Following US accusations of Iran being behind the recent attacks on tankers in the Gulf, tensions between the two countries are set to escalate further this week as decision-makers in Tehran continue to see the status quo as favouring them, and feel gleeful at the level of panic shown by the Europeans and the International Atomic Energy Agency. For its part, the US administration has adopted "strategic patience", content with its policy of economically strangling Iran to coerce it into negotiating a new deal that covers both its nuclear enrichment and its ballistic missiles and possibly its regional expansionism and regime reforms. Both sides want a deal but have mutually exclusive conditions and are preparing for the next step as they inch closer to a military confrontation.
Washington is now in the process of forming a naval alliance that Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the US, said would be ready within a fortnight with the aim of protecting navigation in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al Mandeb. This is while the US and Britain have blamed Iran for attacks on oil installations and tankers in the Gulf, with London deploying two British warships so far to the region.
Iran has responded to the formation of this US-led naval coalition by demanding all foreign forces leave the Middle East. The leadership in Tehran believes prolonging the current situation serves its interests and thus intends to escalate further. If the US fires first, Iran might attack US bases in Bahrain and Qatar. But the Trump administration will also escalate by greatly tightening the sanctions on Iran and its proxies, according to the US president. Sources said the sanctions would be tantamount to a full blockade of Iran, with the assets of Iranians and non-Iranians affiliated to the regime frozen.
Both sides are also preparing for a military showdown. According to sources, the US needs a week to ensure full readiness to do so, although its current deployment is sufficient for a swift military strike if necessary. Iran is also preparing its forces and proxies in the Arab region, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq. In other words, unless a deal precludes confrontation, the current trajectory of events indicates pending military hostilities in the Gulf and Middle East.
From the US perspective, meanwhile, and even from the perspective of some European countries, Iran’s violation of the cap on uranium enrichment cannot be ignored.
So far, all mediation efforts have failed to convince Iran to abandon its demands for an end to sanctions before agreeing to negotiate.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is still trying to play the role of broker with the Iranians to curb their escalation and attempts to provoke a US military strike. Mr Putin’s previous attempts have all failed but he continues his quest to stop military confrontation in its tracks.
Iran’s leaders, however, are dissatisfied with Russia’s "soft" position. Iran had wagered on Russia, China, and EU powers to help navigate a way out of US sanctions.
Yet so far, Iran’s escalation has backfired with the Europeans, who have distanced themselves from Iran and edged closer to the US, especially after Tehran increased uranium enrichment and exposed the flaws of the nuclear agreement. Iran also understands now that China is unwilling to enter the fray on its side. As for Russia, Iran has miscalculated in assuming the alliance with Russia in Syria would extend to the Gulf or to a US-Israeli-Iranian triangle.
If Iran crosses the threshold of uranium enrichment to 20 per cent in two months, it would cross an unacceptable red line for Europe, China, and Russia as well as the US.
The next level of putative sanctions could further rile the Iranian leadership and drive it either to more escalation or nudge it to adjust its behaviour and renegotiate the deal. This could take the form of a naval blockade and measures to prevent all countries from dealing with Iran and its proxies and further sanctions.
Arab Gulf countries do not want a war and are avoiding escalation. However, they want to be present at the negotiating table to decide issues affecting their security and future.
Iran will seek to use the looming US elections to test the American president, with a view to limiting negotiations only to the nuclear issue and ballistic missile programme.
If a grand bargain is reached, it is important for Arab countries to be part of it, or else it will be incomplete and precarious. If Mr Trump achieves the impossible and concludes such a deal, it might be a historic achievement that will please everyone.
Until then, Tehran and its allies are preparing themselves for a confrontation. Hezbollah in Lebanon is waiting for orders from Tehran, poised to respond to an Israeli strike on nuclear reactors in Iran. In the meantime, the group intends to respond to recent US sanctions on its senior members, not by directly attacking US interests but by forcing the Lebanese government to publicly denounce the sanctions and offer it support. The US has reportedly told the Lebanese government that such a stance might invite sanctions against the state, something Lebanese politicians will be keen to avoid.
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Palestine and Israel - live updates
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
The biog
Name: James Mullan
Nationality: Irish
Family: Wife, Pom; and daughters Kate, 18, and Ciara, 13, who attend Jumeirah English Speaking School (JESS)
Favourite book or author: “That’s a really difficult question. I’m a big fan of Donna Tartt, The Secret History. I’d recommend that, go and have a read of that.”
Dream: “It would be to continue to have fun and to work with really interesting people, which I have been very fortunate to do for a lot of my life. I just enjoy working with very smart, fun people.”
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Final scores
18 under: Tyrrell Hatton (ENG)
- 14: Jason Scrivener (AUS)
-13: Rory McIlroy (NIR)
-12: Rafa Cabrera Bello (ESP)
-11: David Lipsky (USA), Marc Warren (SCO)
-10: Tommy Fleetwood (ENG), Chris Paisley (ENG), Matt Wallace (ENG), Fabrizio Zanotti (PAR)
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
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Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
FIXTURES
Thu Mar 15 – West Indies v Afghanistan, UAE v Scotland
Fri Mar 16 – Ireland v Zimbabwe
Sun Mar 18 – Ireland v Scotland
Mon Mar 19 – West Indies v Zimbabwe
Tue Mar 20 – UAE v Afghanistan
Wed Mar 21 – West Indies v Scotland
Thu Mar 22 – UAE v Zimbabwe
Fri Mar 23 – Ireland v Afghanistan
The top two teams qualify for the World Cup
Classification matches
The top-placed side out of Papua New Guinea, Hong Kong or Nepal will be granted one-day international status. UAE and Scotland have already won ODI status, having qualified for the Super Six.
Thu Mar 15 – Netherlands v Hong Kong, PNG v Nepal
Sat Mar 17 – 7th-8th place playoff, 9th-10th place play-off
if you go
The flights
Emirates fly direct from Dubai to Houston, Texas, where United have direct flights to Managua. Alternatively, from October, Iberia will offer connections from Madrid, which can be reached by both Etihad from Abu Dhabi and Emirates from Dubai.
The trip
Geodyssey’s (Geodyssey.co.uk) 15-night Nicaragua Odyssey visits the colonial cities of Leon and Granada, lively country villages, the lake island of Ometepe and a stunning array of landscapes, with wildlife, history, creative crafts and more. From Dh18,500 per person, based on two sharing, including transfers and tours but excluding international flights. For more information, visit visitnicaragua.us.
Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”
Bookshops: A Reader's History by Jorge Carrión (translated from the Spanish by Peter Bush),
Biblioasis
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 268hp at 5,600rpm
Torque: 380Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: CVT auto
Fuel consumption: 9.5L/100km
On sale: now
Price: from Dh195,000
