The midterm elections will undoubtedly impact US foreign policy, with Democrats poised to obstruct Donald Trump’s agenda through their newly increased power in the House of Representatives. Mr Trump has said he is not worried about potential congressional investigations but Democrats are determined to put a spoke in the wheels of his foreign policy, even as they seem to be – albeit begrudgingly – planning to avoid pushing for impeachment amid fears they might be accused of deepening the rift among Americans to dangerous levels.
Russia is at the top of the Democrats’ list, given that they are convinced the Russians meddled in the presidential election that saw Hillary Clinton defeated. They will be scrutinising the US president's relationships in the Middle East. And there is Iran, which former president Barack Obama had cosied up to during his term in office, signalling that the most important part of his legacy was mending relations with Tehran by legitimising the regime there. He sealed a nuclear deal with its leaders in 2015, which was swiftly shredded by Mr Trump this year.
Mr Trump may or may not be right to downplay the impact of the Democratic momentum in Congress on his policies. But it would be a mistake for the countries concerned to see his sense of perspective as a guarantee of continuous foreign policy, because the anti-Trump media will now double down and partner with Democrats in Congress as they gear up to identify the weakest links.
For its part, Iran will be studying its options to find any opportunity and might resort to secret negotiations again to repair relations with Washington in the hope of striking a deal similar to the previous one. The Arab Gulf states must therefore pursue an in-depth reading of US-Iranian relations and make contingency plans in the event Washington backtracks from their demands regarding ending Iran's regional expansionism, in exchange for reforming the nuclear deal and normalising relations with Tehran. Abandoning allies and partners would be nothing new for US policy, where national interests are given an absolute priority, no matter the cost to America's reputation abroad.
During Mr Obama’s tenure, Tehran was determined to secure three key points: first, a recognition of the legitimacy of its regime, including non-interference in Iranian domestic affairs and refraining from supporting Iranian opposition factions. This was duly delivered by Mr Obama from the UN General Assembly rostrum. Second, the regime demanded recognition of its right to nuclear energy, which was secured under the nuclear deal. Third, it wanted tacit acceptance for its regional role and excursions, which were effectively sanctioned by the nuclear deal, as Iran insisted on excluding those issues during the negotiations and threatened to leave the table should they be raised. In addition, Iran sought to invalidate UN Security Council resolutions that crippled its ability to conduct military interventions, support proxy militias and deploy military personnel outside its borders.
According to one source in Washington familiar with the Tehran mindset, the Iranians might not be good at war “but they are good at negotiations”. Now after expanding the sanctions that the Trump administration thinks will force Tehran to accept the terms for new negotiations, it is possible the Iranian leadership will decide to contain Trump’s policies rather than challenge them, the source said.
Tehran has limited options. In terms of the economy, it faces a costly collapse that will have an impact both domestically and on its foreign projects, given the scope of new US sanctions. In other words, the regime could implode from within and the project to build a crescent of influence could stumble in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, even though the cost of Iranian intervention via the Houthi rebels in the latter country is not high.
Traditionally, Iran has resorted to patience and stalling in its foreign policy, to frustrate the other side and to underscore its resilience and persistence. However, there is a different scenario in play today. The Trump administration has a stronger appetite for patience, because the new sanctions are a direct threat to the rulers in Tehran and time is not on their side.
In Lebanon, Iran’s partners wanted to wait for the outcome of the US midterm election, hoping they would shackle Mr Trump’s hands. They must have seen an opportunity in the Democratic takeover of the House. However, the Iranian leadership is no doubt aware that a Republican-controlled Senate is more important than the House when it comes to major legislative decisions and that the time required to effectively challenge Mr Trump’s policies does not serve Iran’s more urgent needs.
In light of this, it is likely the rulers in Tehran will resort to secret negotiating channels to hold talks with officials in the Trump administration in the hope of pulling off a mutually beneficial deal. Today, there is an urgent need for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain to be crystal clear with the Trump administration and highlight their concerns over the US history of abandoning friends and allies, and to insist the issue of Iranian expansionism is not once again sidelined as a price for a deal with Iran that benefits Washington. It might be useful for these countries to remind Mr Trump that this was exactly what Mr Obama did. It is crucial for Arab Gulf states to draft a comprehensive strategy that would guarantee their interests and relations with the US, whether with the Republican administration or a Democratic House.
A wise strategy by the Arab Gulf states would be to conduct a frank review of the state of relations with the US, address the gaps boldly and transparently, and probe the ways they can meet the priorities and policy demands sought by Washington. Here, the first stop might be Yemen. Indeed, stopping the war in Yemen is a goal desired by both the Arab coalition and Washington. Compromise and concessions must be accepted as a necessary part of any political solution. Second, the Houthis must be encouraged to disengage from Iran. Third, Russia must be encouraged to pressure Iran to end its provocations against the Gulf states. And fourth, Washington must be encouraged and supported to lead the effort to end the war in Yemen and find workable solutions.
This is not the time to be complacent and assume everything is okay just because the Trump administration says so. In fact, the situation is very delicate. The US has never hidden the fact that its own national interests always come first and Mr Trump has never hidden the fact that making deals is his favourite game.
Results:
5pm: Baynunah Conditions (UAE bred) Dh80,000 1,400m.
Winner: Al Tiryaq, Dane O’Neill (jockey), Abdullah Al Hammadi (trainer).
5.30pm: Al Zahra Handicap (rated 0-45) Dh 80,000 1,400m:
Winner: Fahadd, Richard Mullen, Ahmed Al Mehairbi.
6pm: Al Ras Al Akhdar Maiden Dh80,000 1,600m.
Winner: Jaahiz, Jesus Rosales, Eric Lemartinel.
6.30pm: Al Reem Island Handicap Dh90,000 1,600m.
Winner: AF Al Jahed, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel.
7pm: Al Khubairah Handicap (TB) 100,000 2,200m.
Winner: Empoli, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
7.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap Dh80,000 2,200m.
Winner: Shivan OA, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Also on December 7 to 9, the third edition of the Gulf Car Festival (www.gulfcarfestival.com) will take over Dubai Festival City Mall, a new venue for the event. Last year's festival brought together about 900 cars worth more than Dh300 million from across the Emirates and wider Gulf region – and that first figure is set to swell by several hundred this time around, with between 1,000 and 1,200 cars expected. The first day is themed around American muscle; the second centres on supercars, exotics, European cars and classics; and the final day will major in JDM (Japanese domestic market) cars, tuned vehicles and trucks. Individuals and car clubs can register their vehicles, although the festival isn’t all static displays, with stunt drifting, a rev battle, car pulls and a burnout competition.
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
ILT20%20UAE%20stars
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ELEADING%20RUN%20SCORERS%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1%20Nicholas%20Pooran%2C%20261%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E2%20Muhammad%20Waseem%20(UAE)%2C%20248%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E3%20Chris%20Lynn%2C%20244%3Cbr%3E4%20Johnson%20Charles%2C%20232%3Cbr%3E5%20Kusal%20Perera%2C%20230%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBEST%20BOWLING%20AVERAGE%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E(minimum%2010%20overs%20bowled)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E1%20Zuhaib%20Zubair%20(UAE)%2C%209%20wickets%20at%2012.44%3Cbr%3E2%20Mohammed%20Rohid%20(UAE)%2C%207%20at%2013.00%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E3%20Fazalhaq%20Farooqi%2C%2017%20at%2013.05%3Cbr%3E4%20Waqar%20Salamkheil%2C%2010%20at%2014.08%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E5%20Aayan%20Khan%20(UAE)%2C%204%20at%2015.50%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E6%20Wanindu%20Hasaranga%2C%2012%20at%2016.25%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7%20Mohammed%20Jawadullah%20(UAE)%2C%2010%20at%2017.00%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ukraine
Capital: Kiev
Population: 44.13 million
Armed conflict in Donbass
Russia-backed fighters control territory
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Match info
What: Fifa Club World Cup play-off
Who: Al Ain v Team Wellington
Where: Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
When: Wednesday, kick off 7.30pm
KEY%20DATES%20IN%20AMAZON'S%20HISTORY
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Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
North Pole stats
Distance covered: 160km
Temperature: -40°C
Weight of equipment: 45kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 0
Terrain: Ice rock
South Pole stats
Distance covered: 130km
Temperature: -50°C
Weight of equipment: 50kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 3,300
Terrain: Flat ice
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
