Iran’s project for hegemony is an increasingly complicated regional dilemma. The nation continues to try to expand its footprint in the Middle East. Its leaders remain undeterred, despite pressure from other countries. This impasse threatens the security and stability of the region, particularly in the Gulf. The past four decades have taught us that if we do not break this pattern, Iran will continue to be a threat not just to its neighbours, but to the world as a whole.
All political, social and economic trends indicate an increasingly uncertain future if the international community fails to make Iran behave like a normal state. Fuelling this worrying reality are a number of complex internal dynamics and political aspirations within Tehran.
The Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) was recent history’s most significant effort to deal with the challenge posed by the country. It sought specifically to tame the nation’s nuclear ambitions. It did not, however, have anything to say about the other nefarious regional activities that the regime sponsors. Subsequently, former US president Donald Trump broke western orthodoxy with his “maximum pressure” campaign. This achieved some results, but ultimately still failed to get Tehran back to the negotiating table.
Inaction on the Iran issue risks bringing us to a point of no return
The JCPOA’s failure might have been down to its inability to understand how Iran sees itself and the world around it, in terms of regime doctrine and interpretations of its own post-colonial history. It was also overly optimistic about Tehran’s desire to co-operate in finding constructive regional solutions. The maximum pressure campaign also failed at getting clerical leadership to drop a number of contentious policies. In addition, regional approaches to solve the Iranian impasse have not taken into account its duplicity, nor have they grasped the nature of the relations between the government and the deep-state establishment. This has made for a hollow set of proposed solutions, based solely on attempts to pacify the regime.
There is no doubt that Gulf countries are the worst affected by the ongoing stalemate. GCC nations are Iran’s closest neighbours, a country that considers the Middle East fair game in its expansionist projects, and the Gulf region as a tool to pressure the international community, especially in Washington. Our part of the world has for some time watched on with concern as other nations attempt to resolve the issue. Some worry that the errors of the Iran Nuclear Deal might be repeated, a moment in history that can only be described as one in which the GCC was marginalised. This is why Gulf countries are calling for a seat at the table in any future negotiations with Tehran. Iran’s ongoing refusal to countenance GCC participation shows its longstanding desire to drown out the group’s voice.
The Obama-era JCPOA focused on Iran's nuclear programme, neglecting other issues such as its development of ballistic missiles. AP
Some Arab countries are concerned that Washington’s seeming abandonment of Iranian issues could reduce dialogue into mere bilateral discussions between the regime and a number of regional countries, or at best local negotiations without international supervision. This would not produce effective outcomes. History shows us that Iran likes such conditions because it always has the upper hand in any purely regional or bilateral talks, not to mention the likelihood of it reneging on its commitments in the absence of binding guarantees.
The international community and GCC countries need an innovative response before we reach the point of no return. If it is still impossible to reach a comprehensive resolution, the door could open for individual regional negotiations on key issues such as Iran’s ballistic missile program and its expansionist agenda. A local initiative of this kind should be overseen by world powers including the US, the UN Security Council and other actors, to ensure that their outcomes are implemented and that they are codified in UN resolutions. They could include the use of flexible legal instruments such as snapback sanctions if Tehran reneges on its promises. For this to happen, the GCC must have a central role, as it alone is most affected by Iran’s most dangerous malign activities, including its missile program and its expansionist agenda.
The realities on the ground indicate that all stakeholders are willing to join negotiations. This means little if the same mistakes are repeated. Iran’s political system must not be simplified as it was before, in a manner that did not take into account the nature of the regime’s decision making, and the intersection between economic and political factors in the country’s policies. The method must go beyond the narrow understanding of the nation’s deep state, and instead stress the importance of improving dealings with the various influential centers of power in Tehran.
This would move beyond the inefficacy of previous years, to serious resolutions fit for the future. Combined, collaborative efforts from the GCC – with whom Iran wishes to enter into dialogue on controversial regional issues – and the international community would not allow Iran to use a dialogue to simply stall progress. Instead, it will devise a legally binding negotiation process within a specific timeframe. This could then be set in stone through UN Security Council resolutions.
Inaction will bring us to a point of no return. A strategic perspective is needed to solve this problem and the Iranian regime needs to be dealt with carefully and realistically. The GCC needs strong will and co-ordination with global partners. Welcoming Iran back into the fold will benefit the world, the region, as well as the isolated and struggling nation itself.
Dr Ebtesam Al Ketbi is the President of the Emirates Policy Center
A homegrown card payment scheme launched by the National Payments Corporation of India and backed by the Reserve Bank of India, the country’s central bank
RuPay process payments between banks and merchants for purchases made with credit or debit cards
It has grown rapidly in India and competes with global payment network firms like MasterCard and Visa.
In India, it can be used at ATMs, for online payments and variations of the card can be used to pay for bus, metro charges, road toll payments
The name blends two words rupee and payment
Some advantages of the network include lower processing fees and transaction costs
The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning.
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval.
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
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The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
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Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE) Where: Allianz Arena, Munich Live: BeIN Sports HD Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
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• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally • Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered • Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity • Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
A mark of Chatham House’s influence 100 years on since its founding, was Moscow’s formal declaration last month that it was an “undesirable organisation”.
The depth of knowledge and academics that it drew on following the Ukraine invasion had broadcast Mr Putin’s chicanery.
The institute is more used to accommodating world leaders, with Nelson Mandela, Margaret Thatcher among those helping it provide authoritative commentary on world events.
Chatham House was formally founded as the Royal Institute of International Affairs following the peace conferences of World War One. Its founder, Lionel Curtis, wanted a more scientific examination of international affairs with a transparent exchange of information and ideas.
That arena of debate and analysis was enhanced by the “Chatham House Rule” states that the contents of any meeting can be discussed outside Chatham House but no mention can be made identifying individuals who commented.
This has enabled some candid exchanges on difficult subjects allowing a greater degree of free speech from high-ranking figures.
These meetings are highly valued, so much so that ambassadors reported them in secret diplomatic cables that – when they were revealed in the Wikileaks reporting – were thus found to have broken the rule. However, most speeches are held on the record.
Its research and debate has offered fresh ideas to policymakers enabling them to more coherently address troubling issues from climate change to health and food security.
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
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HIV on the rise in the region
A 2019 United Nations special analysis on Aids reveals 37 per cent of new HIV infections in the Mena region are from people injecting drugs.
New HIV infections have also risen by 29 per cent in western Europe and Asia, and by 7 per cent in Latin America, but declined elsewhere.
Egypt has shown the highest increase in recorded cases of HIV since 2010, up by 196 per cent.
Access to HIV testing, treatment and care in the region is well below the global average.
Few statistics have been published on the number of cases in the UAE, although a UNAIDS report said 1.5 per cent of the prison population has the virus.
