Containment, rather than breakthrough, may be the theme of the talks being held in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent UN Security Council member states plus Germany. The purpose of the negotiations is to revive the nuclear deal signed by the same group of countries in 2015. In parallel, Iranian escalation against the US – a member of the so-called "P5" alongside Britain, China, France and Russia – cannot be ruled out, as such a scenario would serve Tehran's interests ahead of its presidential election in June.
China and Russia, both allied to Iran, seem to have approached these talks slightly differently.
Moscow has thrown its support behind Tehran’s demand for the US to immediately lift sanctions on its ability to buy weapons and sell oil. Russia is currently pressing for a significant arms deal with Iran and is not keen on Washington’s proposal of lifting sanctions gradually. Beijing, on the other hand, is decidedly calmer, as it balances its large investments in Iran with its economic and energy relations with key Arab states.
Read More from Raghida Dergham
The issue of any country selling weapons to Iran is contentious for the US. The previous Trump administration had vowed to impose sanctions on China and Russia, aimed specifically at their financial sectors, if they chose to do so. However, neither power seems to expect the Biden administration to retaliate against potential violations. There is also a sense that neither power is all that interested in facilitating US-Iran rapprochement. Rather, each is working to ensure that any accord or breakthrough occurs through its own efforts.
A question worth raising, then, is how able or willing are Gulf states to use their leverage with China and Russia to influence their policies, which indirectly fuel Iran’s domestic and regional projects that regional states view as threats to their national security and the security of other Arab states.
In a recent conversation, Joel Rayburn, who was US special envoy to Syria and deputy assistant secretary for Levant Affairs in the Trump administration, told me that key Arab states have sufficient leverage and may need to use it. Mr Rayburn said: “The nuclear agreement between Iran and other powers addresses none” of the problems of the region, which amount to “an existential problem for the countries of the Middle East”.
Other experts I spoke to recently have also pointed to China and Russia’s desire for neutrality given their interests both in Iran and the Arab world.
Matthew McInnis, Research Director at the Institute for the Study of War, said China will be eager not to get dragged into potential conflicts in the region. The Chinese, Mr McInnis said, see their strategic agreement with Iran “as a way to improve their overall position in the region and continue to assert their influence and pushing back against US and western roles there”. But as he pointed out, they also have investment in many Arab states “and they're not putting all their eggs into the Iranian basket”.
However, there is a theory that, when push comes to shove, one or both of Iran and China will struggle to maintain neutrality.
According to Abdulrahman Al-Rashed, Chairman of Al Arabiya's Editorial Board, fostering peace between trading partners will be desired but “the reality is that it is almost impossible to implement”. One of the reasons for this is Russia’s limited financial muscle, at least in comparison to that of China. Mr Al-Rashed said that China’s financial capabilities and influence were large enough that “they can afford to be friends with both sides, [while] the Russians actually cannot. So, eventually the Russians have to take sides”.
The other reason for why peace in the region is not guaranteed is Iran’s own politics.
The increasingly influential Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dictates Iran’s foreign and nuclear policies – and that much is evident in the Vienna talks. The IRGC's domestic priority is to reduce the influence of liberals in Iran’s electoral landscape, so that it can rule overtly without the cover of the moderates, represented by the likes of President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.
Iran's adversarial relations with the US is electorally and strategically expedient for the IRGC, especially since the withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East is one of its goals. Moreover, Iran’s foreign policy is predicated on ideological expansion carried out by IRGC-backed militias in some Arab countries. In fact, it is for this reason that Iran has refused to allow the P5+1 group to discuss the issue of its regional agenda in Vienna – just like it did during the 2015 negotiations.
The consequent nuclear deal helped unlock funds with which the IRGC further expanded into Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. And this is why former US president Donald Trump pulled his country out of the agreement in 2018.
Today, the IRGC senses that history is repeating itself – especially with Mr Trump no longer in office
Today, the IRGC senses that history is repeating itself – especially with Mr Trump no longer in office. If the Vienna talks lead to a breakthrough, the IRGC will be the biggest beneficiary. That said, the failure of the talks – or at least containing their success until after the Iranian election – is more expedient for it. For it does not actively seek a breakthrough or the lifting of sanctions with Mr Rouhani and Mr Zarif still in government, as that might give the so-called liberals a win ahead of the presidential election. Moreover, funds may not be that much of a concern now that Iran’s strategic partnership agreement with China is in place.
It is also important to note that, it isn’t Britain but Germany that is playing the lead role in the Vienna talks. This reflects a European position that is less interested in Tehran’s regional agenda than it is in tackling the issue of its nuclear weapons programme. It seems willing to offer concessions to Iran, including meeting its demand to continue enriching uranium “within reasonable limits” and continuing the programme despite Tehran's denial of full access to UN nuclear inspectors.
The Biden team is, no doubt, aware of the challenges of the Vienna process. But it is determined to seek a breakthrough that still seems far-fetched. The concern now is that it may end up relinquishing whatever leverage it has for getting a deal.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National
Scoreline
Al Wasl 1 (Caio Canedo 90 1')
Al Ain 2 (Ismail Ahmed 3', Marcus Berg 50')
Red cards: Ismail Ahmed (Al Ain) 77'
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre, six-cylinder
Transmission: six-speed manual
Power: 395bhp
Torque: 420Nm
Price: from Dh321,200
On sale: now
Under-21 European Championship Final
Germany 1 Spain 0
Weiser (40')
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
SQUADS
India
Virat Kohli (captain), Rohit Sharma (vice-captain), Shikhar Dhawan, Ajinkya Rahane, Manish Pandey, Kedar Jadhav, Dinesh Karthik, Mahendra Singh Dhoni (wicketkeeper), Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Yuzvendra Chahal, Jasprit Bumrah, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Shardul Thakur
New Zealand
Kane Williamson (captain), Martin Guptill, Colin Munro, Ross Taylor, Tom Latham (wicketkeeper), Henry Nicholls, Ish Sodhi, George Worker, Glenn Phillips, Matt Henry, Colin de Grandhomme, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Adam Milne, Trent Boult
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Four motivational quotes from Alicia's Dubai talk
“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”
“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”
“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”
“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”
The National in Davos
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: Turbocharged four-cylinder 2.7-litre
Power: 325hp
Torque: 500Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh189,700
On sale: now
Kandahar%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ric%20Roman%20Waugh%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EGerard%20Butler%2C%20Navid%20Negahban%2C%20Ali%20Fazal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The team
Photographer: Mateusz Stefanowski at Art Factory
Videographer: Jear Valasquez
Fashion director: Sarah Maisey
Make-up: Gulum Erzincan at Art Factory
Model: Randa at Art Factory Videographer’s assistant: Zanong Magat
Photographer’s assistant: Sophia Shlykova
With thanks to Jubail Mangrove Park, Jubail Island, Abu Dhabi
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eco%20Way%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Kroshnyi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electric%20vehicles%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bootstrapped%20with%20undisclosed%20funding.%20Looking%20to%20raise%20funds%20from%20outside%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ENGLAND SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Jack Butland, Jordan Pickford, Nick Pope
Defenders: John Stones, Harry Maguire, Phil Jones, Kyle Walker, Kieran Trippier, Gary Cahill, Ashley Young, Danny Rose, Trent Alexander-Arnold
Midfielders: Eric Dier, Jordan Henderson, Dele Alli, Jesse Lingard, Raheem Sterling, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Fabian Delph
Forwards: Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, Marcus Rashford, Danny Welbeck
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Ain Dubai in numbers
126: The length in metres of the legs supporting the structure
1 football pitch: The length of each permanent spoke is longer than a professional soccer pitch
16 A380 Airbuses: The equivalent weight of the wheel rim.
9,000 tonnes: The amount of steel used to construct the project.
5 tonnes: The weight of each permanent spoke that is holding the wheel rim in place
192: The amount of cable wires used to create the wheel. They measure a distance of 2,4000km in total, the equivalent of the distance between Dubai and Cairo.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Anti-semitic attacks
The annual report by the Community Security Trust, which advises the Jewish community on security , warned on Thursday that anti-Semitic incidents in Britain had reached a record high.
It found there had been 2,255 anti-Semitic incidents reported in 2021, a rise of 34 per cent from the previous year.
The report detailed the convictions of a number of people for anti-Semitic crimes, including one man who was jailed for setting up a neo-Nazi group which had encouraged “the eradication of Jewish people” and another who had posted anti-Semitic homemade videos on social media.
How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
RESULTS
6.30pm: Maiden Dh 165,000 1,600m
Winner: Superior, Connor Beasley (jockey), Ahmad bin Harmash (trainer)
7.05pm: Handicap Dh 185,000 2,000m
Winner: Tried And True, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
7.40pm: Maiden Dh 165,000 1,600m
Winner: Roy Orbison, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
8.15pm
Handicap Dh 190,000 1,400m
Winner: Taamol, Dane O’Neill, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
8.50pm
Handicap Dh 175,000 1,600m
Winner: Welford, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
9.25pm: Handicap Dh 175,000 1,200m
Winner: Lavaspin, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
10pm: Handicap Dh 165,000 1,600m
Winner: Untold Secret, Xavier Ziani, Sandeep Jadhav
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Quick%20facts
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Stormy seas
Weather warnings show that Storm Eunice is soon to make landfall. The videographer and I are scrambling to return to the other side of the Channel before it does. As we race to the port of Calais, I see miles of wire fencing topped with barbed wire all around it, a silent ‘Keep Out’ sign for those who, unlike us, aren’t lucky enough to have the right to move freely and safely across borders.
We set sail on a giant ferry whose length dwarfs the dinghies migrants use by nearly a 100 times. Despite the windy rain lashing at the portholes, we arrive safely in Dover; grateful but acutely aware of the miserable conditions the people we’ve left behind are in and of the privilege of choice.
The specs: 2019 Aston Martin DBS Superleggera
Price, base: Dh1.2 million
Engine: 5.2-litre twin-turbo V12
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 725hp @ 6,500pm
Torque: 900Nm @ 1,800rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.3L / 100km (estimate)
