Last week former Israeli Mossad chief Tamir Pardo proposed an idea that, he said, would “defeat” Hezbollah. Mr Pardo recommended that the US impose sanctions on Lebanon. These would be much more effective than a war against the party, he said, if "there was a clear message that sanctions would only be removed if Hezbollah gave up its arms or was absorbed entirely into the Lebanese army and Iran [withdrew] its tentacles completely from Lebanon”.
In making such a suggestion, the former Mossad official adopted an increasingly familiar line of those who are desperately searching for a way to be rid of Hezbollah. Amid signs of the party's predominance in Lebanon – a model that has evidently appealed to its allies throughout the Middle East, including the Houthis – an increasing number of voices have suggested targeting Lebanese national institutions as a way of curbing Hezbollah's power.
Proponents of this approach reject the warning that destroying the institutions of the Lebanese state (and sanctions would certainly push the fragile economy over the edge) can only favour Hezbollah. They argue that because the party controls many of these institutions, undermining them would harm the party. So they blithely suggest that attacking the state, its economy and army, would lead to the magical end to which they aspire, namely Hezbollah's downfall.
The problem with this idea, apart from the folly of creating another failed state in the region, is that it offers a superficial understanding of how Lebanon functions. It is undeniable that Hezbollah has major influence over the country but it is also true that the institutions of the state and Lebanese society respond to a much broader array of interests that in many cases are antithetical to Hezbollah’s, even if the group’s weapons make effective opposition difficult.
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Read more:
Lebanon must not be haven for Houthis after Hezbollah meeting
Tony Blair institute calls on Europe to ban Hezbollah
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If one is expecting easy solutions with regard to Hezbollah, that won’t happen. Harming the state only risks undermining latent poles of opposition to the party. And Mr Pardo’s “solution” is unlikely to be more successful than other efforts to make Lebanon pay a price for Hezbollah.
For starters, the Iranian regime couldn’t care less about Lebanon’s economy. Moreover, Mr Pardo’s proposal is built on a false premise. He believes that economic pain would push the Lebanese to act against the party. But for many of them, turning against Hezbollah would entail provoking civil conflict, because the party will not voluntarily dissolve itself or cut ties with Tehran. In fact, it will resist doing so. Between economic pain and the pain of civil war, the Lebanese will choose the former.
Then there is the fact that the Lebanese have already paid a heavy price for Hezbollah and there was little they could do about this. In 2006, the party provoked a war with Israel that destroyed Lebanon's infrastructure and led to almost two years of instability as the parliamentary majority and Hezbollah confronted each other.
The impact of this on Hezbollah’s fortunes was limited. But destroying the Lebanese economy and impoverishing much of society will only erode the power of a state that represents an alternative model to Hezbollah’s. What governments have realised is that this notion of an alternative model is essential. In certain situations where its power has slipped, the party has had to rely on the state, which the state exploited to cross previous red lines imposed by Hezbollah.
By embodying an alternative to the party, the state might be able one day to tilt the balance to its advantage. In the late 1980s, popular exasperation with wartime militias made many people support the Lebanese army with greater vigour. The army commander at the time benefited from this mood and happens to be Lebanon’s president today.
Certainly, such a process will be slow but undermining the state and economy would only play into Hezbollah’s hands. Hezbollah has always sought to discredit the state because what the state gains, the party loses. Systematically, Hezbollah has striven to undercut the state’s and army’s credibility to cover up for its own shortcomings. So pushing foreign countries to add to this by targeting the Lebanese state would only allow Hezbollah to pursue its agenda without credible state institutions left in place to act as rallying points for its opponents.
Recommending collective punishment is a familiar arrow in the quiver of Israeli officials. But rarely does it seem to work. If anything, it heightens polarisation that only benefits those advocating for the strongest line, in this case Hezbollah, which has the guns to make its arguments prevail. Mr Pardo is like all the others who believe they have found the silver bullet that will resolve the Hezbollah problem. He imagines that more ruin will advance things.
But the Israelis have bombed Lebanon on countless occasions, just as they have Gaza. Yet none of this has changed much, except to strengthen the argument of Hezbollah and Hamas that the military option against Israel is the only valid one. Israel or the US can severely damage Lebanon's state and society with little effort. However, in the end, there is a very high probability that Hezbollah will be left standing alone, with no one in a position to question its actions.
Michael Young is editor of Diwan, the blog of the Carnegie Middle East programme, in Beirut
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
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If you go
The flights
Emirates (www.emirates.com) and Etihad (www.etihad.com) both fly direct to Bengaluru, with return fares from Dh 1240. From Bengaluru airport, Coorg is a five-hour drive by car.
The hotels
The Tamara (www.thetamara.com) is located inside a working coffee plantation and offers individual villas with sprawling views of the hills (tariff from Dh1,300, including taxes and breakfast).
When to go
Coorg is an all-year destination, with the peak season for travel extending from the cooler months between October and March.
Essentials
The flights: You can fly from the UAE to Iceland with one stop in Europe with a variety of airlines. Return flights with Emirates from Dubai to Stockholm, then Icelandair to Reykjavik, cost from Dh4,153 return. The whole trip takes 11 hours. British Airways flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Reykjavik, via London, with return flights taking 12 hours and costing from Dh2,490 return, including taxes.
The activities: A half-day Silfra snorkelling trip costs 14,990 Icelandic kronur (Dh544) with Dive.is. Inside the Volcano also takes half a day and costs 42,000 kronur (Dh1,524). The Jokulsarlon small-boat cruise lasts about an hour and costs 9,800 kronur (Dh356). Into the Glacier costs 19,500 kronur (Dh708). It lasts three to four hours.
The tours: It’s often better to book a tailor-made trip through a specialist operator. UK-based Discover the World offers seven nights, self-driving, across the island from £892 (Dh4,505) per person. This includes three nights’ accommodation at Hotel Husafell near Into the Glacier, two nights at Hotel Ranga and two nights at the Icelandair Hotel Klaustur. It includes car rental, plus an iPad with itinerary and tourist information pre-loaded onto it, while activities can be booked as optional extras. More information inspiredbyiceland.com
Essentials
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Malaysia Airlines all fly direct from the UAE to Kuala Lumpur and on to Penang from about Dh2,300 return, including taxes.
Where to stay
In Kuala Lumpur, Element is a recently opened, futuristic hotel high up in a Norman Foster-designed skyscraper. Rooms cost from Dh400 per night, including taxes. Hotel Stripes, also in KL, is a great value design hotel, with an infinity rooftop pool. Rooms cost from Dh310, including taxes.
In Penang, Ren i Tang is a boutique b&b in what was once an ancient Chinese Medicine Hall in the centre of Little India. Rooms cost from Dh220, including taxes.
23 Love Lane in Penang is a luxury boutique heritage hotel in a converted mansion, with private tropical gardens. Rooms cost from Dh400, including taxes.
In Langkawi, Temple Tree is a unique architectural villa hotel consisting of antique houses from all across Malaysia. Rooms cost from Dh350, including taxes.
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The years Ramadan fell in May
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The biog:
Languages: Arabic, Farsi, Hindi, basic Russian
Favourite food: Pizza
Best food on the road: rice
Favourite colour: silver
Favourite bike: Gold Wing, Honda
Favourite biking destination: Canada
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
UAE and Russia in numbers
UAE-Russia ties stretch back 48 years
Trade between the UAE and Russia reached Dh12.5 bn in 2018
More than 3,000 Russian companies are registered in the UAE
Around 40,000 Russians live in the UAE
The number of Russian tourists travelling to the UAE will increase to 12 percent to reach 1.6 million in 2023
At Eternity’s Gate
Director: Julian Schnabel
Starring: Willem Dafoe, Oscar Isaacs, Mads Mikkelsen
Three stars
if you go
The flights
Emirates flies to Delhi with fares starting from around Dh760 return, while Etihad fares cost about Dh783 return. From Delhi, there are connecting flights to Lucknow.
Where to stay
It is advisable to stay in Lucknow and make a day trip to Kannauj. A stay at the Lebua Lucknow hotel, a traditional Lucknowi mansion, is recommended. Prices start from Dh300 per night (excluding taxes).
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
The bio:
Favourite film:
Declan: It was The Commitments but now it’s Bohemian Rhapsody.
Heidi: The Long Kiss Goodnight.
Favourite holiday destination:
Declan: Las Vegas but I also love getting home to Ireland and seeing everyone back home.
Heidi: Australia but my dream destination would be to go to Cuba.
Favourite pastime:
Declan: I love brunching and socializing. Just basically having the craic.
Heidi: Paddleboarding and swimming.
Personal motto:
Declan: Take chances.
Heidi: Live, love, laugh and have no regrets.
England's Ashes squad
Joe Root (captain), Moeen Ali, Jimmy Anderson, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Stuart Broad, Rory Burns, Jos Buttler, Sam Curran, Joe Denly, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, Olly Stone, Chris Woakes.
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
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Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
