In recent years, Russian policy in the Middle East has approximated what the US had hoped to achieve when Barack Obama and Donald Trump took office. That’s not to say the US presidents aspired to replicate Vladimir Putin but that they always sought to do more with less.
The Russian approach in Syria is a good illustration of this. In relative terms, it hasn't cost much; it has also allowed Moscow to triangulate − meaning to place itself in an axial position between contending parties, in such a way as to exploit their differences to its advantage. Russia has respected state sovereignty while showing a marked preference for maintaining the status quo, not unlike the non-interventionism enunciated by Mr Obama and Mr Trump.
Neither US administration might have ever outlined its goal in the Middle East quite in this way. However, in the nine years since Mr Obama took office, Washington has adopted political realism as a guiding principle and what Russia is doing today is fundamentally realist in its orientation.
Why is this important? Because Russia, like the US before it, has grasped how the Middle East can eat up its valuable resources but has adapted to regional dynamics more easily than the Americans. In the process, it has accumulated power, despite a weak hand. If Mr Trump and his successors want to retain US influence, they will have to stop giving Russia a free ride in the region.
Moscow began by exploiting the ambiguities of the American administrations towards their Arab allies. Under Mr Obama, the US never defined how it could draw down its forces in the Middle East while also retaining US power. In fact, it didn’t try. Rather, it sought to engineer a new regional equilibrium by empowering Iran through the nuclear deal with Tehran, so that Arabs and Iranians could balance each other out and allow America to reduce its forces.
This effort was viewed by the Gulf states as a betrayal, provoking a strong backlash. Ultimately, Mr Trump reversed his predecessor’s efforts by pulling out of the nuclear deal. Yet his intentions in the region are not much clearer than Mr Obama’s. He is certainly intent on containing Iran but until now, his way of doing so has been through economic sanctions, not military means. That doesn’t reassure the Gulf states, who are wary of Iran’s daily actions on the ground.
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Paradoxically, by virtue of its secondary status in the region compared to the US, Russia was able to be more flexible. It reinforced ties with competing states to position itself as a mediator in regional conflicts. It did so in Syria between Iran and Israel, and Iran and Turkey, even as the campaign against ISIS allowed it to manoeuvre between the US, the Syrian regime, Iraq and Iran at various stages of fighting the terrorist group.
Washington, because it had no relations with either Tehran or the Syrian regime, could not take its new-found pragmatism far after 2011. Instead, in Syria it was caught between staking out a moral position on chemical weapons, then abandoning it when it realised this might involve America in a new war. In that way, it alienated its allies and showed its foes that the US was a paper tiger.
Mr Trump derided this in Mr Obama and rightly so. But what has he offered as a palliative? Raising the heat on Iran does not imply having a broader strategy for the region. The US has excluded itself from a say in post-war Syria by not being at the table in the Astana process; its relations with one of its oldest Arab allies, Egypt, have become somewhat distant; Mr Trump is liked in the Gulf but no one is at all sure how far he will go in opposing Iran.
With regards to Israel, the Trump administration has certainly greatly improved its relationship, largely at the expense of the Palestinians. Yet it hasn’t really calculated what this might mean for its standing among Arab states in possible future negotiations, or how its isolation of the Palestinians might affect its ally Jordan.
Russia has turned all this to its advantage. In recently proposing an arrangement to repatriate Syrian refugees, it found a sympathetic ear in Amman; it developed ties with Israel, allowing it to play Israel and Iran off against each other in Syria; Russia benefited from deficient US-Egyptian ties to open a path to Cairo; it used Lebanon’s isolation to build networks in the country; and it sidestepped the Israeli-Palestinian minefield by recognising West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, while reaffirming that East Jerusalem must be the capital of a Palestinian state.
All this is not to say that Russia will replace the US as the major outside power in the region. However, by filling the spaces left by Washington, the Russians have been able to achieve much with relatively limited means. Until the Trump administration can define a more comprehensive approach to the region, beyond merely opposing Iran, Russia will continue to find openings it can use.
Michael Young is editor of Diwan, the blog of the Carnegie Middle East programme, in Beirut
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If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
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- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
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What is type-1 diabetes
Type 1 diabetes is a genetic and unavoidable condition, rather than the lifestyle-related type 2 diabetes.
It occurs mostly in people under 40 and a result of the pancreas failing to produce enough insulin to regulate blood sugars.
Too much or too little blood sugar can result in an attack where sufferers lose consciousness in serious cases.
Being overweight or obese increases the chances of developing the more common type 2 diabetes.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mobile phone packages comparison
Basquiat in Abu Dhabi
One of Basquiat’s paintings, the vibrant Cabra (1981–82), now hangs in Louvre Abu Dhabi temporarily, on loan from the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.
The latter museum is not open physically, but has assembled a collection and puts together a series of events called Talking Art, such as this discussion, moderated by writer Chaedria LaBouvier.
It's something of a Basquiat season in Abu Dhabi at the moment. Last week, The Radiant Child, a documentary on Basquiat was shown at Manarat Al Saadiyat, and tonight (April 18) the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi is throwing the re-creation of a party tonight, of the legendary Canal Zone party thrown in 1979, which epitomised the collaborative scene of the time. It was at Canal Zone that Basquiat met prominent members of the art world and moved from unknown graffiti artist into someone in the spotlight.
“We’ve invited local resident arists, we’ll have spray cans at the ready,” says curator Maisa Al Qassemi of the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.
Guggenheim Abu Dhabi's Canal Zone Remix is at Manarat Al Saadiyat, Thursday April 18, from 8pm. Free entry to all. Basquiat's Cabra is on view at Louvre Abu Dhabi until October
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
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5. Never share authentication data such as passwords, card PINs and OTPs (one-time passwords) with third parties
6. Track bank notifications regarding transaction discrepancies
7. Report lost or stolen debit and credit cards immediately
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
'Champions'
Director: Manuel Calvo
Stars: Yassir Al Saggaf and Fatima Al Banawi
Rating: 2/5
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
if you go
Sheikh Zayed's poem
When it is unveiled at Abu Dhabi Art, the Standing Tall exhibition will appear as an interplay of poetry and art. The 100 scarves are 100 fragments surrounding five, figurative, female sculptures, and both sculptures and scarves are hand-embroidered by a group of refugee women artisans, who used the Palestinian cross-stitch embroidery art of tatreez. Fragments of Sheikh Zayed’s poem Your Love is Ruling My Heart, written in Arabic as a love poem to his nation, are embroidered onto both the sculptures and the scarves. Here is the English translation.
Your love is ruling over my heart
Your love is ruling over my heart, even a mountain can’t bear all of it
Woe for my heart of such a love, if it befell it and made it its home
You came on me like a gleaming sun, you are the cure for my soul of its sickness
Be lenient on me, oh tender one, and have mercy on who because of you is in ruins
You are like the Ajeed Al-reem [leader of the gazelle herd] for my country, the source of all of its knowledge
You waddle even when you stand still, with feet white like the blooming of the dates of the palm
Oh, who wishes to deprive me of sleep, the night has ended and I still have not seen you
You are the cure for my sickness and my support, you dried my throat up let me go and damp it
Help me, oh children of mine, for in his love my life will pass me by.
New schools in Dubai
