Just a month after Lebanon introduced controversial austerity measures, Fitch has downgraded the nation’s credit rating to CCC. If the downgrading makes a mockery of Lebanon’s attempts to tighten its breeches, Fitch is not alone. Laughter echoed around the chamber last month when Lebanese MP Salam Saadeh addressed his fellow parliamentarians over the country’s first austerity budget: “The international donors know we’re lying and we know that they know we’re lying, so everything is fine,” he joked. Even long-time parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri couldn’t resist a chuckle.
Mr Saadeh might have a point about the so-called austerity budget. Financial analysts think the aim of reducing this year’s deficit to 6.59 per cent from last year’s 11.5 per cent is overly optimistic; they think it will be closer to 9.75 per cent. Bloomberg recently reported that payments to contractors and public entities have been delayed to bolster the figures. Other cost-saving measures are pinned on hopes of the government being able to issue treasury bonds at well below market interest rates, something Lebanese lenders are already refusing to do.
To date, the full details of the new budget have not been made public. The measures we do know of include a three-year freeze on state hiring, a 3 per cent tariff increase on imported goods, a tax hike on interest on deposits from 7 per cent to 10 per cent, cuts in government spending and a tax on military pensions. There have also been promises made in terms of overhauling the state-owned electricity company, which costs the government more than $2 billion a year in subsidies. These meagre measures will most likely fail to lower the budget deficit or truly put Lebanon's economy back on track. Ironically, Lebanese MPs scrapped a proposal to limit their own salaries, which they receive for life at a total cost of $20 million per year, paid by the Lebanese state.
Storm clouds have been brewing over the Lebanese economy for some time now. GDP growth has been hovering at less than 2 per cent over the last few years. But the real alarm bell that woke the Lebanese government came in January this year when Moody's further downgraded Lebanon's credit rating to junk over debt default concerns. The fallout from the downgrade caused the cost of insuring Lebanon's debt to skyrocket and spurred rumours of a debt haircut – a reduction applied to the value of an asset – and currency devaluation.
Further, Lebanon's debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise to nearly 180 per cent by 2023, surpassing that of Greece. The public debt has increased 1.3 per cent in the first three months of the year to $86.2bn from the end of last year. From 2005 until 2017, parliament did not even pass a formal budget, creating a lack of financial accountability. A public-sector wage increase in 2017, a decrease in remittances from Lebanese people working abroad and a decline in tourism due to political and regional instability have only exacerbated matters.
Faced with the third-highest public debt in the world and nearly non-existent economic growth, Lebanon has been forced to pass austerity measures in the hope of unlocking $11 billion in loans from Cedre conference donor countries and promises of investment hinged upon Lebanon correcting its finances. But those measures are a mere drop in the ocean. Lebanon’s structural problems and crippling corruption need to be tackled to solve its economic woes.
Despite the constant boast of the country being the "Switzerland of the Middle East", Lebanon ranks 138 out of 180 on Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index and 142 on the World Bank's ease of doing business scale. Its infrastructure is in disarray. The country lacks round-the-clock power and its landline internet speed ranks among the slowest in the world. The mounting garbage crisis, in a country that boasts natural beauty as one of its assets, is adding to its troubles.
There are still some members of the government banking on much-touted tourism to save the day. Yet Lebanon receives less than half the tourists neighbouring Cyprus does and a week-long package holiday is cheaper in nearby Turkey, which has a stronger tourism infrastructure. Years of unbridled construction have seen Beirut’s beautiful old houses disappear and large swathes of the country’s woodlands, among the major attractions in the country, have been cut down to make way for grandiose luxury property projects.
Tariff hikes and bailouts will not be enough to save Lebanon. With such high levels of debt and borrowing costs, the country has very little bandwidth to continue without real reforms.
The government must adopt a long-term strategy and economic vision for the country. Lebanon still has some of the best universities and hospitals in the region, coupled with a high literacy rate. There is no reason the country could not attract major foreign investment and regain its former glory days as a major financial hub. Donor countries should push for the privatisation of corrupt state-run companies, and revisions in investment laws and the bureaucracy to open up the country’s business landscape. Only then will Lebanon be on stable ground and enjoy the prospect of growth.
Paul Gadalla is a former Beirut-based journalist who worked in communications at the Carnegie Middle East Centre. He has an MA in political science with a focus on the Middle East from Northeastern University in the US
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20OneOrder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20March%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tamer%20Amer%20and%20Karim%20Maurice%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cairo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E82%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Series%20A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
If you go
The flights
There are various ways of getting to the southern Serengeti in Tanzania from the UAE. The exact route and airstrip depends on your overall trip itinerary and which camp you’re staying at.
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Kilimanjaro International Airport from Dh1,350 return, including taxes; this can be followed by a short flight from Kilimanjaro to the Serengeti with Coastal Aviation from about US$700 (Dh2,500) return, including taxes. Kenya Airways, Emirates and Etihad offer flights via Nairobi or Dar es Salaam.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
EA%20Sports%20FC%2024
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20EA%20Vancouver%2C%20EA%20Romania%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20EA%20Sports%3Cbr%3EConsoles%3A%20Nintendo%20Switch%2C%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20One%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
NEW%20UTILITY%20POLICY%3A%20WHAT%20DOES%20IT%20REGULATE%3F
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Agreements%20on%20energy%20and%20water%20supply%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Applied%20service%20fees%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customer%20data%20and%20information%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Prohibition%20of%20service%20disconnections%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customer%20complaint%20process%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Management%20of%20debts%20and%20customers%20in%20default%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Services%20provided%20to%20people%20of%20determination%20and%20home%20care%20customers%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20Last%20White%20Man
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Mohsin%20Hamid%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E192%20pages%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPublished%20by%3A%20Hamish%20Hamilton%20(UK)%2C%20Riverhead%20Books%20(US)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERelease%20date%3A%20out%20now%20in%20the%20US%2C%20August%2011%20(UK)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
%20Ramez%20Gab%20Min%20El%20Akher
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStreaming%20on%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMBC%20Shahid%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
