After tomorrow's elections in Lebanon, there won't be a sea change in the country's political landscape. The sectarian system is deeply entrenched; the dismal electoral law it has produced has only rekindled more sectarianism and engendered selfish and opportunistic alliances and platforms. So-called civil society lost a golden opportunity after fragmenting due to a combination of narcissism, self-seeking ambition and inexperience.
Many civil society interlopers have proven to be no less corrupt than the traditional politicians they seek to displace. The ruling classes, meanwhile, have engaged in feudal-like tactics, trying to bequeath power to their children and bullying outsiders who pose a risk to the status quo.
Political parties and civil society groups have called for a large turnout in the first general election in nine years, during which parliament extended its own term three times. However, these elections are likely to make the country more sectarian, exclusive and aggressive because the electoral law, allegedly proportional, is a blueprint for sedition in a state vulnerable to the geopolitical disturbances taking place in its immediate neighbourhood.
The all-male architects of the electoral law also deliberately sidelined women, snubbing all calls to include a mandatory quota, instead choosing to prevent women from fully participating in decision-making in a country that claims to enshrine equality and modernity.
The elections in Lebanon would have been a comedy, were it not for the damage it could inflict on the democratic process there and its likely disappointing outcome by reproducing an even more sectarian and dynastical parliament.
Geopolitically, the elections are taking place amid major developments in the Israeli-Iranian dynamic in Syria, which has left the Lebanese holding their breath due to the implications for Lebanon. Indeed, Hezbollah, which is fighting alongside Iran and Bashar Al Assad in Syria, is also fighting the election in Lebanon with a view to gaining a stranglehold on parliament and the country by extension.
Hezbollah is a key part of the Israeli-Iranian dynamic and an essential component of Tehran's project in the region. It can either keep things in check or trigger an escalation that could change the rules of the game between the two sides.
In recent years, despite the belligerent rhetoric, Israel and Iran have generally kept to the truce some believe has existed between Persians and Hebrews since ancient times, the two sides having never fought a direct war. In modern times, there has been what can be described as a natural armistice between Iran and Israel and mutual hostility to Sunni Arabs.
In the past few years, Israel did not object forcefully to Iran’s intervention in Syria alongside the regime. In Lebanon, a de-facto truce has been accepted with Hezbollah through UN resolution 1701, in the aftermath of the July 2006 war.
Nearly two weeks ago, Israel conducted a major strike against Iranian military assets in Syria, signaling it will no longer tolerate the expansion of Iran’s bases there. That marked a notable departure from that truce-like dynamic that governed their direct engagement, in conjunction with the US adopting a sharper tack against Iranian expansion in the Arab region. Even the Europeans are waking up to Iran’s incursions, despite their keenness to preserve the nuclear deal under pressure from Donald Trump. Next Saturday, Mr Trump will reveal his decision regarding the deal.
Recall that the nuclear deal was signed by his predecessor Barack Obama with Iran, opening a new chapter in the US relationship with the mullah regime that has reigned in Tehran since 1979. This shook the foundations of the strategic US relationship with the Arab Gulf nations and Egypt, which Mr Obama sought to substitute with new and improved relations with Tehran.
Mr Trump has instead resolved to reset the traditional alliance with the Arab countries and end the policy of appeasement of Iran.
These shifts will undoubtedly have implications for the Iranian project in the Arab region, from Yemen and Iraq to Syria and Lebanon.
Either Iran will get the message that the US honeymoon under Mr Obama is over, that the time has come to rein in the Revolutionary Guard Corps. Or it will decide that its project for regional domination is too precious to be sacrificed.
The first path, to reform, de-escalate and repair relations with the Arab world, would spare it from looming sanctions that would drain its economy and stir up internal unrest.
The second path, meanwhile, to wager on Mr Trump backing down and on European powers refusing to endorse new sanctions, brings many risks for Iran. But any reading of Mr Trump’s policy as empty threats would be mistaken. He might not tear apart the deal but if he sticks to it, it would result in an implicit agreement with European signatories on new strict sanctions on Tehran designed to address the flaws in the agreement and curb Iran’s expansionism.
Either way, this and the Israeli decision to contain Iran’s military presence in Syria will have implications for Lebanon and Hezbollah. The Lebanese no doubt understand this ahead of their elections. However, the dismal electoral law drafted by powerful bosses to undermine democracy and distract people from real issues through sectarian mobilisation, by cementing sectarianism and corruption, could have a heavy price and bring risks no less serious than the geopolitical ones looming over the country.
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
The%20specs
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE BIO
Family: I have three siblings, one older brother (age 25) and two younger sisters, 20 and 13
Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier
Favourite place to travel to: Any walkable city. I also love nature and wildlife
What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents.
Favorite place to go in the UAE: A quiet beach.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
RESULTS: 2018 WORLD CUP QUALIFYING - EUROPE
Albania 0 Italy 1
Finland 2 Turkey 2
Macedonia 4 Liechtenstein
Iceland 2 Kosovo 0
Israel 0 Spain 1
Moldova 0 Austria 1
Serbia 1 Georgia 0
Ukraine 0 Croatia 2
Wales 0 Ireland 1
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Five personal finance podcasts from The National
To help you get started, tune into these Pocketful of Dirham episodes
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Balance is essential to happiness, health and wealth
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What is a portfolio stress test?
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What are NFTs and why are auction houses interested?
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How gamers are getting rich by earning cryptocurrencies
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Should you buy or rent a home in the UAE?
The bio
Favourite book: Kane and Abel by Jeffrey Archer
Favourite quote: “The world makes way for the man who knows where he is going.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson, American essayist
Favourite Authors: Arab poet Abu At-Tayyib Al-Mutanabbi
Favourite Emirati food: Luqaimat, a deep-fried dough soaked in date syrup
Hobbies: Reading and drawing
HAEMOGLOBIN DISORDERS EXPLAINED
Thalassaemia is part of a family of genetic conditions affecting the blood known as haemoglobin disorders.
Haemoglobin is a substance in the red blood cells that carries oxygen and a lack of it triggers anemia, leaving patients very weak, short of breath and pale.
The most severe type of the condition is typically inherited when both parents are carriers. Those patients often require regular blood transfusions - about 450 of the UAE's 2,000 thalassaemia patients - though frequent transfusions can lead to too much iron in the body and heart and liver problems.
The condition mainly affects people of Mediterranean, South Asian, South-East Asian and Middle Eastern origin. Saudi Arabia recorded 45,892 cases of carriers between 2004 and 2014.
A World Health Organisation study estimated that globally there are at least 950,000 'new carrier couples' every year and annually there are 1.33 million at-risk pregnancies.
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
