It is tempting to say that there is a Trump-shaped hole in the current map of global geopolitics – the leadership void he leaves thanks to the US president's inexperience, temperament, indolence and, in a few rare cases, strongly held beliefs.
But that would be misleading. It would make the mistake of taking Donald Trump out of context. Because the hole in the map is not Trump-shaped, it is America-shaped.
Someday, when history looks back on this era to describe America's retreat and its withdrawal from its historical leadership position, the actions and policies that brought it about will have to be described as those of George Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump. Mr Bush's overreach and the horrors of his failed war in Iraq, Mr Obama's hyper-cautiousness and indecision and Mr Trump's compounding of Mr Obama's errors, thanks to his nationalism and isolationism, together made that hole as big and as consequential as it is today.
Leaders around the world are now left to wonder what comes next. What if Mr Trump continues his policies for another two or even six years? What if he is forced from office due to the growing maelstrom of scandals that swirl around him? What if he is replaced by his Vice President Mike Pence? What if a Democrat takes the reins of the world’s most powerful nation? Will it be a voice from the left that could compound the Bush-Obama-Trump policies of the past 17 years with further reactions against the perceived threats of globalisation? Or will it be a move towards a more traditional foreign policy? Will Republicans re-embrace the aggressive policies of the neo-conservatives and take up conflicts against Iran and North Korea and perhaps, someday, even China?
Such questions are natural. And it is equally natural to assume that the answers lie in combing over a list of candidates and trying to gauge the political winds that blow in the US. But there are deeper changes afoot in the country that will have lasting consequences – those that might already be evident in the behaviour and policies of the past two decades.
A smart commentator, Norman Ornstein, of the American Enterprise Institute, recently tweeted a datapoint he says he regularly cites: “By 2040 or so, 70 per cent of Americans will live in 15 states. Meaning 30 per cent will choose 70 senators. And the 30 per cent will be older, whiter, more rural, more male, than the 70 per cent.”
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Read more from David Rothkopf:
Cyber warfare: The dawn of a new era for which we are thoroughly ill-prepared
Great civilisations are built on the legacy of thought leaders, not warriors
We are witnessing the death throes of the US as the dominant power of the free world
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The data comes from a study by the Weldon Cooper Centre for Public Service at the University of Virginia. Their study notes that within about 20 years, roughly half the US population will live in just eight states as a result of urbanisation. Those states are concentrated on the American coasts. They are where the country’s most diverse and most liberal populations will be found.
It is a fact of American politics, as in many countries, that when people live in diverse communities they are more tolerant and more open to different ideas and cultures. Rural or less populated, more homogeneous populations tend to be more cautious about outsiders, more resistant to change and consequently more nationalistic and more isolationist.
Mr Ornstein uses the data point to suggest that America is approaching a crisis, as power is increasingly concentrated in the hands of the country’s more conservative “red state” interior. This concentration allowed Mr Trump to win the 2016 election, even though he had three million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton because the founders of the US – in order to protect the rights of less populated agricultural states – gave them advantages in representation in the Senate and the electoral college.
But the disproportionate power these states have will only grow in the years ahead, thanks to the trends cited by Mr Ornstein and the University of Virginia study.
Why should people living on the other side of the world care if conservative Iowa, Kansas or Nebraska has more power in the US relative to more internationalist parts of the country? Because this trend will determine how the world's most powerful country for the forseeable future will act in the world. And right now, it seems fair to predict that the recent retreat of the US – whether temporarily reversed in the next few years or not – is likely to continue and perhaps deepen over the next several decades, unless something happens to force a mindset shift.
That is why the machinations of those who are filling the US void – especially China but also the EU and regional actors taking advantage of regional openings – are so important to watch.
They might not represent momentary adjustments but rather long-lasting and significant realignments. While the US will long have the power to make a decisive difference when and where it decides to act, it looks very likely that for the remainder of the lives of most of those in power around the world today, that America-shaped hole will remain.
And the competition to fill it is likely to determine many of the most important events of the era to come.
David Rothkopf is CEO of The Rothkopf Group, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of The Great Questions of Tomorrow
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Specs – Taycan 4S
Engine: Electric
Transmission: 2-speed auto
Power: 571bhp
Torque: 650Nm
Price: Dh431,800
Specs – Panamera
Engine: 3-litre V6 with 100kW electric motor
Transmission: 2-speed auto
Power: 455bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: from Dh431,800
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 650hp at 6,750rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,500-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 11.12L/100km
Price: From Dh796,600
On sale: now
How Beautiful this world is!
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Without Remorse
Directed by: Stefano Sollima
Starring: Michael B Jordan
4/5
Innotech Profile
Date started: 2013
Founder/CEO: Othman Al Mandhari
Based: Muscat, Oman
Sector: Additive manufacturing, 3D printing technologies
Size: 15 full-time employees
Stage: Seed stage and seeking Series A round of financing
Investors: Oman Technology Fund from 2017 to 2019, exited through an agreement with a new investor to secure new funding that it under negotiation right now.
Armies of Sand
By Kenneth Pollack (Oxford University Press)
UAE WARRIORS RESULTS
Featherweight
Azouz Anwar (EGY) beat Marcelo Pontes (BRA)
TKO round 2
Catchweight 90kg
Moustafa Rashid Nada (KSA) beat Imad Al Howayeck (LEB)
Split points decision
Welterweight
Gimbat Ismailov (RUS) beat Mohammed Al Khatib (JOR)
TKO round 1
Flyweight (women)
Lucie Bertaud (FRA) beat Kelig Pinson (BEL)
Unanimous points decision
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROU) beat Regelo Enumerables Jr (PHI)
TKO round 1
Catchweight 100kg
Marc Vleiger (NED) beat Mohamed Ali (EGY)
Rear neck choke round 1
Featherweight
James Bishop (NZ) beat Mark Valerio (PHI)
TKO round 2
Welterweight
Abdelghani Saber (EGY) beat Gerson Carvalho (BRA)
TKO round 1
Middleweight
Bakhtiyar Abbasov (AZE) beat Igor Litoshik (BLR)
Unanimous points decision
Bantamweight
Fabio Mello (BRA) beat Mark Alcoba (PHI)
Unanimous points decision
Welterweight
Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Magomedsultan Magomedsultanov (RUS)
TKO round 1
Bantamweight
Trent Girdham (AUS) beat Jayson Margallo (PHI)
TKO round 3
Lightweight
Usman Nurmagomedov (RUS) beat Roman Golovinov (UKR)
TKO round 1
Middleweight
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) beat Steve Kennedy (AUS)
Submission round 2
Lightweight
Dan Moret (USA) v Anton Kuivanen (FIN)
TKO round 2
MATCH INFO
Quarter-finals
Saturday (all times UAE)
England v Australia, 11.15am
New Zealand v Ireland, 2.15pm
Sunday
Wales v France, 11.15am
Japan v South Africa, 2.15pm
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
Section 375
Cast: Akshaye Khanna, Richa Chadha, Meera Chopra & Rahul Bhat
Director: Ajay Bahl
Producers: Kumar Mangat Pathak, Abhishek Pathak & SCIPL
Rating: 3.5/5
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Managing the separation process
- Choose your nursery carefully in the first place
- Relax – and hopefully your child will follow suit
- Inform the staff in advance of your child’s likes and dislikes.
- If you need some extra time to talk to the teachers, make an appointment a few days in advance, rather than attempting to chat on your child’s first day
- The longer you stay, the more upset your child will become. As difficult as it is, walk away. Say a proper goodbye and reassure your child that you will be back
- Be patient. Your child might love it one day and hate it the next
- Stick at it. Don’t give up after the first day or week. It takes time for children to settle into a new routine.And, finally, don’t feel guilty.
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