones that I advise them to download applications that offer health related services”.
Torrena said that “most people believe that dieting and keeping fit is boring”.
However, by using social media apps keeping fit means that people are “modern and are kept up to date with the latest heath tips and trends”.
“It can be a guide to a healthy lifestyle and exercise if used in the correct way, so I really encourage my clients to download health applications” said Mrs Torrena.
People can also connect with each other and exchange “tips and notes, it’s extremely healthy and fun”.
How Islam's view of posthumous transplant surgery changed
Transplants from the deceased have been carried out in hospitals across the globe for decades, but in some countries in the Middle East, including the UAE, the practise was banned until relatively recently.
Opinion has been divided as to whether organ donations from a deceased person is permissible in Islam.
The body is viewed as sacred, during and after death, thus prohibiting cremation and tattoos.
One school of thought viewed the removal of organs after death as equally impermissible.
That view has largely changed, and among scholars and indeed many in society, to be seen as permissible to save another life.
